Mandatory Credit: Denis Poroy-Imagn Images
The Padres are headed to the playoffs. Can they make a deep run? Why or why not?
Check the first box- the Padres have clinched a spot in the postseason picture. Gone are the days when that is good enough for Padres fans, as it should be. It seemed like the 2024 squad was destined for a World Series before the offense all of a sudden went colder than the Ice Age in the final two games of the NLDS against the Dodgers.
Now, they get another crack at it. The saying goes, ‘Anything can happen in October.’ Technically, that is true. But some things are more likely than others. There are trends and historical data that tell us which teams are best equipped to make a run to a World Series title.
Where do the Padres stack up? Which trends do the Padres have that suggest they are poised for a deep run? And are there a few aspects that indicate it could be a quick exit? Let’s explore.
Let’s start with the negative, so we finish with the positive.
Case Against a Deep October Run
The most obvious point working against the Padres is their lack of success against teams above .500. They have the worst record among teams occupying playoff spots currently against teams above .500. Not only that, but they particularly struggle on the road against winning teams. With the regular season road trips completed for the year, they finished with a series record of 2-11 against winning teams on the road, with two of those series losses resulting in sweeps. Quite simply, they have struggled mightily against the upper-level teams in MLB. Their reward for making the playoffs? Very likely, a road trip to Wrigley Field to face a Cubs team and crowd frothing at the mouth after not having a playoff series at Wrigley with fans in the stands since 2018. Basically, the exact scenario with which San Diego struggled all season. It could be a quick exit in the Wild Card Series if that trend continues.
The other main demerit against the Padres this season has been their lack of slug. That being said, their ability to get extra-base hits, hit homers, and drive in multiple runs with one swing. The Padres have been more of a dink-and-dunk offense, trying to string hits together. They currently rank 23rd in slugging and 29th in home runs. Since September 1, they have ranked 18th and 12th, respectively, in those categories. While they are hitting for power better than earlier in the year, it has not been their strength. Historically, teams need to hit for power and slug to win championships. The last time a team slugged this poorly as a team and won the World Series was the 2015 Royals.
One of the players who did provide some instant slug upon his arrival post-trade deadline is Ramon Laureano. He provided an .812 OPS and 121 OPS+ with nine homers in 50 games for San Diego after the trade. Unfortunately, he fractured his finger during an at-bat against the Brewers on Wednesday. He will miss at least the Wild Card Series, likely more. It’s a huge blow to the Padres’ offensive depth.
Mandatory Credit: Stephen Brashear-Imagn Images
Lastly, there are serious question marks surrounding the starting pitching. Neither of Yu Darvish or Michael King have been healthy or particularly good when healthy this season. Outside of Nick Pivetta, it has been massive chaos in the starting rotation. After Pivetta goes in Game 1 of a postseason series, what then? King would be the assumed next starter. However, he has pitched just 15 innings since May to the tune of a 7.20 ERA. Clearly, he is still trying to get right after missing a huge chunk of the season with various ailments. There is no guarantee he will be back in form for a playoff start.
For a possible Game 3, it’s likely Darvish. He didn’t make his 2025 debut until July 7. In those 14 starts, he has allowed three or more runs in nine of those outings with a 5.51 ERA on the season. It’s difficult to expect him to be vintage Darvish for a monumental start in October, especially on the road.
Even if the Padres get past the Cubs in the Wild Card round, they likely face the Brewers in the NLDS. Those weaknesses only become more strained against a solid Milwaukee club that has really good pitchers up and down the roster. Then they would likely face the Phillies or Dodgers in the NLCS if they somehow got past the Brewers. It’s going to be an absolute gauntlet.
Case For a Deep October Run
The Padres have the star power at the top of their roster that stacks up with any team in the playoffs. It’s hard to find a more talented duo of hitters on one team better than Fernando Tatis Jr. and Manny Machado. Players of that ilk can simply take over a game when they are hot. Not every team has guys like that. Throw in Jackson Merrill, Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez, Jake Cronenworth, and Ryan O’Hearn, and this is a deep lineup. When this lineup doesn’t have any of their key cogs in major slumps, it’s relentless. At any moment, this lineup could explode given their talent and experience. In a playoff series, especially a best-of-three situation like the Wild Card, all it takes is a few big swings going your way. The Padres have more than one guy who can do that.
Speaking of experience, the Padres now have it in spades. Many key players were there for their run last season and remember the sting of how it ended. That should fuel some intense motivation. They have several players who performed well just last year in San Diego’s postseason run, where they lost in Game 5 of the NLDS. Fernando Tatis Jr. posted an astronomical 1.500 OPS in seven postseason games last year, taking over games and displaying his explosive power.
Mason Miller, K’ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/l0UnG68SPd
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 28, 2025
Jackson Merrill, despite being a rookie, also showed out last postseason, with three extra-base hits and an .833 OPS. Then there’s Michael King, who had perhaps the greatest pitching performance in Padres playoff history. Against the Braves in the Wild Card round, he tossed seven innings of shutout ball with zero walks and 12 strikeouts. Perhaps these players can make a similar impact this time around.
The Padres are hard to strike out. In fact, they have the lowest strikeout rate among all National League teams and third overall in MLB. That becomes extra valuable in the postseason, where every at-bat is critical. The pressure is amped up tenfold. Baserunners are precious. Putting the ball in play puts the pressure on the defense to make plays.
That all becomes more difficult in the postseason, and the Padres pose a threat with how much they put the ball in play. Luis Arraez, of course, is the spearhead of that approach with an MLB-low 3.2% strikeout rate. If Arraez comes up in a big spot late where the opposition feels like they absolutely need a strikeout, that’s advantage-Padres.
The Padres’ biggest strength is their bullpen. It is a true weapon and luxury. Some playoff teams worry about over-exposing their bullpen and having it become a liability. Not San Diego. They have the No. 1-ranked bullpen by ERA and WAR. The Padres have five relievers who pitched in at least 60 games who also had an ERA under 3.50. That’s not counting upstart rookie David Morgan or fireballer Mason Miller, who was acquired with two months to go in the season.
Mason Miller has been as advertised, posting a 0.77 ERA since joining San Diego. Robert Suarez led the National League with 40 saves. Adrian Morejon was a revelation this season, with a 2.08 ERA in 75 games.
If the Padres take a lead after five innings, the odds are stacked against the opponent, given how well the Padres’ bullpen has pitched.
Given the depth of this lineup with how dominant the bullpen has been, the Padres have as good of a chance to win the World Series as anyone. But, in the cruelty of the postseason, it all could be over by Wednesday afternoon. Welcome to October baseball.
Native of Escondido, CA. Lived in San Diego area for 20 years. Padres fan since childhood (mid-90s). I have been writing since 2014. I currently live near Seattle, WA and am married to a Seattle sports girl. I wore #19 on my high school baseball team for Tony Gwynn. I am a stats and sports history nerd. I attended BYU on the Idaho campus. I also love Star Wars.
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