Breaking down why Detroit Tigers pitcher Troy Melton features ‘elite stuff’
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The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians are fighting desperately for the American League Central division title.
What was once a 14-game edge for the Tigers – and a 15½-game deficit for the Guardians – is now just one game, as the Tigers attempt to hold onto the lead for their first Central crown since winning four straight from 2011-14.
There are six games left for both teams, but the division will most likely decided by the next three, as the Tigers (85-71) and Guardians (84-72) tussle at Progressive Field in Cleveland from Sept. 23-25. The series begins on Tuesday, Sept. 23 (6:40 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Detroit), with left-hander Tarik Skubal on the mound for the Tigers and right-hander Gavin Williams pitching for the Guardians.
With the division standings so close, the Tigers’ magic number – the combined total of Tigers wins and Guardians losses to clinch the title – is six. That means the Tigers could clinch with a sweep of this week’s series, especially as that would give them the tiebreaker of the season series, currently led by the Guardians, 6-4.
The team that doesn’t win the division could wind up with the AL’s final wild-card spot, as the Guardians are tied with the Houston Astros at 84 wins.
Tigers playoff odds, win projections
Baseball Reference: The Tigers have the edge from BBref, though only barely, with a projected 88.3 wins to the Guardians’ 87.4. That edge is still only good for a 59.3% shot at the division. BBref is slightly more confident in the Tigers’ playoff odds, placing them at 84.1%, ahead of the Guardians at 67.1% and the Astros at 55.1%, though, oddly enough, the wild-card projection is Tigers/Astros.
Baseball Prospectus: Different algorithm, same margin, with the Tigers (88.4) getting a 0.9-win edge over the Guardians (87.5). That’s good enough to give the Tigers 63.9% odds of winning the Central (but not enough for a first-round bye) and an 83.3% chance of making the playoffs. (The wild-card round matchup? A rematch with the Guardians.)
FanGraphs: The Tigers get the clean sweep of the computers, checking in at 88.1 wins to the Guardians’ 86.8, a 63.6% chance of taking the Central and an 85.4% chance of making the playoffs, with a most-likely matchup against the Astros in the wild-card round. (The M’s, meanwhile, get a 93.8% chance of the No. 2 seed in the AL, mainly because they get three games against the Rockies – who can’t match the White Sox’s record for losses – in Seattle to start the week.)
AL Central standingsTigers (85-71)Guardians (84-72)Tigers Guardians tiebreaker
The Guardians hold a 6-4 lead in the head-to-head season series over the Tigers entering these three games, meaning one win would give the Guardians the tiebreaker against the Tigers. There is no Game 163 in MLB anymore.
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Tigers playoff scenarios vs GuardiansA three-game sweep by the Tigers of the Guardians from Tuesday-Thursday would clinch the Tigers’ first division title since 2014.The Tigers winning two of three games would give them a two-game lead over the Guardians with each team having three games left to play, so the Tigers’ magic number would be two. Cleveland would have the tiebreaker with a 7-6 head-to-head season series advantage.The Tigers losing two of three to the Guardians would create a tie in the division entering each team’s final series of the regular season. The Guardians would have the tiebreaker, so the Tigers would need the Guardians to lose a game to the Texas Rangers.A Guardians sweep of the Tigers would give Cleveland a two-game divisional lead with three games to play, plus the tiebreaker, putting Cleveland’s magic number at one (one Tigers loss or Cleveland win) to complete the AL Central comeback. This would put the Tigers’ playoff chances in peril. They currently own a one-game lead over the Houston Astros, which is the first team out of the AL playoffs entering the final week. The Tigers own the tiebreaker on Houston.Tigers magic number update
The Tigers magic number is six to clinch the AL Central (Tigers wins plus Guardians losses).
The Tigers magic number is FIVE to clinch a playoff spot in the wild-card round over the Astros, who are second in the AL West and trail the Seattle Mariners – the AL’s No. 2 seed, two games up on the Tigers – by three games.
Guardians magic number
The Guardians magic number (Tigers losses and Guardians wins) is seven.
How do you calculate a team’s magic number in baseball?
There are two different ways to determine a team’s magic number.
The first:Â 163 – (first-place team’s win total + second-place team’s loss total) = magic number.
The second:Â Games remaining + 1 – (losses by second-place team – losses by first-place team) = magic number.
Every win by the first-place brings the magic number down by one and every loss by the second-place team also brings the number down one.
MLB postseason schedule 2025
Here’s the schedule for the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs. All wild-card games are hosted by division winner or wild-card team with better record.
Tuesday, Sept. 30: Wild-card round Game 1s.Wednesday, Oct. 1: Wild-card round Game 2s.Thursday, Oct. 2: Wild-card round Game 3s (if necessary).Saturday, Oct. 4: ALDS and NLDS Game 1s.
Free Press sports writer Ryan Ford contributed to this report.
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