Today I’m dropping what many of you have asked for – my Points league’s top 150 hitters for the rest of the season. Well, technically, you asked for my rankings, but this is close enough.
I’ll be the first to acknowledge, I’m not really a general “rankings guru” like many in the industry are…or attempt to be. I love data (you know this by now), and I do like to stratify players.
“Those sure sounds like rankings, TLB!”
Ok, you got me. I do like to rank players, but it tends to be individually rather than generating “top 100+” lists. See, when I “rank” players, it’s more frequently sorting against MLB averages or thresholds within a specific analytic. For example, players having MLB average barrel rate = 7.8% or a contact rate > 80% being considered elite. If you’ve followed me here, you’re familiar with this already. I use it all the time in these articles. So, this week will be a bit of an adventure for me since I usually tend to look for “other” ways to share my information.
For my rankings below, I’ve mixed up a proprietary blend of herbs and spices (hey, it works for the Colonel) to generate what I hope is a tasty dish. My main ingredients are the player statistics generated through the end of April and our very own Razzball projections. Both are available on the Razzball site at the hyperlinks provided. That’s as far as I go in sharing my recipe. After that, it’s proprietary!
Of course, you need to know the points distribution I’m using. Yes, it’s the NFBC RazzSlam scoring as depicted below. Of course, we’re only looking at the hitters this week so disregard the right side (until next week, perhaps).
Time for the big unveiling. The FIRST edition of The Lineup Builder’s Top 150 hitters for the rest of the season. So, without further adieu…
Rank
Name
Team
1
Aaron Judge
NYY
6.52
2
Shohei Ohtani
LAD
6.11
3
Fernando Tatis Jr.
SDP
5.74
4
Kyle Tucker
CHC
5.44
5
Elly De La Cruz
CIN
5.44
6
Bobby Witt Jr.
KCR
5.32
7
Corbin Carroll
ARI
5.32
8
Teoscar Hernandez
LAD
5.12
9
Jose Ramirez
CLE
4.76
10
Oneil Cruz
PIT
4.71
11
CJ Abrams
WSN
4.62
12
Jackson Chourio
MIL
4.54
13
Pete Crow-Armstrong
CHC
4.53
14
Freddie Freeman
LAD
4.5
15
Ronald Acuna Jr.
ATL
4.5
16
Jarren Duran
BOS
4.48
17
Wyatt Langford
TEX
4.48
18
Mookie Betts
LAD
4.37
19
Pete Alonso
NYM
4.34
20
Seiya Suzuki
CHC
4.31
21
Francisco Lindor
NYM
4.3
22
Cedric Mullins
BAL
4.27
23
Julio Rodriguez
SEA
4.24
24
Alex Bregman
BOS
4.23
25
Brice Turang
MIL
4.19
26
Bryce Harper
PHI
4.17
27
Steven Kwan
CLE
4.17
28
Byron Buxton
MIN
4.16
29
James Wood
WSN
4.09
30
Trea Turner
PHI
4.09
31
Luis Robert Jr.
CHW
4.09
32
Gunnar Henderson
BAL
4.05
33
Kyle Schwarber
PHI
4.03
34
Noelvi Marte
CIN
4.01
35
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
TOR
3.95
36
Josh Naylor
ARI
3.94
37
Mike Trout
LAA
3.91
38
Bryson Stott
PHI
3.9
39
Jose Altuve
HOU
3.9
40
Yordan Alvarez
HOU
3.9
41
Corey Seager
TEX
3.87
42
Ben Rice
NYY
3.86
43
Juan Soto
NYM
3.82
44
Manny Machado
SDP
3.81
45
Jeremy Pena
HOU
3.81
46
Austin Riley
ATL
3.8
47
Michael Harris II
ATL
3.79
48
Brenton Doyle
COL
3.78
49
Gleyber Torres
DET
3.74
50
Christian Yelich
MIL
3.72
51
Marcell Ozuna
ATL
3.7
52
Tommy Edman
LAD
3.69
53
Cal Raleigh
SEA
3.68
54
Rafael Devers
BOS
3.66
55
Jung Hoo Lee
SFG
3.66
56
Bo Bichette
TOR
3.63
57
Kerry Carpenter
DET
3.58
58
Wilyer Abreu
BOS
3.55
59
Lars Nootbaar
STL
3.54
60
Brent Rooker
ATH
3.54
61
Lawrence Butler
ATH
3.54
62
Paul Goldschmidt
NYY
3.52
63
Matt McLain
CIN
3.52
64
William Contreras
MIL
3.5
65
Ryan O’Hearn
BAL
3.5
66
Tyler Soderstrom
ATH
3.49
67
Luis Arraez
SDP
3.49
68
Brendan Donovan
STL
3.48
69
Austin Hays
CIN
3.48
70
Randy Arozarena
SEA
3.47
71
Dylan Moore
SEA
3.46
72
Jorge Polanco
SEA
3.46
73
Anthony Volpe
NYY
3.45
74
Geraldo Perdomo
ARI
3.42
75
Junior Caminero
TBR
3.42
76
Jazz Chisholm Jr.
NYY
3.41
77
Sean Murphy
ATL
3.41
78
Logan O’Hoppe
LAA
3.38
79
Andy Pages
LAD
3.38
80
TJ Friedl
CIN
3.36
81
Will Smith
LAD
3.35
82
Ketel Marte
ARI
3.35
83
Ozzie Albies
ATL
3.35
84
Cody Bellinger
NYY
3.33
85
George Springer
TOR
3.32
86
Nico Hoerner
CHC
3.32
87
Trevor Story
BOS
3.32
88
Riley Greene
DET
3.31
89
Trent Grisham
NYY
3.31
90
Jordan Beck
COL
3.3
91
Zach Neto
LAA
3.27
92
Matt Olson
ATL
3.25
93
Kyle Manzardo
CLE
3.22
94
Ian Happ
CHC
3.21
95
Luis Garcia
WSN
3.2
96
Yandy Diaz
TBR
3.2
97
Xavier Edwards
MIA
3.18
98
Kristian Campbell
BOS
3.17
99
Adolis Garcia
TEX
3.16
100
Hunter Goodman
COL
3.13
101
Spencer Torkelson
DET
3.12
102
Ceddanne Rafaela
BOS
3.11
103
Jackson Merrill
SDP
3.11
104
Eugenio Suarez
ARI
3.1
105
Maikel Garcia
KCR
3.09
106
Dylan Crews
WSN
3.07
107
Royce Lewis
#N/A
3.05
108
Michael Busch
CHC
3.04
109
Josh Jung
TEX
3.04
110
Giancarlo Stanton
#N/A
3.03
111
Andres Gimenez
TOR
3.03
112
Bryan Reynolds
PIT
3.01
113
Josh Lowe
#N/A
3
114
Brandon Lowe
TBR
3
115
Jacob Wilson
ATH
2.98
116
Isaac Paredes
HOU
2.98
117
Adley Rutschman
BAL
2.97
118
Nick Castellanos
PHI
2.97
119
Taylor Ward
LAA
2.92
120
Andrew Benintendi
CHW
2.91
121
Jorge Soler
LAA
2.9
122
Jordan Westburg
BAL
2.9
123
Shea Langeliers
ATH
2.9
124
Nathaniel Lowe
WSN
2.89
125
Jonathan Aranda
TBR
2.86
126
Mike Yastrzemski
SFG
2.85
127
Kyle Stowers
MIA
2.85
128
Xander Bogaerts
SDP
2.85
129
Brandon Nimmo
NYM
2.84
130
Trevor Larnach
MIN
2.84
131
Tyler Fitzgerald
SFG
2.84
132
Jasson Dominguez
NYY
2.83
133
Masyn Winn
STL
2.83
134
Nolan Arenado
STL
2.83
135
Johan Rojas
PHI
2.83
136
Sal Frelick
MIL
2.82
137
Mark Vientos
NYM
2.81
138
Carson Kelly
CHC
2.81
139
Heliot Ramos
SFG
2.8
140
Ezequiel Tovar
COL
2.79
141
Nolan Schanuel
LAA
2.78
142
Christopher Morel
TBR
2.76
143
Willson Contreras
STL
2.75
144
Victor Robles
SEA
2.74
145
Vinnie Pasquantino
KCR
2.73
146
Alek Thomas
ARI
2.71
147
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
ARI
2.71
148
Christian Walker
HOU
2.68
149
Tyler O’Neill
BAL
2.68
150
Leody Taveras
TEX
2.67
So, what do you think? I mean, any rest of season hitter rankings that don’t have Judge or Ohtani at the top are probably not worth your time in reading further. Will they both be there at the end? Maybe so, maybe not. BUT…on May 5, they need to head the list.
Now, what else do you notice? If it’s the fact that I’m giving you my estimated PPG (Points Per Game), then you are one astute reader. Yes, since we’re focusing on Points leagues, I think the best way to stratify the players is by providing the “RATE” of points we should expect. That’s my little twist on the rankings. These rankings are essentially driven by numbers (remember my proprietary blend?), and I didn’t really artificially tweak them to fit some crowdsourced model. Instead, I’ll let the numbers say their piece, and I’ll provide a critique, spending some time sharing who I think may be overvalued and those who may be undervalued.
How’d You Rank So High?
Here are some players I feel may not live up to these rankings much longer!
Pete Crow-Armstrong (Cubs) – PCA may have stars for parents, but he’s been making a name for himself on the North Side this season. He finished April with 6 HRs and a dozen SBs. He’s added 3 more long-balls after my April 30 stats cut off. He’s a great story, both for MLB and for fantasy, and I’m rooting for him to keep it going. That said, #13? That’s too rich for my blood. A look at the metrics sees him hitting too many fly balls (up 8 %), and his Chase% is also up. He’s getting by right now, but I see a regression coming.
Cedric Mullins (Orioles) – Mullins is another favorite of mine. Little-known-fact…I have his minor league bobblehead right here on my desk. So, it pains me to write this review. Unfortunately, it appears he peaked in 2021 with his 30/30 season. Now, we greedily take every HR and SB he offers, which looks like it’ll be in the 14-16 range for both. I fear he’s also peaked in these rankings at #22.
Bryson Stott (Phillies) – When you look at Stott’s early season stats, it makes you wonder how a player with only 2 HRs and 7 SBs can rank at #38. The answer is: 31 Hits at 4 points apiece. The projections feel he can keep up this rate. I see a career-high K% (21.1%) and career-low Contact% (76.3%), so I’m not as bullish here.
Austin Hays (Reds) – Hays put together a strong couple weeks in April, bookended by time away due to injuries, to land at #69. I’ve always like the talent here, and playing in the Queen City is a bonus, but I just don’t see this holding over the long term.
Jorge Polanco (Mariners) – The 31-year old is another good early season story for the M’s, coming in at #72. Here we have a player who’s averaged 15 HRs over the past 3 seasons but already has 9 in the books. The career .265 hitter sees himself at .395 after 24 games. Impressive, but this one screams “Sell High” to me.
Why You Ranked So Low?
Here are some players I feel may be movin’ on up!
Tyler Soderstron (A’s) – Tyler comes in at #65, which is admirable for a 3rd year player who’s finally getting an opportunity for regular playing time. He’s already matched his career-high in HRs (in about half the number of games) and what’s more impressive are the underlying metrics. Essentially all are positive: Average is up. Contract% is up. Barrel rate is up. Launch angle is up. Hard Hit % is up. BABIP is up. LD% is up. Chase rate is down. K% is down. Top 30 is not out of the question here.
Riley Greene, (Tigers) – Riley Greene coming in at #88 is just too low for me. Looking at his metrics, it appears his swing is just not there yet. GB% is up. LD% is down. FB% is down. K% and Contact% are about the same. If/when he puts it together, he’ll go on a tear. NOTE: I tried to pry Greene from Truss in the Perts league recently but he wasn’t having it. He’s also our editor so if that door wasn’t shut to me then, it certainly is now!
Josh Lowe (Rays) – We know the story here. If only Josh Lowe can stay healthy… Big “IF” there. But, if he does, I’m confident we’ll see him ascend from the #113 spot.
Isaac Paredes (Astros) – We’ve seen this all too often. A player coming to a team with the perfect swing to fit the home stadium. We saw a glimpse of it during a 3-game home stretch where he hit a HR in each game. In fact, all of his HRs (4) this season have come at home. Go Figure! Better days are coming here!
Christian Walker (Astros) – Here’s yet another example of a new player in a new environment. Walker has been, well we can say it, DREADFUL, and barely making the rankings at #148. I mean, 4 HRs and 9 RBIs through April? That’s dreadful. What happened to the 70+% Contract rate? The 15+% LD% and 44+% FB%? On the bright side, his Barrel% and EV are both in line with recent history. If Walker didn’t have the recent history on his side, he’d probably be down at Round Rock figuring things out. So now, he’ll have to do it in Houston. My money says he does.
I shared 5 players who I felt were too high and 5 who may be moving up. What do you think?
Where We’re Going
For the last couple weeks, I’ve shared a snippet of Rudy’s projection sheet that looks at the week ahead and provides relative Points league scoring for general CBS, ESPN, Fantrax, and Yahoo leagues. Have you taken advantage of that service yet? I’ll give you another peak at the week ahead but it’s about that time where the mother bird kicks the baby birds out of the nest. Just sayin!
There you have it, my first adventure into Points league rankings. We can debate where players rank all day, so let’s do it. Any names missing? I’m sure there are. We can chat about that too. Just let me know what you think in the comments below.
As always, you can find me on Twitter/X (@Derek_Favret) and on BlueSky (@dfavret.bsky.social).
Until next time, my friends!