The Minnesota Twins have just three games left for the 2025 Major League Baseball regular season. Their playoff hopes went out to pasture months ago. On Thursday they bested the Texas Rangers to win just their first series during the month of September.
With 90 losses already on the ledger, there’s not much benefit for the Twins to stop tacking on now. In fact, it would be more beneficial if they got swept this weekend in Philadelphia. At least that would be the case from a draft lottery perspective.
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Draft lottery odds taking shape for MN Twins
Major League Baseball instituted the MLB Draft Lottery as part of the new CBA established in 2022. The first lottery took place in 2023. It was that lottery in which Minnesota jumped from the mid-teens all the way to fifth and selected Walker Jenkins.
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Currently they have the third-best odds to land the top overall pick, but they can increase their position by finishing with a worse record than the Pittsburgh Pirates.
Rank
Team
Record
Odds
1
Chicago White Sox
58-101
27.73%
2
Pittsburgh Pirates
69-90
22.27%
3
Minnesota Twins
69-90
16.81%
4
Athletics
75-84
9.24%
5
Atlanta Braves
75-84
6.55%
6
Baltimore Orioles
75-84
4.54%
The Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, and Los Angeles Angels are all ineligible for the top pick due to having previously picked in the top six during consecutive seasons. To avoid tanking, teams are not allowed to be awarded a the highest picks in three consecutive seasons.
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Minnesota has not received a top pick though, and is currently among the worst teams in baseball. Their 69-90 record is tied with the Pirates, but they could change that this weekend.
Philadelphia is 94-65, currently the second-best record in baseball. If they were to sweep the Twins, and Milwaukee lost their final three games, the Phillies would finish with the best regular season record.
Even if that doesn’t play out and the Phillies have less to play for, they have immensely more talent than Minnesota. The Twins will see familiar faces in the form of Jhoan Duran, Harrison Bader, and Max Kepler.
Pittsburgh is on the road against the Atlanta Braves, who may be motivated to improve their own MLB Draft Lottery position in comparison to the Athletics and Baltimore Orioles.
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Ultimately tanking for a better chance at the first pick can largely prove fruitless with the MLB Amateur Draft. There is often not a consensus top pick, and talent has different paths of development.
Last season the Twins picked 16th overall and went with college shortstop Marek Houston. He finished the season with High-A Cedar Rapids. The 2024 pick, at 21st overall, was Kaelen Culpepper. He was just named the Twins Minor League Hitter of the Year.
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