Here we go: Three teams playing for one postseason spot are within a game of each other entering the final week of the regular season, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in the mix.
The D-backs were nine games back from the third National League Wild Card spot at the trade deadline, and their resurrected playoff odds took a hit after losing their series opener against the Philadelphia Phillies on Friday.
After salvaging a series win over the Phillies, the D-backs made up ground, moving to one game behind the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds for the final Wild Card spot. Arizona would hold the tiebreaker over New York but not Cincinnati.
The matchups to end the season look as follows:
D-backs: vs. Dodgers, @ Padres
Reds: vs. Pirates, @ Brewers
Mets: @ Cubs, @ Marlins
The three teams in contention have experienced wildly different paths to this juncture.
The Mets signed Juan Soto and brought back Pete Alonso last offseason, entering 2025 with a gargantuan, league-leading payroll of $323 million. They started the year 45-24, as it seemed they were more likely to compete for the top seed than fall out of the playoffs. Since then, they are 35-52.
The D-backs were a preseason darling, pegged by national outlets to be among the top 3-6 teams in MLB this year. Injuries, pitching woes and poor defense led to a trade deadline sell-off at 51-58. They have responded with a 28-19 record to climb back in.
The Reds have basically been a .500 team all year, never flying higher than seven games over or falling further than four games under. They have lurked long enough to get hot at the right time.
These paths have converged into an unexpectedly fascinating final week of baseball for a National League that is otherwise settled, and the stakes are high. The third NL Wild Card team since the expansion of the playoffs made the World Series in 2022 and 2023 and the NLCS in 2024.
Diamondbacks’ guide to the final week of the 2025 regular season
Standings
Team
Record
Games back from final playoff spot
1. Chicago Cubs
88-68
+8.0
2. San Diego Padres
86-71
+5.5
3. Cincinnati Reds
80-76
—
New York Mets
80-76
—
Arizona Diamondbacks
79-77
1.0
San Francisco Giants
77-80
3.5
State of competition
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
Arizona has played Los Angeles tough all season with a 5-5 record. The D-backs are 22-20 against the Dodgers over the past three seasons, including the playoffs.
L.A.’s rotation this week, however, may be the toughest Arizona has faced all season.
The Dodgers will roll with Shohei Ohtani (3.29 ERA) in the opener, followed by two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (2.44) and All-Star Yoshinobu Yamamoto (2.58).
Arizona will need Brandon Pfaadt (5.02) to live up to his “Big Game Brandon” moniker coming off a near complete-game shutout, while Arizona’s top two starters presently, Ryne Nelson (3.34) and Zac Gallen (4.70), round out the rotation.
The Dodgers are closing in on the National League West crown with a magic number of three over the Padres. They are lined up to be the third NL division winner, which would set up a Wild Card Series with the sixth seed, which could be the D-backs.
Ohtani has four home runs and two doubles in his last six games, and he’s allowed one earned run over his last three starts (13.1 IP). He has made one start on the mound in his career against the D-backs, which came back in 2021.
On the other side, Corbin Carroll is batting .381 with seven RBIs over his last five games, while Ketel Marte is heating up with three multi-hit games in his last five.
Chase Field was lively this past weekend with three crowds that surpassed 35,000 fans against the Phillies. The Dodgers always draw a large audience. It is a midweek series, but can there be playoff-like turnout for a team on the cusp?
Reds vs. Pirates
The Reds are coming off a four-game mop of the Cubs, riding a five-game winning streak with nine total runs allowed.
The Pirates are 67-89 and in last place in the NL Central, but Cy Young favorite Paul Skenes (2.03) will pitch on Wednesday. He is lined up to face Reds ace Hunter Greene (2.74) in a marquee pitching matchup.
In the past month, the Pirates are third in MLB in team ERA at 3.31. Johan Oviedo (3.52) and Braxton Ashcraft (2.62) will start the opener and finale, respectively.
The offense in the same timeframe is a bottom-five scoring unit that will have to deal with a very good pitching staff in Cincinnati. The Reds did not give up more than four runs in any of their last six games. Starters Brady Singer (3.86) and Nick Lodolo (3.44) will bookend the series.
Pittsburgh winning the Skenes start and stealing another victory looks like the best outcome for the D-backs.
Mets vs. Cubs
In a battle of pretty cold clubs, the Mets enter the series having lost a series to the last-place Nationals to drop to 7-12 in September.
The Cubs followed a four-game winning streak with a dud of a series in Cincinnati, although it came directly after they clinched a playoff spot. The Cubs no longer have anything to play for other than holding off the Padres for the top Wild Card spot and home-field advantage when they face each other. San Diego is 2.5 games back and has the tiebreaker.
Scoring has been difficult with Kyle Tucker injured and the second-half decline of All-Star Pete Crow-Armstrong. The pitching has been quite good, especially in the past two weeks with a 3.05 ERA in 13 games.
From the D-backs’ perspective, the Cubs are rolling out an ideal starting rotation for this series against New York with Rookie of the Year candidate Cade Horton (2.66), All-Star Matthew Boyd (3.20) and Shota Imanaga (3.37) as their probables.
The Mets have David Peterson (3.98) set to start on Tuesday, followed by starters to-be-decided.
Playoff odds
The D-backs enter the final week of games with a 13.6% chance to make the playoffs via Baseball Reference projections and a 6.4% chance on FanGraphs.
The Mets have the edge with 51.5% on FanGraphs, but BR has the Reds leading at 48.3%, so this is considered anyone’s game at this point.
Clubhouse testimonials
Corbin Carroll: “ I feel like there was a series where I think our playoff chances went from point-something percent to 4% or something. It’s like, ‘Hey, there’s still life here.’ It’s still definitely an uphill battle. But I like this group and I feel like we’ve got what it takes if we were able to get in to do our thing.”
The D-backs’ playoff odds on FanGraphs were 0.8% on Sept. 9 after they dropped two games in a row in San Francisco.
They climbed to 7.7% after Arizona won five of its next six games, including three against the Giants to win the season series.
Eduardo Rodriguez: “I’ve been playing baseball enough to see this is not impossible to do. For example, when I was in Boston in 2021, we kind of did the same and we ended up in the postseason. We are on a good roll right now and winning every game that we can and doing the best we can do, so this is not impossible.”
He referred to the Red Sox having to clinch a postseason spot on the final day of the regular season, and after doing so, they stormed to the American League Championship Series.
Zac Gallen: “I don’t think we’re gonna go away until they tell us we’re out of it. Obviously we need a little bit of help, but the only thing we can control is how we play.”
Torey Lovullo: “We never stop believing in one another and never stopped staying connected. And I’ve always said it. When you’re connected, you’re capable of doing a lot of special things and you’re dangerous. We had every right to feel sorry for ourselves. … But that clubhouse did not allow that to happen, and they stayed together.
“I think that’s what’s fulfilling about the position we’re in right now. It wasn’t pretty for a long time here, whether it was injuries or style of play, but they continue to hustle, continue to believe and focus at the right times. That’s what’s gonna stand out to me about this year.”
Scoreboard watching schedule
Tuesday
Pirates-Reds — 3:40 p.m. MST
Mets-Cubs — 4:40 p.m. MST (TBS)
Dodgers-Diamondbacks — 6:40 p.m. MST
Wednesday
Pirates-Reds — 3:40 p.m. MST
Mets-Cubs — 5:05 p.m. MST (ESPN)
Dodgers-Diamondbacks — 6:40 p.m. MST
Thursday
Pirates-Reds — 9:40 a.m. MST (MLBN)
Dodgers-Diamondbacks — 12:40 p.m. MST (MLBN)
Mets-Cubs — 4:40 p.m. MST (MLBN)
Friday
Mets-Marlins — 4:10 p.m. MST
Reds-Brewers — 5:10 p.m. MST
Diamondbacks-Padres — 6:40 p.m. MST
Saturday
Mets-Marlins — 1:10 p.m. MST
Reds-Brewers — 4:15 p.m. MST (FOX)
Diamondbacks-Padres — 5:40 p.m. MST
Sunday
Mets-Marlins — 12:10 p.m. MST
Reds-Brewers — 12:10 p.m. MST
Diamondbacks-Padres — 12:10 p.m. MST
