Locks

MLB (1 Unit) 2-Team Moneyline Parlay (+135; Odds via BetMGM)

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds (-150): 5:40 PM CT on SportsNet PT

Leave it to ol’ Tito Francona, the man is pushing the right buttons again and positioning his team for a playoff berth. That seemed nearly impossible not long ago, but the Reds dominating vulnerable teams lately while the Mets implode has Cincy in the wild card driver’s seat. So I don’t think they waste an opportunity here against the pitiful Pirates, not with Brady Singer on the mound who has been pitching extremely well for 2 months straight.

Pittsburgh has inevitable hitting regression coming for them after hanging 11 runs on Sunday, and their starter Johan Oviedo has had trouble with the Reds in the past. A home team in a must-win spot is not where I want to go laying the run line though, so I’ll look to combine the Reds moneyline with another team that looks like they’ll have an easy time tonight.

Colorado Rockies @ Seattle Mariners (-235): 8:40 PM CT on ROOT Sports NW

I don’t typically like backing teams at large prices when they get back from a road trip, which is the situation for Seattle. But they had a day off yesterday to reset after their sweep in Houston that give them control of the AL West, and I don’t think they look back. Plus, it’s the Rockies we’re talking about here, and it’s not like I’m laying the huge moneyline price or going with the run line, so this is much more of a prudent play.

Mariners starter Bryce Miller worries me a little bit since he’s always good for a couple of runs it seems, but as soon as this Rockies team steps foot outside of Coors they can’t hit anything, ranking dead last in every key offensive metric on the road. And the Seattle bats are the key to their takeover of the division, finally firing on all cylinders at the right time, and they should jump all over Rockies rookie McCade Brown tonight. I think the M’s are for real, and if they can’t beat one of the all-time bad teams during a pennant race, then I’ll take my loss and go home.

 

WNBA (0.75 Unit) Phoenix Mercury Team Total Under 76.5 (-120; Odds via Caesars): 6:30 PM CT on ESPN

Sometimes while you watch the Lynx pile up points and run teams out, it’s easy to forget just how good this defense is. Especially when they want to lock a team down, I’d argue that they’re the best defensive squad in the league despite finishing the season second in most metrics. They’ll be looking to shut Phoenix down tonight after the Mercury jumped out to a big first half lead on Sunday, and we should see more of the defensive effort that held Phoenix to a mere 22 points after halftime. Minnesota has been able to clamp down on the Mercury all season, only allowing 70.0 PPG in the 5 total meetings. This number is accounting for the potential of Phoenix when they’re at full strength, but the Lynx coming to play on the defensive end of the court will stifle the Mercury and keep them under this number.

Bonus Bet (0.25 Unit): Kayla McBride Over 14.5 Points (-110; Odds via DraftKings)

Give credit to the Mercury for not letting Napheesa Collier beat them in any of the meetings so far this year. But that just leaves McBride with less attention on her, and she has capitalized with 15.6 PPG against Phoenix this season. She’s also turned it up in the playoffs with three straight games over this prop total, and I think she has a chance to lead the Lynx in scoring tonight if all the focus is on containing Collier.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 21-14 (+4.91 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Extreme Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.