Things might be moving in the right direction for the New York Mets. Badly needing a win after entering Tuesday’s action tied with the Cincinnati Reds for the final National League wild card spot, the Mets won a wild back-and-forth game with the Chicago Cubs while the Reds lost at home to the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates. Now one game ahead of Cincinnati and the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Mets need to beat the postseason-bound Cubs again. First pitch for Wednesday’s matchup is set for 8:05 p.m. ET, and the game will be shown nationally on ESPN.

If you’re looking to get into MLB betting and want the latest Cubs vs. Mets odds, projections and player props, be sure to check out the SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times.

Rookie Jonah Tong (2-2, 5.94 ERA) gets the ball for New York. It’s been something of a bumpy introduction to the big leagues for the electric right-hander, but his last start was a rousing success — five innings of one-run, eight-strikeout ball against the San Diego Padres. Chicago counters with Matthew Boyd (13-8, 3.20). The veteran lefty is having his best season yet, but has won just once in his last five outings.

Both Tong and Boyd are set at over/under 5.5 strikeouts at FanDuel Sportsbook. Tong’s Over is priced +112 and his Under is -148, while Boyd’s Over is +118 and his Under is -158. The model does not have a strong lean on either pitcher’s strikeout total, but it does rate Tong Over 1.5 earned runs allowed 5 stars out of 5, as it projects the rookie to give up 2.6 earned runs. 

Pete Alonso is the favorite to hit a home run on the FanDuel odds board at +370. He’s followed by Michael Busch (+460), Francisco Lindor (+480), Juan Soto (+500), Mark Vientos (+560), Pete Crow-Armstrong (+600), Seiya Suzuki (+600) and Ian Happ (+600).

Check out the model’s plays for Mets vs. Cubs on Wednesday. 

NEW YORK METS at CHICAGO CUBS | 9/24 | 8:05 p.m. ET

Money line
Pick: Cubs -125
Chicago wins in 61% of simulations

Run line
Pick: Cubs -1.5 (+180)
Chicago covers in 39% of simulations, bringing value to these odds

Over/Under
Pick: Over 7 (-120)
The Over hits in 71% of simulations

Projected score: Cubs 5.3, Mets 4.6