The Detroit Tigers (86-74) are no longer in charge of their fate in the American League Central, despite entering their final series of 2025 tied for the division lead; the Cleveland Guardians still own all of the cards to repeat as Central champs.

The magic number for the Guardians (86-74) to win the division is two after they lost to the Texas Rangers on Friday, Sept. 26, in Cleveland and the Tigers lost to the Red Sox, 4-3, in Boston. The Tigers and Guardians are tied atop the AL Central, but Cleveland has the tiebreaker after winning the season series, 8-5.

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That means the Tigers could be eliminated from AL Central contention as early as Saturday night, if they lose to Boston in a 4:10 p.m. start (FanDuel Sports Network) and the Guardians beat the Rangers in a 7:15 p.m. start (Fox).

But the Tigers could also clinch a playoff berth on Saturday, even if they lose. They enter Game 161 a game up on the Houston Astros (85-75) for the AL’s final wild-card spot (as do the Guardians). Thanks to the Astros’ 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Angels on Friday night, a win by the Tigers, or another loss to the Angels on Saturday night (9:38 p.m.) would give the Tigers a playoff spot, thanks to an edge in the season series.

The Tigers magic number to clinch a playoff spot is one over the Astros.

Six teams in each league make the playoffs.

Detroit Tigers designated hitter Jahmai Jones (18) reacts to hitting a two run RBI double against the Boston Red Sox during the fourth inning at Fenway Park in Boston on Friday, Sept. 26, 2025.

Detroit Tigers designated hitter Jahmai Jones (18) reacts to hitting a two run RBI double against the Boston Red Sox during the fourth inning at Fenway Park in Boston on Friday, Sept. 26, 2025.

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AL Central standings

Entering Saturday’s games:

Guardians (86-74)

Tigers (86-74)

AL playoff picture

The Seattle Mariners have clinched at least the No. 2 seed in the American League, and a first-round bye, thanks to their edge in the season series over the potential AL Central champion Guardians and Tigers. Both the New York Yankees and the Toronto Blue Jays have the tiebreaker edge on the M’s for the No. 1 seed (and homefield advantage in the ALCS), if needed. The Red Sox have clinched a wild-card spot, and can clinch the second wild-card spot (with a first-round matchup against the AL East runner-up) with another win over the Tigers.

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AL playoff standings (via USA TODAY Sports) entering Friday’s games:

1. Blue Jays: 92-68 (AL East)

2. Mariners: 91-69 (AL West)

3. Guardians: 86-74 (AL Central)

4. Yankees: 92-68

5. Red Sox: 88-72

6. Tigers: 86-74

The Astros are seventh at 85-75. They would lose the tiebreaker to either the Tigers, Guardians or Red Sox due to dropping the head-to-head season series against each team.

The No. 1 seed will face the winner of the 4/5 series in the best-of-five ALDS round, while the No. 2 seed will face the winner of the 3/6 series in the ALDS.

AL playoff contender schedules

The Tigers and the Red Sox are the only playoff contenders who face each other to finish the season. The rest of the slate:

The Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays in Toronto.

The Mariners host the Los Angeles Dodgers in Seattle.

The Yankees host the Baltimore Orioles in New York.

The Guardians host the Texas Rangers in Cleveland.

The Astros visit the Los Angeles Angels.

Tigers-Guardians tiebreaker

The Guardians hold a 8-5 lead in the head-to-head season series over the Tigers, sealing the tiebreaker advantage. There is no Game 163 in MLB any more.

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Opponents for Tigers and Guardians

The Tigers remain in Boston for the second game of a three-game series, with Game 2 on Saturday (4:10 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Detroit). The Tigers swept the Red Sox in a three-game series in Detroit in mid-May. If the Tigers don’t catch the Guardians in the Central, they could pass the Red Sox for the second wild-card spot (and a first-round series against the second-place team from the AL East) by winning their final two in Boston.

The Guardians remain at home, with the Texas Rangers, who are already eliminated from playoff contention, for Game 2 of a three-game series on Saturday (7:15 p.m.). The Guardians can clinch the AL Central with wins in their final two games against the Rangers; Cleveland was swept by Texas on the road in late August.

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Tigers playoff scenarios vs Red Sox

The Tigers can win the AL Central with wins in their final two games against the Boston Red Sox and one loss by the Cleveland Guardians against the Texas Rangers.

Or with one win in Boston and two losses by the Guardians.

The Tigers cannot win the AL Central if they are swept by the Red Sox.

The Tigers can clinch a playoff berth by winning one game, or one loss by the Astros.

Saturday, Sept. 27

Tigers at Boston Red Sox, 4:10 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports Network Detroit)

Sunday, Sept. 28

Tigers at Boston Red Sox, 3:10 p.m. ET (FanDuel Sports Network Detroit)

Detroit Tigers magic number update

Entering Saturday’s games:

The Tigers magic number is two to clinch the AL Central (Tigers wins plus Guardians losses).

The Tigers magic number is one to clinch a playoff spot in the wild-card round over the Astros, who locked into second in the AL West.

Cleveland Guardians magic number update

Entering Saturday’s games:

The Guardians magic number is two (Tigers losses and Guardians wins).

How do you calculate a team’s magic number in baseball?

There are two different ways to determine a team’s magic number.

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The first: 163 – (first-place team’s win total + second-place team’s loss total) = magic number.

The second: Games remaining + 1 – (losses by second-place team – losses by first-place team) = magic number.Every win by the first-place brings the magic number down by one and every loss by the second-place team also brings the number down one.

MLB postseason schedule 2025

Here’s the schedule for the start of the 2025 MLB playoffs. All wild-card games are hosted by division winner or wild-card team with better record.

Tuesday, Sept. 30: Wild-card round Game 1s.

Wednesday, Oct. 1: Wild-card round Game 2s.

Thursday, Oct. 2: Wild-card round Game 3s (if necessary).

Saturday, Oct. 4: ALDS and NLDS Game 1s.

Tigers playoff odds

The AL East is still up for grabs (but not for the Red Sox), the Mariners know they have a first-round bye and the Tigers and Guardians, if you believe the projections, are set up to face each other again in Cleveland in the best-of-three wild-card around.

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This section’s stats are through Friday’s games (as Friday’s late games give us just Fangraphs, giver of 0.2% playoff odds to the Tigers last summer, updating things by 4:30 a.m. Saturday):

FanGraphs: Dead heat in the AL Central? Dead heat – the FG algorithms have each team winning once in its final two games, with both finishing 87-75. Of course, a tie goes to the Guards, which is why they’re getting 69.3% odds of winning the Central, to the Tigers’ 30.7% (well up from 18.6% yesterday). Still, both the Tigers and the Guardians are getting better odds to make the playoffs – at 93.4% and 90.6%, respectively – than the poor Astros, who are down to 16%, with only the final wild-card berth to play for. Not everything’s bigger in Texas, we suppose.

Free Press sports writer Ryan Ford contributed to this report.

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This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Tigers magic number Saturday, MLB playoff odds, AL Central tiebreaker