DETROIT — The Detroit Tigers lost again on Wednesday night, their eighth straight defeat and 11th in 12 games. Yet their playoff outlook remained largely unchanged.
That’s because the Houston Astros lost, too. The Astros have dropped five in a row and are just 29-39 since July 6, when they had the third-best record in baseball. (The Tigers had the best at that point.) Both clubs have tumbled since then.
Although Detroit’s chances of winning the Central Division have faded amid Cleveland’s surge, the Tigers still hold the sixth and final playoff seed. Their magic number to clinch a postseason berth — the combined number of Tigers wins and Houston losses — is down to three.
Their magic number to clinch a playoff spot — the combined number of Tigers wins and Houston losses — is just three.
Here are the playoff seeds after Wednesday’s games:
Toronto (90-68), EastSeattle (89-69), WestCleveland (86-72), CentralYankees (90-68), Wild Card 1Boston (87-71), WC 2Detroit (85-73), WC 3Houston (84-74)
Cleveland’s magic number to clinch the division — the combined number of Guardians wins and Tigers losses — is also three. That makes the No. 6 seed, and a rematch with Cleveland, the most likely outcome for Detroit.
That means the No. 6 spot — and a rematch with Cleveland — is an increasingly likely scenario for the Tigers.
According to PlayoffStatus.com, which gives the Tigers a roughly 80 percent chance of making the playoffs, here are the most probable matchups:
No. 6 Tigers at No. 3 Cleveland (59 percent)No. 6 Cleveland at No. 3 Tigers (8 percent)No. 5 Tigers at No. 4 Yankees (6 percent)No. 5 Tigers at No. 4 Toronto (3 percent)No. 6 Boston at No. 3 Tigers (1 percent)No. 6 Astros at No. 3 Tigers (1 percent)
While it’s mathematically possible for the Tigers to back into the postseason without another win, picking up a victory or two would provide insurance. If Detroit went 2-2 in its final four games, Houston would have to win out to pass them.
The Astros finish with one more game against the Athletics in Sacramento before heading to Anaheim for a season-ending set with the Angels. The Tigers, meanwhile, close with three in Boston.
The Red Sox, whose magic number is down to one, need just a win or an Astros loss to lock up a playoff spot. They still have an outside shot at home-field advantage in the Wild Card round, but more realistically will spend the weekend jockeying between the fifth and sixth seeds. That could leave them playing with less urgency than the Tigers, who will be fighting to extend their season.
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