Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images
The Padres are going to play postseason baseball. It’s looking more and more like one specific destination is set to be their fate for the Wild Card Series.
Playoff baseball is nearly here. Tuesday, September 30, marks Game 1 of the Wild Card Series across the league. It’s a best-of-three format, with all three games being played at the better seed’s home ballpark.
As the MLB playoff format goes, the top two division winners in each league get a bye through the Wild Card Series. The third division winner hosts the team that squeaked into the playoffs with the third Wild Card, or sixth seed spot. The other matchup is between the top Wild Card team (the No. 4 seed) and the second Wild Card squad (No. 5 seed). With two wins out of three against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Padres had clinched being no worse than the No. 5 seed. That means they will not have to face a division winner.
However, the Padres are currently looking up at the Chicago Cubs for the top Wild Card spot. With three games to play for San Diego and four for the Cubs, the Cubs sit up there with a 3.5-game cushion on the Friars. San Diego holds the tiebreaker over the Cubs. So they need to just finish on equal footing for the Wild Card Series to be switched to San Diego instead of Wrigley Field. However, given that the Padres now need to sweep the Diamondbacks and the Cubs need to lose all four of their remaining games, that seems highly unlikely.
Don’t forget about the NL West, either. The Padres also sit 2.5 games behind the Dodgers, with three games to play.
Given that the Dodgers own the tiebreaker over San Diego, the same situation applies to the Dodgers. The Padres must win out, and the Dodgers must lose out for San Diego to take the division.
Yes, it appears the Padres have a date with the Cubs at Wrigley Field. It seems somewhat fitting that these two teams met up in April for the Cubs’ home opener. Now, it appears they will square off in the Wild Card Series for a shot at advancing to the NLDS. Counting the 2020 COVID-shortened playoff format, the Padres have never lost a Wild Card Series. They defeated the Cardinals in 2020, the Mets in 2022, and Braves in 2024.
Note that the 2022 squad took care of the Mets while playing all three games in New York. It’s been done.
Indeed, the Cubs would likely be the odds-on favorite to win that series. After all, Chicago posted a 46-30 record at Wrigley Field this season. Meanwhile, the Padres went 38-43 on the road.
These two teams played six times already this year, splitting the six games at three wins apiece. Naturally, the teams won the series at their home ballpark.
The Padres will have their work cut out for them. The data is working against them, winning two out of three in Chicago. But as we know, anything can happen in October.
However far the Padres go this October, it looks like a series in Chicago at Wrigley Field is where the journey will begin.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.
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