The New York Mets (82-77) play the most important three games of their season as they head to Florida to face the Miami Marlins (77-82). By Monday morning, we will know whether the Mets are heading to Los Angeles or heading back to New York to clean up their belongings and begin the long, cold winter with a lot of questions to answer following a disappointing collapse. If there’s one piece of good news here, it’s that the Mets have never seen their season end to the Marlins on the last weekend of the year to cap off a collapse. Right? The Mets have split their 10 games with the Marlins this year, but haven’t played in loanDepot park since the second series of the season—they won two out of three games in that series.
The Mets are where they are right now after winning two of three games from the Cubs at Wrigley Field. The Mets scored arguably their best win of the season on Tuesday in a 9-7 victory to kick off the series with my favorite band, Green Day, throwing out the first pitch and my favorite comedian, John Mulaney, singing the seventh inning stretch. David Peterson could not escape the second, which forced the team to go deep into their bullpen to piece this one together, and the bullpen did its job. Meanwhile, the Mets trailed 6-1 but mounted a rally that ended when Brandon Nimmo hit a game-tying three-run home run off the other Rogers brother. The game was tied at seven when Francisco Alvarez had the biggest hit of his career to date, a two-run blast that put the Mets ahead for good. Edwin Díaz then turned in perhaps the best outing of his career as a Met, firing off two scoreless innings in which he struck out five.
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Wednesday’s game was a disaster as the Mets fell 10-3. Beyond an Alvarez two-run homer and a Juan Soto solo shot, really nothing went well for New York. Jonah Tong only lasted two-plus innings and allowed five earned runs, Sean Manaea allowed a two-run homer in relief, Mark Vientos’ defense cost the Mets, and Clay Holmes forgot to cover home on a wild pitch, allowing Pete Crow-Armstrong to score from second. At least it was only one game.
The week ended with a on Thursday night with an 8-5 victory to wrap up the series win. Francisco Lindor hit a solo homer to join the 30/30 club for the second time in three seasons. Brett Baty made a nice defensive play and, one inning later, hit a three-run homer to give the Mets some breathing room. Nolan McLean was once again terrific until he tired in the sixth, but he struck out 11 while allowing five runs. If nothing else, McLean proved to be the stopper and the most reliable starting pitcher on the roster right now, as he’s very likely lined up to pitch Game 1 of the Wild Card round should the Mets make it.
With the Reds dropping two out of three to the lowly Pirates, and the Diamondbacks falling in two of three games to the NL West-champion Dodgers, the Mets enter the final series of the year with destiny firmly in their own hands. If the club can sweep the Marlins, they will be heading to Dodger Stadium for a three-game series beginning on Tuesday. Anything less opens the door for the Reds and Diamondbacks to snag the postseason spot out from under New York. The Reds face the NL-best Brewers, while the Diamondbacks head to San Diego to face the Padres. The Brewers have nothing to play, which could give Mets fans some pause about the Reds’ chances in that series, while the Padres could still theoretically snag home field away from the Cubs in the Wild Card round.
The Marlins were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention on Thursday with their 1-0 loss to the Phillies, but they did well to make it to game 158 before getting eliminated after going 62-100 last year. The Marlins had won 11 of 12 before dropping their last two to Philadelphia, which put them in position to make an improbable run. The Marlins have also lined up their three best pitchers for their series, and I don’t need to remind anyone reading this post about the history of annoying Marlins teams disrupting the Mets’ postseason dreams late in the season.
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Miami enters play with a 96 wRC+, which ranks 11th among NL squads, and a .706 OPS, which ranks eighth. They’ve scored 699 runs this season, which ranks ninth in the NL. On the pitching side of things, their rotation sports a 4.89 ERA, which is 13th in the NL, while their bullpen’s 4.31 ERA ranks 11th in the NL.
Friday, September 26: Brandon Sproat vs. Sandy Alcántara, 7:10 PM EDT on SNY
Sproat (2025): 16.0 IP, 15 K, 6 BB, 0 HR, 3.94 ERA, 2.39 FIP, 96 ERA-
Sproat is coming off his roughest major league outing, as he lasted just four innings and allowed four earned runs on four hits, all in the third inning. After the bullpen and offense deprived him of wins in his first two starts, he was not able to go the five innings required to pick up his first major league win. Prior to that, he gave the Mets two straight quality outings. He’ll have one more shot to earn his first major league victory before the end of the regular season.
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Alcántara (2025): 167.2 IP, 139 K, 55 BB, 21 HR, 5.48 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 128 ERA-
Alcántara has put together a really disappointing season after returning from Tommy John Surgery, though he’s been better in the second half for what that’s worth. He finished the first half with a 7.22 ERA and a 4.65 FIP in 91 innings across his first 18 starts, but has pitched to a 3.40 ERA and a 3.79 FIP in 76 2/3 innings across his 12 starts post-break. Miami moved the right-hander back by a day to face the Mets in what could be his final start with the Marlins. Alcántara owns a 2.98 ERA in 17 career starts against the Mets.
Saturday, September 27: TBD vs. Eury Pérez, 4:10 PM EDT on SNY
TBD
The Mets have not revealed their plans for Saturday’s game, but it will likely be some sort of piggyback effort between Sean Manaea and Clay Holmes. The Mets have been more successful when they’ve started with Holmes and transitioned to Manaea, but we’ll see what Carlos Mendoza chooses to do. Both Holmes and Manaea pitched an inning out of the pen in Wednesday’s loss to the Cubs, being that it was their regular throw day. Neither one had a particularly great outing, but Manaea struggled again as he served up a two-run home run in his inning of work.
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Pérez (2025): 90.0 IP, 94 K, 29 BB, 11 HR, 4.20 ERA, 3.71 FIP, 98 ERA-
Pérez has had a solid season after missing all of 2024 with Tommy John Surgery. The right-hander, who finished seventh in NL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 before suffering his injury, has matched his 19 starts from 2023 and will surpass his 91 1/3 innings unless he has a catastrophic start—he only lasted 2/3 of an inning when he faced the Mets back on August 29 as he allowed five earned runs en route to New York scoring 19. The right-hander has not allowed a run in either of his last two starts and has only allowed three hits while striking out 15 and walking one over those nine innings.
Sunday, September 21: David Peterson vs. Edward Cabrera, 1:40 PM EDT on SNY
Peterson (2025): 168.2 IP, 150 K, 65 BB, 11 HR, 4.22 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 103 ERA-
The Mets have not announced a pitcher for Sunday’s game yet, but Peterson is lined up for this start. Given how he’s been pitching lately, the best-case scenario for New York is that this game carries no significance. Peterson has had a really, really bad second half, and it’s likely due to the fact that he’s surpassed his career high in innings by over 40. That fatigue is starting to catch up, which spells bad news if the team secures a playoff berth. Peterson had an All Star first half, but has really regressed as a result. The left-hander has a 6.34 ERA in 12 starts since the All-Star break. His last time out, he couldn’t escape the second as he was tagged for five earned runs in 1 1/3 innings against the Cubs.
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Cabrera (2025): 132.2 IP, 143 K, 43 BB, 17 HR, 3.66 ERA, 3.85 FIP, 86 ERA-
Cabrera is set to put the finishing touches on the best season of his major league career. The 27-year-old has already surpassed his career high in innings and set a new personal best in strikeouts. His ERA is the second-lowest of his career behind only his sophomore season in 2022, and his 2.4 bWAR is his best to date. He is coming off a couple of rough starts, including one to the Mets in which he allowed six runs (five earned) on eight hits over four-plus innings. His last time out, he went four innings and allowed three earned runs on five hits, with three strikeouts and one walk. The positive for Miami is that they’ve won each of his last three outings.