Image courtesy of © Jerome Miron-Imagn Images
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Box Score
Starting Pitcher:Â Bailey Ober – 6 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 5 SO (78 pitches, 52 strikes)
Home Runs:Â Byron Buxton 2 (34)
Top 3 WPA: Ober (.387), Buxton (.182), Kody Funderburk (.106)
Win Probability Chart (per FanGraphs)
We always list the top three win probability players for Twins wins, but this is what you call a classic two-man win. Byron Buxton hit two long home runs, and we’re going to talk a lot about them. Bailey Ober worked six stellar innings to put a positive punctuation mark on a largely negative season. The bullpen did its job, too, but this win was all about two Twins veterans whose fortunes were among the biggest stories of the season, and who each did something remarkable as they close out the campaign.
Let’s start with the starter. Ober was great Thursday, teasing and frustrating the Rangers lineup (admittedly, a decimated one, at the end of a lost season and in a pitcher-friendly park) with a marvelous display of touch and feel. His fastball sat around 89, and dipped below 87 a time or two, but still, he was great.
Back on August 20, Ober’s velocity went over a cliff. It never came back. He’s been down a full mile-per-hour, relative to his previous level, for the last five weeks.
In that very game, though, Ober pitched 5 2/3 innings of three-hit, two-run ball against a tough Athletics lineup, striking out seven. After the game that night, two reporters asked Ober how concerned he was about the dip in his velocity, and he was clear: he wasn’t, at all. In fact, he emphasized repeatedly that he had feel for moving the ball in both directions and landing his secondary offerings where he wanted to, so in his own opinion, he had above-average stuff that day. It just didn’t come in the form of his best possible velocity.Â
That’s a legitimate stance. As much as the modern game has fallen in love with velocity, if a pitcher like Ober has the capacity to throw their fastball with good carry, one or more breaking balls, and a changeup with good depth, they don’t need to throw very hard to have success. The rub, of course, lies in the fact that it’s very hard to maintain the feel and the command to do all of that—a difficulty Ober ran into even during an improved stretch to finish his season.
On Thursday, though, he had the good stuff—not heat, but the rest of it. To visualize that, we can set his pitch movement plot from his previous start (a rough, six-run effort against Cleveland in which he couldn’t miss bats and had just one strikeout) side-by-side with the same chart for this one.
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He changed speeds on his slider throughout the game, manipulating it into what sometimes looked like a true slider and other times played more like a cutter. He also had great depth on his changeup. Despite topping out at 90.1 miles per hour, Ober had good stuff Thursday. In all, he had four starts like this one in his final seven for 2025. This is the roadmap for a successful 2026 for Ober, which the Twins need badly.
Meanwhile, Buxton gave him all the support he needed—and more. He didn’t just hit two home runs (one leading off the game and one with two men on in the top of the eighth, putting the contest on ice). He hit two carbon copies, of each other and of his homer the previous night. Three times in two days, he hit a ball 110 miles per hour—not 109, not 111—at a launch angle between 22 and 24 degrees, out of the spacious park in Arlington to something very like dead center field. It felt like watching a different sport, because in baseball, you hardly ever see a hitter do the same big thing so many times in such a short span. Even when a guy has a two-homer game, one will go to the opposite field, or he’ll hit one no-doubter and one wall-scraper. A three-single day will probably include one grounder and one line drive, rather than the same hit on a loop. Buxton got so locked in during this set that it felt akin to watching Steph Curry come up the floor and hit a logo three—and then another, and another, all within a few minutes of one another, all because he could feel that he was dialed in and the other team had no way to stop him.
Buxton now has 34 home runs this year, to go with his 24 stolen bases. Even as it takes its final, gasping breaths, his season gets more impressive. Only six players have hit more home runs in a season in a Twins uniform than Buxton has this year.
Those of you with a keen eye for a Twins history nugget know that Bob Allison and Josh Willingham each topped out at 35, exactly, so a homer this weekend would draw Buxton level with them. It’s a remarkable story, not only because it’s such a relief that he’s been able to stay on the field this year, but because he’s dominated so thoroughly during the time he’s had. Even in this relatively healthy season, he’s made two trips to the injured list and can only top out at 127 games played. Yet, he’s slugged a total of 62 extra-base hits. Watching him get hot one last time, as he occupies the leadoff spot on a daily basis and shows passion for the endeavor even with the team long eliminated, has been a delight.
Buxton is also up to 61 Barrels this season, according to Statcast. Those are batted balls that turn into extra-base hits more often than not, and very often, they’re homers. In the 11-season Statcast Era, only Nelson Cruz (who had 65 in 2019) has produced more of those high-quality batted balls than Buxton, who drew level with Josh Donaldson‘s 2021 with his two Barrels Thursday. Add in his early defensive heroics and his 24 steals without being caught, and it’s fair to say that Buxton is having one of the best seasons in Twins history. Where, exactly, he ranks is an argument for another day, but Thursday was a reminder of just how explosive he’s been.
What’s Next
Joe Ryan (13-9, 3.47 ERA) will try to arrest the tailspin his season has gone into since the trade deadline and reclaim the exciting tenor of his first half Friday night. He’ll toe the rubber for the Twins in Philadelphia, where they’ll take on the NL East champion Phillies and Aaron Nola (4-10, 6.46 ERA). First pitch is scheduled for 5:45 PM CT.
Postgame Interviews
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Rocco Baldelli – Postgame Conference 9/25/2025″>
Bullpen Usage Chart
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SUN
MON
TUE
WED
THU
TOT
Hatch
0
0
0
0
0
0
Adams
14
0
0
16
0
30
Sands
20
0
6
0
12
38
Funderburk
14
0
11
0
14
39
Laweryson
0
0
0
12
0
12
Cabrera
0
0
0
11
0
11
Ohl
9
0
0
0
20
29
Tonkin
0
0
0
0
0
0