The New York Mets (83-78) and Miami Marlins (78-83) finish their regular seasons Sunday. First pitch from Loan Deport Park in Miami is set for 3:10 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Mets vs. Marlins odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Tied 6-6

The Mets no longer control their own destiny, but they can secure a Wild Card spot with a win and a Cincinnati Reds loss Sunday. New York beat the Marlins 5-0 Saturday as a -145 favorite. The Under (7.5) cashed. 1B Pete Alonso led the way with 2 RBIs, and SP Clay Holmes went 6 scoreless innings to pick up the win. New York has alternated wins and losses over its last 6 games and is 3-4 over its last 7 contests.

The Marlins have hit a brick wall offensively, being shut out Saturday and scoring just 7 runs across their last 3 games. SP Eury Perez took the loss, allowing 3 earned runs in 5 1/3 innings. Miami had just 1 hit in the defeat. Despite going 1-3 in their last 4 games, the Marlins are 8-3 over their last 11.

Play our free daily Pick’em Challenge and win! Play now!

Mets at Marlins projected starters

LHP Sean Manaea vs. RHP Edward Cabrera

Manaea (2-4, 5.80 ERA) makes his 12th start and 15th appearance. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.0 K/9 through 59 innings.

Last start: Loss, 3 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 0 BB, 3 K in 3-2 home setback Sept. 21 vs. Washington Nationals2025 road stats: 0-3, 7.09 ERA (26 2/3 IP, 21 ER), 1.39 WHIP, 12.2 K/9 in 5 starts and 2 relief appearancesCareer vs. Marlins: 2-2, 5.33 ERA (27 IP, 16 ER), 1.26 WHIP, 7.7 K/9 in 5 starts

Cabrera (7-7, 3.66 ERA) makes his 26th start. He has a 1.22 WHIP, 2.9 BB/9 and 9.7 K/9 through 132 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 4 IP, 3 ER, 5 H, 1 BB, 3 K in 6-5 victory at Philadelphia Phillies Tuesday2025 home stats: 5-3, 2.91 ERA (74 1/3 IP, 24 ER), 1.08 WHIP, 9.6 K/9 in 13 startsCareer vs. Mets: 1-2, 5.80 ERA (35 2/3 IP, 23 ER), 1.74 WHIP, 7.1 K/9 in 9 startsMets at Marlins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 9:25 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Mets -125 (bet $125 to win $100) | Marlins +105 (bet $100 to win $105)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Mets -1.5 (+145) | Marlins +1.5 (-175)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -118 | U: -102)

Slide into: BaseballHQ.com for your fantasy baseball news. For decades, BHQ has been helping players just like you win! BHQ offers full-season subscriptions. Sign up today!

Mets at Marlins picks and predictionsPrediction

Marlins 4, Mets 3

BET MARLINS (+105).

The Marlins, a divisional rival of the Mets, have won 5 of their last 7 home games. They have been the more consistent side, winning 12 of their last 16 contests and coming out on top in Cabrera’s last 3 starts.

The last 3 times the Mets scored 5 or more runs in a game, they followed with a performance in which they scored 3 or fewer. They are just 23-23 as away favorites this season and 34-46 on the road overall.

Considering those trends, take MARLINS (+105).

PASS.

There’s no great run-line option. The Mets -1.5 (+145) are too risky as favorites, while the Marlins +1.5 (-175) are too expensive as underdogs. Avoid these wagers.

BET UNDER 8 (-102).

The Mets and Marlins have gone Under in their last 3 meetings.

The Marlins are just 2-5 O/U in their last 7 games, allowing 3 or fewer runs 4 times in that span. They have scored 1 run or fewer in 3 of their last 4 games.

The Mets are 3-4 O/U in their last 7 games, and as noted above, they haven’t been consistent offensively, which could hurt against a pitcher like Cabrera. Take UNDER 8 (-102).

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter/X and like us on Facebook.