The Seattle Mariners are going to clinch a postseason berth this week. In all likelihood, they are going to win the AL West for the first time since 2001. And it is increasingly likely that they will end up with a first-round bye if and when they finish with the second-best record in the American League. If they simply split the final six games of the season, they will get to 90 wins.

Drayer: The first-place Mariners explain why it’s all coming together now

We can now safely expect every single one of those outcomes. But that sure wasn’t the case six months ago as we settled in for the start of the season. Most projections and predictions (including my own) ranged from 83-87 wins and very few were mentioning this team among the top contenders in the league.

What changed? How has this team exceeded expectations?

Let me be clear, the answer to this question could fill up tomes. Each player on the roster, many who are no longer on it, coaches, managers, front office types and our old friend lady luck have all played a role. But for the purposes of this column, I’ll give you four players whose pleasantly surprising seasons have put the Mariners in prime position.

1. Cal Raleigh.

This one isn’t a huge surprise, but nothing has been more important this year than Cal’s superstar turn.

Cal was not a question mark and no one expected him to regress. We knew he would be a top defensive catcher, high quality leader and power threat in the middle of the lineup. I would have assumed he’d hit 25-35 home runs and be a three-true-outcome hitter that would pile up some RBI stats if the runners got on base in front of him.

I would have been right, too… if only the season ended after 81 games. ZIPS projected Cal to hit 28 home runs and drive in 80 for the season. He has more than doubled the first number and exceeded the RBI total by 41 (so far). Wow.

Of course, it’s not just the numbers. Finding a superstar has helped legitimize the lineup, affecting pitchers and managers trying to strategize against it. Cal contributed to so many wins in the first half that the team was able to buy at the deadline and continue to improve the roster. He has been the ultimate force multiplier.

2. Jorge Polanco.

Raise your hand if you were excited when the Mariners signed Polanco back for a second chance. Raise it even higher if your eyes didn’t bulge out of your skull when you found out he was going to be playing third base. I’m going to guess most of us have our hands safely in our laps.

Polanco’s bounce back has been enormous. He was, last year, a mess. He suffered through the worst season of his career, dealt with a series of injuries, and tanked his value heading into free agency. He didn’t hit well enough in 2024 to justify playing second base regularly, let alone third or DH. ZIPS rated him as the 15th most valuable position player on the roster, behind Samad Taylor and Ryan Bliss and just ahead of Cade Marlowe. And yet…

His 2025 OPS is more than 160 points higher than last season. His 30 doubles is tied for second on the team (just one behind Julio Rodríguez) and his 74 RBIs rank third.

But, much like Cal, his effect on the team goes well beyond the numbers. He lengthens the lineup and forces opposing pitchers to walk a legitimate gauntlet. He cleans up runners left on base. Polanco’s late game at-bats are consistently impressive. He grinds opposing pitchers. He has solidified the DH position, left essentially vacant in Seattle since the departure of Nelson Cruz. And his ability to play some second base has allowed them to use that DH spot elsewhere at times.

3. Dominic Canzone

There has been no more surprising story on this team this year to me than Canzone’s success. After watching him over the past two seasons, I had him pegged as a Quad-A player: too good for Triple-A but not a legitimate major leaguer. At 27 years old, I would have bet on the more athletic Marlowe contributing more to this team’s success, especially given their organizational turn towards speed and aggressiveness.

I was way, WAY wrong! As of today, Canzone has the second-highest OPS on the team. Yes, his .827 OPS is higher than that of Julio, Polanco, Randy Arozarena and Josh Naylor. And while he hasn’t played an entire season, 250 plate appearances is more than enough to count his improvement as impactful and (hopefully) real and predictive.

The M’s were counting on Victor Robles to hold down right field. When he went down, the position became an offensive (and at times defensive) black hole. Dylan Moore, Leody Taveras and Miles Mastrobuoni started way too many games at what is usually a power position. Canzone not only solidified it, he made it a positive. And that allowed them to fill other, more pressing needs in the infield at the deadline.

4. Bryan Woo.

The Mariners are built on pitching. Starting pitching, to be more specific. But of the five starters heading into the spring, four have under-performed to some extent.

Not Woo.

He pitched like the ace of the team right from the very start of the season. He overcame his reputation as a starter who needed to be coached late into games and babied through the season. His 186 2/3 innings pitched leads the team by a wide margin (only Luis Castillo is within 60 innings of him), and his incredible run of getting through six innings in nearly every start has not only helped him win the games he starts, but it’s had a profound impact on the bullpen in the game that follow.

ESPN’s Paul Hembekides pointed out that, as of Sept. 11, the Mariners bullpen had a 3.83 ERA overall and 3.62 ERA in games that Bryan Woo started. But that number dropped to 1.82 in games immediately after his starts.

Incredible stat shows M’s success owed even more to Woo than you’d think

In a season where the one thing you could count on became unstable, Bryan Woo became a foundational piece for this rotation.

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Morosi: M’s showing designs on ‘winning the whole darn thing’
• ESPN’s Ravech: Mariners sweep of Astros ‘a very loud statement’
• Job ‘not finished’ for first-place Seattle Mariners after huge sweep
• The Mariners can clinch a playoff spot as soon as Tuesday
• Seattle Mariners’ magic number to win AL West down to three