The Baltimore Orioles (75-84) and New York Yankees (91-68) begin a 3-game series Friday. First pitch from Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, New York, is set for 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Orioles vs. Yankees odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Yankees lead 6-4

The Orioles took down the Tampa Bay Rays in thrilling fashion Thursday, earning a 6-5 win as a +102 home underdog with the Over (8.5) cashing. Baltimore sealed the series with a walk-off homer from LF Dylan Beavers, who crushed the first pitch of the ninth inning. DH Ryan Mountcastle and 1B Coby Mayo also went deep to fuel the victory.

The Yankees made it 5 straight wins Thursday, taking down the White Sox 5-3 as heavy -305 favorites, with the Under (8.5) cashing. New York was just 2-for-13 with runners in scoring position, but DH Giancarlo Stanton came through with the clutch swing—a bases-clearing 3-run double. SP Carlos Rodón (6 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 5 K, 1 HR) picked up his 18th victory, and the Yankees remain tied with the Blue Jays atop the AL East.

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Orioles at Yankees projected starters

LHP Trevor Rogers vs. RHP Will Warren

Rogers (9-2, 1.35 ERA) is making his 18th start. He has a 0.87 WHIP, 2.2 BB/9 and 8.4 K/9 through 106 2/3 innings.

Last start: Win, 6 IP, 0 ER, 1 H, 2 BB, 7 K in 4-2 home victory against Yankees Friday2025 road stats: 5-1, 1.66 ERA (59 2/3 IP, 11 ER), 1.01 WHIP, 8.3 K/9 in 10 startsCareer vs. Yankees: 1-0, 1.42 ERA (12 2/3 IP, 2 ER), 1.11 WHIP, 10.7 K/9 in 3 starts

Warren (8-8, 4.35 ERA) is making his 33rd start. He has a 1.37 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.4 K/9 through 157 1/3 innings.

Last start: Loss, 5 1/3 IP, 1 ER (3 R), 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K in 4-2 loss at the Orioles Friday2025 home stats: 6-4, 3.28 ERA (82 1/3 IP, 30 ER), 1.19 WHIP, 9.7 K/9 in 15 startsCareer vs. Orioles: 0-2, 4.20 ERA (15 IP, 7 ER), 1.47 WHIP, 9.0 K/9 in 3 startsOrioles at Yankees odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Thursday at 11:46 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Orioles +120 (bet $100 to win $120) | Yankees -145 (bet $145 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Orioles +1.5 (-185) | Yankees -1.5 (+150)Over/Under (O/U): 8.5 (O: -120 | U: +100)

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Orioles at Yankees picks and predictionsPrediction

Yankees 4, Orioles 2

PASS.

The Yankees (-145) have a lot on the line and need to keep winning, so I’ll take my wager to the run line with the improved odds.

BET YANKEES -1.5 (+150).

I’m laying Yankees −1.5 (+150) on Friday against the Orioles because the numbers, the form, and the stakes all point toward New York covering. The Yankees have won 8 of their last 9 games and 22 of their last 30, playing their best baseball of the year at the perfect time. They’ve already clinched a playoff spot, but still have a division title to play for. That urgency matters, and you can see it in how locked in their lineup has been.

Aaron Judge is scorching hot, blasting home runs 50 and 51 earlier this week, and the supporting cast around him has been producing consistently. At Yankee Stadium, this lineup is especially dangerous. The Yankees are 47-31 at home and have launched 132 homers in the Bronx — the second-most home runs at home in the league. That power advantage makes them a nightmare matchup for visiting pitchers.

On the mound, the Orioles have an edge with Rogers, who’s been terrific in his resurgence this year. The question is whether Baltimore’s bats can give him enough support. Warren doesn’t need to dominate — just keep the Orioles quiet and let New York’s offense and bullpen take care of the rest.

With their momentum, motivation, and power at home, the Yankees are built to cover the run line.

BET UNDER 8.5 (+100).

The Under feels like the right side here. It’s cashed in 9 of the last 10 meetings between these teams and has hit in 7 of Baltimore’s last 10 games. The Yankees have been trending the same way, staying Under in 5 of their last 6. With Rogers giving up just 6 earned runs across his last 7 starts, runs should be hard to come by.

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