It is said that you should never scout young players based on the minor league box score alone. Numbers on a page can only tell part of the story. Well, the Orioles had better hope that Vance Honeycutt ends up being the epitome of that case, because his 2025 stat line was absolutely brutal.
Honeycutt has always been viewed as a risky offensive prospect. He had a lot of swing-and-miss at the University of North Carolina (26.5% career strikeout rate in college), but also featured oodles of raw talent that was apparent when he would make contact. Add in supreme athleticism, Gold Glove-caliber defending in the outfield, and plus speed on the bases, you can see why the O’s may have felt he was worth being the 22nd overall pick in the 2024 draft despite some apparent flaws.
The 2024 season saw Honeycutt play in just 13 professional games, a minuscule sample size in which he hit .176/.250/.196 with four walks and 24 strikeouts. It was ugly, but hardly a cause for concern so soon after being drafted. Unfortunately, the 2025 season did not see Honeycutt improve much on the back of his baseball card.
Honeycutt spent all of the ‘25 season at High-A Aberdeen. An ankle injury mid-summer limited him slightly as he appeared in just 101 games. But no matter how you dice it up, his overall numbers were bad: .171/.284/.275, five home runs, 56 walks, 178 strikeouts (!!!), 32-for-39 on stolen base attempts. The walks and stolen bases are nice, but everything else is concerning.
Early on it seemed like Honeycutt may have actually made some impressive strides during the offseason. In April he hit .250/.386/.375 with two doubles, two triples, one home run, 15 walks, and 25 strikeouts over 21 games. Although the UNC product was still striking out at a decent clip and lacking a bit in the power department, he was also walking a ton and seemed aware of the strike zone.
But he was unable to sustain that level of performance.
Honeycutt’s OPS by month went from .761 in April to .567 in May, .382 in June, .508 in July, .491 in August, and then finally an uptick to .758 in September. In early June he dealt with left hip flexor tightness. There was no IL stint then, but he did ride the bench for a bit and his abhorrent numbers in June indicate it may have been affecting him. In late July he would miss two weeks with the aforementioned ankle injury. September saw more power from Honeycutt (.478 slugging), but also included two strikeouts per game.
Strikeouts are a big problem for Honeycutt. He struck out 40.8% of the time in 2025, which was actually a slight decline from the 42.9% rate he saw in limited time in 2024. Both numbers are horrific. That 40.8% rate this year was the fifth-highest among all of minor league hitters. All four hitters worse than Honeycutt spent 2025 way down in either the Dominican Summer League or the Florida Complex League, and none of them had more than 186 plate appearances. Honeycutt was given 436 plate appearances at High-A.
The variable in all of this is what the Orioles development staff is/was tweaking behind the scenes. It was expected that Honeycutt would have his struggles in the pro ranks. He wasn’t a certain first-round pick in ’24, but the Orioles really liked the physical tools and felt they could work with him. That work is ongoing, and it’s tough to nail down all of the changes that have been made. He would not be the first player to have extended struggles while overhauling his swing, approach, or anything else, and then emerge as a better player on the other side.
FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen reported that the Orioles have “already changed the way [Honeycutt’s] hands set up, both in their placement and the angle of his bat.” As we saw in his numbers throughout the season, it doesn’t seem like it really improved any outcomes.
In that same report, Longenhagen reminds us that Honeycutt’s “floor is still pretty high because of what he can do on defense. Honeycutt comfortably has the speed for center, and looked more comfortable going into the gaps and at the catch point.” But be aware that having a high floor simply refers to his chances of being a contributor at the big league level, not a star or even an everyday player.
There is no doubt that his prospect status has taken a hit as a result of his 2025 struggles. MLB Pipeline has dropped him from the fifth-ranked prospect in the Orioles system prior to the season down to 18th now, behind all of the 2025 draft headlines and trade additions. They also dipped his overall rating on the 20-80 scale down to 40. Other outlets have similarly downgraded him.
The Orioles probably aren’t going to kick Honeycutt out the door this winter. They gave him a $4 million signing bonus last summer, and he still has plenty of skills to become a viable major leaguer at some point, at least as a runner and defender. If he can develop the ability to at least be a platoon option at the plate, that feels like a win at this point.
Honeycutt should have been on track for bump up to Double-A Chesapeake heading into 2026, but that doesn’t seem like a guarantee at this point given his performance. Right now, he seems destined for a return to High-A, which will be in Frederick next season. If he can excel for a month or so, then a promotion should follow.