The Pittsburgh Pirates (69-89) meet the Cincinnati Reds (80-78) for the finale of their 3-game series Thursday. First pitch from Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati, Ohio, is set for 12:40 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Reds odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 6-6

The Pirates, who have been eliminated from playoff contention, have ripped off 4 straight wins, taking down the Cincinnati Reds 4-2 Tuesday and 4-3 Wednesday. They closed as a +114 underdog in Wednesday’s win as the total of 7 pushed. SP Paul Skenes went 6 IP with 0 ER (4 H, 0 BB, 7 K). Despite its recent win streak, Pittsburgh is just 3-5 in its last 8 games on the road.

The Reds, who were held scoreless in the first 7 innings of Wednesday’s battle, had SP Hunter Greene go 6 innings and allow 2 ER (5 H, 2 BB, 7 K). SP Nick Martinez gave up the game-winning double to 1B Spencer Horwitz in the 11th inning and took the loss. Coming into the series, Cincinnati had won 5 straight games, but with these 2 losses now sits 1 game behind the New York Mets and tied with the Arizona Diamondbacks for the final NL Wild Card.

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Pirates at Reds projected starters

RHP Braxton Ashcraft vs. LHP Nick Lodolo

Ashcraft (4-3, 2.62 ERA) makes his eighth start and 26th appearance. He has a 1.19 WHIP, 3.2 BB/9 and 9.1 K/9 through 65 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 4 IP, 3 ER, 6 H, 2 BB, 4K in 4-0 home defeat vs. the Chicago Cubs Sept. 15Last appearance: Hold, 3 IP, 0 ER, 0 H, 0 BB, 6 K in 2-0 win vs. the Athletics Saturday2025 road stats: 1-1, 2.23 ERA (32 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 0.87 WHIP, 7.8 K/9 in 3 starts and 8 relief appearancesCareer vs. Reds: 0-0, 2.70 ERA (3 1/3 IP, 1 ER), 1.20 WHIP, 13.5 K/9 in one start, a 2-1 home loss on Aug. 9

Lodolo (8-8, 3.44 ERA) makes his 28th start. He has a 1.08 WHIP, 1.7 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 through 149 1/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 2/3 IP, 4 ER, 9 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 7-4 home win vs. Cubs Friday2025 home stats: 3-2, 4.36 ERA (64 IP, 31 ER), 1.34 WHIP, 8.7 K/9 in 12 startsCareer vs. Pirates: 3-2, 3.72 ERA (29 IP, 12 ER), 1.00 WHIP, 13.7 K/9 in 5 startsPirates at Reds odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 5:26 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates +140 (bet $100 to win $140) | Reds -170 (bet $170 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates +1.5 (-160) | Reds -1.5 (+135)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Pirates at Reds picks and predictionsPrediction

Reds 4, Pirates 1

PASS.

While I like the Reds (-170) to come out on top and avoid the sweep, the odds to take them to win just aren’t enticing enough to consider.

BET REDS -1.5 (+135).

The Reds were 3-0 against the Pirates at home coming into the series and had won their last 6 straight games at home prior to facing Pittsburgh. They finally found rhythm Wednesday evening against a pitcher not named Skenes to round out the game, so with their backs against the wall, they should be able to produce Thursday.

On that note, despite their win streak, the Pirates are just 5-12 in their last 17 games. They have scored 2 or fewer in 9 of those games. Their offense should struggle against Lodolo. Expect a bounce-back game for Cincinnati and back REDS -1.5 (+135).

BET UNDER 8 (-105).

Both teams have drastic season-long Under trends along with strong starting options on the mound. The Pirates are 2-3-1 O/U in their last 6 games and 62-90-6 O/U on the year.

The Reds are 1-5-2 O/U in their last 8 and 58-90-9 O/U in 2025. Expect a low-scoring outing and take UNDER 8 (-105).

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