I hope you’ll forgive me for being somewhat brief with this one. Through 161 games, I’ve done my best to be a steady hand. My stated goal here is to try not to ever get too high or too low. That’s always where I’ve come from and as I more and more see social media and the rampant negativity, I’ve tried to be a constant reminder to stop and enjoy the ride. Even when the Cubs win 70 rather than losing 70, baseball is meant as a type of escapism.
I’m sure some of you out there live full and happy lives. I’m pretty close to that myself. Even so, baseball is a place I go to not think about politics or religion or work or anything else. It’s downtime. Two and a half hours following a baseball game is better than a wide range of other options for our time. If you’re like me, it’s not an expensive habit. I made it to just one game here at Steinbrenner Field in Tampa. I get MLB.com via my cellphone package. I can watch or listen to basically every game, life permitting.
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This game is fun, even when the Cubs are bad. I’ve been with so many of you for so long. I didn’t start until 2017, so I missed the championship and haven’t had the pleasure of calling very many Cub wins. Back at the beginning, it felt like there would be more championships and certainly many more postseason wins. But that isn’t ultimately how it worked. Is a new window opening now? It’s not guaranteed. This team is going to have to have another good offseason to push open a championship contention window.
While it is fun win or lose, winning is always better. Getting invited to the playoffs is great. Hosting playoff games, winning series. These things make baseball better. If you get in, you have at least a puncher’s chance. We definitely want more than that from our teams. That shouldn’t stop us from enjoying the ride in-season. Off season? We should definitely constantly be pushing for improvement.
I tip my hat to this team and this organization. This was a lot of fun for me. I bought in real early on this team. I did predict them to win 91 games back in the writer’s roundtable (after they’d already started 0-2). This team has pretty certainly been one of the 10 best teams in baseball virtually wire to wire. They probably peaked somewhere in the top 5. I know in at least a few of the .com sites they spent time at the top in power rankings. I’m not sure the team ever fully hit on all cylinders at once. I don’t think at any point they were probably the actual best team.
All of that said, the best team doesn’t always win. I think I believe this team is capable winning a series against any of the 12 teams that remain in contention for the 11 other postseason berths. I’m not sure they are capable of playing at their peak for three or four weeks to win a championship. But this was a successful season. It all started last offseason when the front office had a terrific offseason adding a ton of valuable pieces to a talented core.
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What excited and encouraged me about this team was its depth. The roster had the kind of depth to survive injuries. It’s hyperbole to say that every move the front office made last offseason was a hit. But as a whole, the offseason was a grand slam. They nailed it. They got so much value. If they are being realistic, they probably exceeded their own anticipated hit rates on the moves they make. I’m sure there isn’t one player who they grabbed who they thought was a bad fit. But it’s wild that so many of the pickups performed near the high end of any realistic expectation for their performance.
It was a magical season. On the heels of this win, they get the Wild Card round at Wrigley Field. The Padres are a very good team. But this is a winnable series. We’ve got some time to get there. Let’s run through the numbers.
Pitch Counts:
Cardinals: 155, 38 BF (8 IP)
Cardinals: 19.375 {PPI and 14 batters over the minimum. Cubs 15 PPI and 9 batters over the minimum. The Cubs had 10 hits and drew five walks. They did hit into a double play and were just 1-for-9 with RISP. They’ve been running hot, so no massive surprise that they backed off. They probably don’t get seven runs with that, but they hit four homers. The Cub numbers would be even more impressive but for Brad Keller’s adventures in the ninth. It took him 26 pitches to get three outs.
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I would expect the Cubs to follow Javier Assad with a lot of depth options. I can’t imagine any significant reliever pitching Sunday unless someone really needs to see live hitters. Like, for instance, Daniel Palencia.
Three Stars:
Michael Busch had a monster day. 2 homers, triple, double, intentional walk, four runs batted in.
Jameson Taillon threw six innings, allowing one run one three hits and two walks. He struck out eight.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Busch combined for six hits and six runs driven in. PCA homered for the second straight day.
Game 161, September 27: Cubs 7, Cardinals 3 (91-70)
Reminder: Heroes and Goats are determined by WPA scores and are in no way subjective.
THREE HEROES:
Superhero: Michael Busch (.493). 4-4, 2 HR, 3B, 2B, IBB, 4 RBI, 2 R; 6th best WPA game by a Cub player this season.
Hero: Jameson Taillon (.215). 6 IP, 22 BF, 3 H, 2 BB, ER, 8 K (W 11-7)
Sidekick: Seiya Suzuki (.086). 1-2, HR, 2 BB, RBI, 2 R
THREE GOATS:
Billy Goat: Caleb Thielbar (-.106). IP, 5 BF, 2 H, 2 ER, 2 K
Goat: Nico Hoerner (-.078). 0-5
Kid: Ian Happ (-.070). 1-4
WPA Play of the Game: Michael Busch’s two-run homer in the fifth inning with one out gave the Cubs a two run lead. (.237)
*Cardinals Play of the Game: Jordan Walker’s two-run homer in the seventh cut the Cub lead to one.
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Cubs Player of the Game:
Yesterday’s Winner: Colin Rea received 96 out of 146 votes.
Rizzo Award Standings: (Top 5/Bottom 5)
The award is named for Anthony Rizzo, who finished first in this category three of the first four years it was in existence and four times overall. He also recorded the highest season total ever at +65.5. The point scale is three points for a Superhero down to negative three points for a Billy Goat.
On the bottom side, last place is still up for grabs. Carson Kelly and Seiya Suzuki were both really productive hitters but will finish in the bottom two spots. On the top end, Kyle Tucker has won the Rizzo Award. Taillon won’t pitch again, Busch can only get to +23.17 and Tucker can only drop to -26. I’m not even sure Tucker will play, unless the Cubs decide he needs the live work.
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Scoreboard Watching: The Cubs have clinched a berth in the 2025 postseason and the top Wild Card spot. They will host the Padres beginning Tuesday. If you like to partake in out of town baseball, there are six meaningful games on the last day of the season, two division titles up for grabs and one wild card position. This season had a ton of drama all of the way to the very end. I can be a traditionalist and still recognize that this did manufacture a lot of tension and excitement.
Up Next: Javier Assad starts what could look a little like a spring game. I’d imagine all three of the Cub prospect hitters will get a start. I’d imaging an awful lot of B and C relievers will get some work in the game. No one get hurt, play a speedy game. See you Tuesday. I’ll have an even shorter recap of tomorrow’s game as we turn our attention to real postseason baseball.