After a season spent jockeying back and forth, with the Astros leading by as many as seven games in early July, the Mariners have surged past their division rivals for the top spot in the AL West. Winning 14 of 15 games will change a team’s playoff outlook in a hurry, especially when that hot streak is punctuated by an intra-division sweep. After taking care of business during a three-game set in Houston, the Mariners have pulled three games ahead of the Astros with six games left to play. And, while the Astros are technically on the outside of the playoff picture looking in at the moment due to a tiebreaker with the Guardians, only a game separates those two teams from the Red Sox and Tigers as we enter a mad dash to the finish.
Assuming both of these teams (and the Yankees) make the playoffs and one of the Guardians, Red Sox, or Tigers misses out on October baseball, each squad’s tumultuous season thus far raises a crucial question. Regardless of which team wins their division, would you rather the Yankees face the Mariners or the Astros in a do-or-die postseason series? Let’s break down the case for each before reaching a verdict.
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The case for the Mariners
The Mariners have won exactly two playoff games since their ill-fated, 116-win 2001 season. Even if you reject the notion that perennial disappointment of this nature carries over across the years, positing that this squad’s success is entirely unconnected to what the likes of Franklin Gutierrez and Kyle Seager got up to before most of the current roster was old enough to drink, the fact of their playoff woes at a minimum means that they are dwarfed by the Astros in postseason experience. Their two superstar position players — Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez — went a combined 10-for-45 with one home run during their brief playoff run three years ago (a run that was ended, incidentally, by Houston).
Their pitching staff, while talented, is green. The nine pitchers who’ve started at least one game for the Mariners this season have combined for one playoff victory (courtesy of the group’s token veteran, Luis Castillo).
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For their part, the Astros are, of course, overflowing with battle-tested veterans. Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, and Yordan Alvarez each have ALCS MVP hardware to display (with Peña bagging a World Series MVP to boot). And their pitching staff features stalwart lefty Framber Valdez, who’s won seven playoff games all by himself. Closer Josh Hader and setup man Bryan Abreu have combined for 43.2 playoff innings.
Seattle closer Andrés Muñoz and setup man Matt Brash have tossed nine. Playoff experience doesn’t guarantee future success. But it can sure help quiet the noise in big moments.
The case for the Mariners as the preferable October draw is not all about the ghost of playoffs past. They’ve underperformed in several key areas, with talented young starters George Kirby and Bryce Miller performing well below league average. Eugenio Suárez has hit below the Mendoza line since joining Seattle at the deadline. How much trust do you want to place in the likes of Jorge Polanco and Dominic Canzone to come up big under baseball’s biggest lights? The Mariners, led by outstanding performances from Raleigh, Rodríguez, and ace Bryan Woo, are simply too top-heavy to sustain postseason success.
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The case for the Astros
There’s a reason the Mariners have pulled three games ahead of the Astros despite dealing with injuries that have prevented them from fielding the pitching rotation that was supposed to be their strength entering the year — they’re the better team. Sure, Hunter Brown has put up a dominant season, but so has Woo. Behind Woo, the Mariners can toss a combination of Castillo, Kirby, and Gilbert, all three elite talents. Behind Brown? Valdez, a model of consistency throughout his career, is 1-7 with a 6.71 ERA since the start of August, including a five-run drubbing at the hands of the Mariners his last time out.
The only other starters who’ve performed above league average with the Astros this year are Jason Alexander, a journeyman picked up off the Athletics’ scrap heap in May, and Brandon Walter, a 29-year-old who joined the Astros on a minor-league deal and has, similarly, overperformed. This is not the foundation of a legitimate playoff rotation.
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On the other side of the ball, the cracks are starting to show in the vaunted Astros dynasty. Altuve is still a solid hitter, but a far cry from the superstar he used to be. And, whether you put him at second or the outfield, his defense has been a major liability all year, limiting his value. The Christian Walker signing looks like yet another dud at first base for the Astros, as the 34-year-old has performed below replacement level on the year. And Alvarez, who’s still just 28 and should have many good years ahead of him, is on the shelf with a left ankle sprain and may not be available in the postseason.
The verdict
Many have gone broke betting against the Astros’ ability to reinvent themselves. But, with a rotation held together by duct tape and no guarantee that their superstar slugger will be healthy enough to perform, Houston is looking severely compromised. If they make the postseason — which is no guarantee — they shape up to be one of the weaker teams in the dance. Could the likes of Altuve and Valdez have some more postseason magic up their sleeves? Absolutely. But so too might the Mariners’ rotation, as talented as any in baseball. The moves they made at the deadline, adding Suárez and Josh Naylor to shore up their infield corners, signaled that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto was not treating this like any other season. Raleigh has in the past decried ownership’s lack of urgency to augment a talented but inconsistent roster. Now, the Mariners clearly have the pieces to go on a run. The path to a World Series title will always, by definition, go through elite teams, and it’s an troublesome mentality for any team to worry too much about who their opponents will be. Nonetheless, if the Yankees are seeking the weaker opponent, they should want to play the Astros 10 times out of 10, history be damned.