The Detroit Tigers and Cleveland Guardians clash in Game 1 of their AL Wild Card Series Tuesday afternoon. The first pitch from Progressive Field is slated for 1:08 p.m. ET (ESPN). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Tigers vs. Guardians odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Guardians won 8-5.

Detroit went 3-13 after Sept. 10, and that included going just 1-5 against Cleveland. Over that stretch the, Tigers — the No. 3 Wild Card in the AL — were a minus 40 in run differential.

Cleveland was back in the pack in midsummer, but the Guardians made up 15 1/2 games from July 8 and eventually overtook Detroit for the AL Central lead — and won the Central flag — with an 88-74 mark. For the season, Cleveland was a minus 6 in run differential, but in September, the club posted a solid plus 49.

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Tigers at Guardians projected starters

LHP Tarik Skubal vs. RHP Gavin Williams

Skubal (regular season: 13-6, 2.21 ERA) made 31 starts in the regular season. He notched a 0.89 WHIP, 1.5 BB/9 and 11.1 K/9 in 195 1/3 IP.

Last outing: Loss, 6 IP, 1 ER, 4 H, 3 BB, 8 K in 5-2 loss at Cleveland TuesdayCareer vs. Guardians: 3-3, 2.33 ERA (69 2/3 IP, 18 ER), 56 H, 15 BB, 84 K in 12 startsStarted 4 regular-season games against Cleveland in 2025 and held the Guardians to a .461 OPSOwns a 2.37 ERA across 3 career postseason starts

Williams (regular season: 12-5, 3.06 ERA) also made 31 regular-season starts, posting a 1.27 WHIP, 4.5 BB/9 and 9.3 K/9 across 167 2/3 IP.

Last outing: Win, 6 IP, 2 ER, 4 H, 2 BB, 12 K in 5-2 win vs. Detroit TuesdayCareer vs. Tigers: 3-2, 1.88 ERA (38 1/3 IP, 8 ER), 26 H, 13 BB, 55 K in 7 startsOwns a 1.74 ERA over his last 5 startsHas started 1 postseason game in his career (3 ER in 2 1/3 IP)Tigers at Guardians odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Monday at 10:56 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Tigers -165 (bet $165 to win $100) | Guardians +140 (bet $100 to win $140)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Tigers -1.5 (+118) | Guardians +1.5 (-140)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -115 | U: -105)

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Tigers at Guardians picks and predictionsPrediction

Tigers 3, Guardians 1

No interest; PASS.

During the regular season, the Guardians went 22-24 against lefty starters, and they were under-.500 (42-47) against clubs that played .500-or-better.

It may be a stretch to consider the Bengals such a club after the way they have faltered since late-summer. But Skubal, who owns a career 2.41 ERA at Progressive Field, is the equalizer. The powerfully built hurler makes the Tigers a worthy favorite, at least in this first game. And for as bad as Detroit has played, it gets a mental reset with this flat-footed start of the postseason.

Both Skubal and Williams are pitching on 6 days’ rest. In their careers, that type of long interval (6-plus days) has resulted in a 2.74 ERA for the Detroit southpaw and a 5.24 mark for the Cleveland righty. And Williams’ late-season surge does not stand up to scrutiny. Over his last 6 starts, he has benefited greatly from a .250 batting average on balls in play and a high strand rate, all while yielding a quality of contact not at all in line with a sub-3.00 ERA.

The bullpens tilt things back toward the Guardians, but Detroit’s woes in that department (4.58 ERA in September) are somewhat mitigated by the game being in Cleveland. The Tigers relievers have struggled more in their home yard.

Skubal is quite good in tamping down the running game, and that works against another Guardians’ advantage.

DETROIT -1.5 (+118) is the value play in Tuesday’s series opener.

The Under has gone 4-1 across the last 5 Detroit-Cleveland games.

Cleveland’s 3.97 runs per game in the regular season ranked 28th in MLB. And Detroit owns a whiff-heavy .608 OPS since Sept. 11.

Mix in the added pressure, rested back ends of bullpens, and an inward breeze in the Progressive Field forecast, and the UNDER 6 (-105) is a slight lean.

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