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The Mets are currently tied for the final National League Wild Card spot, and the SportsLine model expects plenty of offense in their game today, making the Mets vs. Cubs Over 7.5 runs one of its MLB best bets at DraftKings. Mets vs. Cubs is set to begin at 7:40 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field. The Mets have gone Over this total in four of their last six games, with the Cubs also going Over in two of their last three contests. Claim the latest DraftKings promo code here, where new users get $200 in bonus bets and $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket:
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The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters the final weeks of the 2025 MLB regular season a profitable 34-28 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled making home run prop picks this season, returning more than 25 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Tuesday MLB best bets:
Mets vs. Cubs Over 7.5 total runs (-105)Brewers (-105) to defeat the PadresDiamondbacks (+133) to defeat the Dodgers
Combining the model’s three picks into a Tuesday MLB parlay at DraftKings would result in a payout of +788 (risk $100 to win $788). Bet it at DraftKings here:
Mets vs. Cubs Over 7.5 total runs (-105)
The Mets have backed themselves into a position where they are now playing for their postseason lives. Despite having a greater than 90% chance of making the playoffs at the start of September, the Mets have gone 7-12 this month and are tied with the Reds for the final Wild Card position, and the Reds hold the tiebreaker. The postseason essentially starts this week for the Mets, and their offense should come out focused. The Cubs are starting rookie pitcher Cade Horton, and the Mets scored three runs over four innings against Horton in his MLB debut in May in a 6-5 Mets win. New York is starting David Peterson, who hasn’t been the same pitcher in recent weeks as he was at the start of the season when making the All-Star Game. Peterson has a 10.90 ERA over his last four starts, and his over/under for total outs recorded is 15.5. The model projects the Over to hit in 64.7% of simulations for this 7:40 p.m. start.
Brewers (-105) to defeat the Padres
The Brewers (95-62) have clinched the National League Central, but with a 2.5-game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies (92-64), they are still playing for homefield advantage throughout the NL playoffs. The Brewers also have the best record in baseball, and a strong finish can secure that advantage throughout the entire postseason, which would enhance their World Series odds. The Padres have clinched the postseason, but they are 2.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West. The Padres are starting Randy Vasquez, who allowed four runs over 2 1/3 innings against the Mets on Thursday, and the model projects the MLB-leading Brewers to win in 54% of simulations for a 9:40 p.m. start.
Diamondbacks (+133) to defeat the Dodgers
Arizona is coming off back-to-back wins against the Phillies as the Diamondbacks get ready to take on another NL divisional leader on Tuesday. The Diamondbacks are 6-2 over their last eight games, despite only playing for pride at this point of the season. Arizona is starting Brandon Pfaadt, who allowed only one hit with one walk over nine innings in his last start, but with the game going into extra innings, Pfaadt wasn’t rewarded with the official one-hitter status. He has a 2.75 ERA over three September starts, and Arizona took two of three games against the Dodgers in late August when they last met. The model projects the Diamondbacks to win in 53% of simulations, delivering strong value as a plus-money bet on Tuesday.
Want more MLB picks for Tuesday, September 23?
You’ve seen the model’s Tuesday best bets. Now, get against the spread, total and money-line picks for every Tuesday MLB contest, along with college football odds and Week 4 NFL games, all from the model that’s simulated every game 10,000 times.
Also at SportsLine:
You can also see Tuesday MLB picks from SportsLine expert Bruce Marshall, who is 159-138-3 (+3539) over his last 300 MLB picks. Visit SportsLine to see his Tuesday MLB best bets.