Cooper Albers takes you through his preview, prediction and pick for Game 1 of the Wild Card matchup between Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians.

Who could have predicted this matchup a few months ago? In July, the Detroit Tigers held a staggering 14-game lead atop the American League Central, seemingly cruising toward the division title. But what followed was one of the most epic collapses in baseball history, all while the Cleveland Guardians steadily climbed the mountain, snatching the division crown on the last day of the regular season.

Now, the teams meet one last time in a best-of-three Wild Card series that will determine which team advances to face the No. 2 seeded Seattle Mariners in the ALDS — and which team starts packing for their winter vacation.

The Guardians took the season series, 8-5, and won five of their six matchups against Detroit in September.

First pitch in Cleveland is scheduled for 1:08 p.m. ET on Tuesday afternoon. Detroit enters as a -169 moneyline favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the total is set at six runs.

Tigers at Guardians, preview

Kickstarting the postseason action for Detroit is one of the best pitchers in the game, Tarik Skubal. The 28-year-old southpaw is in line to win the Cy Young Award for a second consecutive season — a feat that hasn’t been accomplished since Jacob deGrom did it in 2018 and 2019. In 195.1 innings across 31 starts this season, Skubal led the American League with a 2.21 ERA and 2.45 FIP, while pacing the MLB with a 0.89 WHIP and 6.6 fWAR. His 241 strikeouts ranked second in the sport behind Boston’s Garrett Crochet.

The lefty flamethrower owns one of the most satisfying Baseball Savant profiles in the game — all but three categories show deep red. His pitching run value (52) leads the league by 10 points, while his strikeout rate (32.2%), walk rate (4.4%), and hard-hit rate (33.0%) all rank in the 94th percentile of the league or higher.

Skubal faced Cleveland four times this season, including twice in the last two weeks — both of which resulted in losses that helped the Guardians overtake the division lead. Still, Skubal was dominant in each outing and allowed no more than one earned run in any appearance. Across 28 innings, Skubal allowed just three earned runs (0.96 ERA) with 40 strikeouts — headlined by a complete-game shutout on May 25.

The Guardians announced on Monday that Gavin Williams will take the hill in Game 1. The 26-year-old right-hander posted a 3.06 ERA with a 1.29 WHIP and 173 strikeouts across 31 starts in 167.2 innings of work. His ERA dropped to an incredible 2.18 over 12 starts after the All-Star break.

At 6-foot-6, Williams employs a seven-foot extension, making his 96.5 mph four-seamer look even faster to hitters. He also leans on a sharp curveball and nasty sweeper, two pitches that contribute to a breaking run value of 11, which ranks in the top 96th percentile of the league.

This season, Williams struggled to generate chases and allowed quite a bit of hard contact. Plus, his 11.8% walk rate ranks in the bottom 10th percentile of the league. These are concerning metrics for October, where one big swing can change everything — especially with runners on base.

Even so, Williams performed well against Detroit this season across three appearances — earning two wins down the stretch that helped Cleveland rise atop the AL Central. Over 16 innings, the right-hander allowed just two earned runs (1.13 ERA) with 29 strikeouts.

Tigers at Guardians pick, best bet

The Guardians will have to face one of the game’s best southpaws without a key right-handed bat in their lineup. David Fry is likely to miss the postseason after a Skubal four-seamer to the face last Tuesday.

Cleveland’s offense was already one of the weakest in the postseason picture. The Guardians posted the fourth-worst team OPS (.683) in the majors since the All-Star break, though that number improved during their meteoric September surge.

Still, the lineup is headlined by the most underrated player in baseball: Jose Ramirez — a switch-hitter who hit 30 home runs and carried an .891 OPS against southpaws this season. The lineup also comprises professional hitter Steven Kwan and power-threat Jhonkensy Noel. The latter — nicknamed “Big Christmas” — had a disappointing regular season campaign, but is just a year removed from hitting a game-tying two-run homer in the ninth inning of Game 3 of the ALCS against the Yankees.

Despite sending a league-high six players to the All-Star Game, Detroit’s offense ranked in the bottom half of the league after the break with a measly .701 team OPS. Still, the Tigers feature legitimate power threats in Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, and Kerry Carpenter — who combined for an impressive 93 home runs in 2025.

Gleyber Torres, in his first season with Detroit, enters October riding the momentum of a magical postseason run with the Yankees last year, in which he knocked 14 hits in 14 games to help New York capture its first pennant in 15 years.

These might not be the scariest lineups in October, but both are capable of doing damage. This one may come down to Skubal vs. Williams — and who blinks first.

Best Bet: Detroit Tigers -1.5 Run Line (+118)