Well, it’s been a season for Bryce Elder, once again. Spurned from beginning the season on the roster for another season, he was nonetheless recalled just a few games in, and spent most of the season in the rotation, albeit with a two-week stint in Triple-A for good measure. Of course, given the pestilence that befell pretty much every other starter in Atlanta, Elder has ended up with by far the most innings (149 1/3) and starts (27) on the club this season. On Wednesday afternoon, he’ll make his final 2025 encore — for whatever that’s worth.

Despite the durability, it’s been another trying season for Elder. He currently sits at 0.9 fWAR with a 126/112/98 line (ERA-/FIP-/xFIP-). His HR/FB has come down recently, but still sits at 15.6 percent — barely outside the top ten for the 151 starters with the most innings this season. Elder had a good run in May, but was mostly blasted before and after that until finally stabilizing a bit in August and September. His line from August-on is 96/83/91; it was 148/132/103 before then. Amazing what not getting absolutely wrecked by HR/FB can do for one’s fortunes, eh?

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Ten of Elder’s 27 starts have had an FIP-, but only one of those has come since August 1. Meanwhile, he’s had an FIP- below 80 in nine other start, with five of those coming in August or September. By xFIP-, it’s somewhat more stark: ten above 120, none in the final two months of the season, though just two have come in those two months. Basically, he’s been generically meh a lot lately, but hasn’t gotten killed by homers, which makes everyone happier.

All in all, Elder is what he is at this point — a very inconsistent slash volatile guy whose line averages out to theoretically be an average innings-eater, except when either HR/FB or his own lack of command leads to grapefruit balls getting smashed out of the park with problematic frequency. When that isn’t happening, he can shut down an offense handily, but it just happens too often, considering it’s not like he has good or even greater peripherals every start.

Elder has only faced the Nats once this season, back in May, where he had one of his rarer-ish good starts from early in the season: a 3/1 K/BB ratio and no homers allowed in six innings. Unfortunately, the bullpen and defense botched things late, and the Braves lost 5-4. For his career, Elder has unsurprisingly thrived against Washington, with five starts and a mid-3.00s FIP and xFIP, versus mid-4.00s marks for his career overall. That said, this is kind of a silly stat, since he lined up to face the Nats three different times in just nine total starts in 2022, but has faced them just twice since — once in 2023 (a bad outing) and the start this season.

Opposing Elder today will be Andrew Alvarez, a not-really-a-prospect 26-year-old who will be making his fifth career start. Alvarez’ first four starts have gone pretty well (67/85/101), and even those numbers are somewhat skewed by a clunker against the Cubs. His other three starts have been very effective, though his defense let him down in his most recent outing against the Mets, where he was saddled with six runs (four earned) while getting just ten outs, despite a 4/1 K/BB ratio and the lack of a longball allowed. As a soft-tossing lefty without much command to speak of, you can see why he wasn’t really considered a prospect, but Alvarez has a nasty slider that looks legitimately formidable based on his small sample of big league play so far.

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Game info

Time: Wednesday, September 23, 12:15 p.m. EDT

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta, GA

TV: FanDuel Sports Network South/Southeast, MLB Network (out-of-market only)

Streaming: MLB.TV

Radio: 680 AM/93.7 FM The Fan, La Mejor 1600/1460/1130 AM