It’s do-or-die time for the New York Mets, who are tied for the final National League wild card spot with the Cincinnati Reds. New York has badly collapsed over the last few months, while Cincinnati has mounted a charge back into the picture. New York now needs to win games against the Chicago Cubs, who have already secured their spot in the playoffs. First pitch for Tuesday’s series opener at Wrigley Field is set for 7:40 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on TBS.

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Cubs vs. Mets odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Inside the Lines team model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

David Peterson (9-6, 3.98 ERA) gets the start for New York. Peterson’s fortunes have largely mirrored his team’s. He was good enough to be a first-time All-Star in the first half, but the left-hander has pitched to an unsightly 5.71 ERA since then. The Cubs counter with standout rookie Cade Horton (11-4, 2.66). The right-hander has dazzled for Chicago and is the favorite to win NL Rookie of the Year.

Both Peterson and Horton are set at over/under 4.5 strikeouts at FanDuel Sportsbook. Peterson’s Over is +110 and his Under -146. Horton’s Over is +132 and his Under is -174. The SportsLine Projection Model rates Peterson’s Over 4.5 stars out of 5, as it forecasts him to notch 5.3 punchouts.

Mets first baseman Pete Alonso is the +370 favorite to hit a home run at FanDuel. He’s followed by Francisco Lindor (+520), Juan Soto (+560), Brandon Nimmo (+600), Francisco Alvarez (+600) and Seiya Suzuki (+750).

Check out the model’s plays for Mets vs. Cubs on Tuesday. 

NEW YORK METS at CHICAGO CUBS | 9/23 | 7:40 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Cubs -110
Chicago wins in 53% of simulations, bringing value to these odds

Run line
Pick: Cubs +1.5 (-190)
Chicago covers in 69% of simulations, bringing value to these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7.5 (-105)
The Over hits in 64.7% of simulations

Projected score: Cubs 4.7, Mets 4.6