MLB’s 12 Playoff teams, ranked by their 2025 World Series chances

A dramatic final day of the 2025 Major League Baseball season is behind us, and the playoffs are here.

While 18 teams will be watching from home, 12 clubs still have a chance at baseball’s ultimate prize. Ahead of the opening slate of games, let’s dive into those 12 teams, ranking them by the likelihood they’ll be raising the Commissioner’s Trophy at the end of October.

12: Cincinnati Reds

The Cincinnati Reds capitalized on an epic collapse by the New York Mets to book the final spot in the postseason on Sunday. And while the Cleveland Guardians’ epic comeback to win the AL Central grabs the headlines, consider this: The Reds were a game under .500 back on September 16 after a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals, and at one point, they were six games back of the Mets in September.

But they are moving on.

What makes the Reds dangerous in October, besides momentum? Pitching. With Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott at the front of their rotation, Cincinnati has the arms to make the first two games of their upcoming three-game series with the Los Angeles Dodgers rather tough on the defending champs. But the Reds will need to get something more from an offense that was in the bottom third of runs scored, home runs, and slugging percentage since the All-Star break.

11: Detroit Tigers

As Detroit Tigers manager AJ Hinch pointed out on Saturday after the team booked a spot in the playoffs, everyone begins the postseason with a 0-0 record.

Which is a good thing for Detroit.

Back on July 8, the Tigers had a 14-game lead in the AL Central, one that slowly whittled away down the stretch. And as the playoffs begin, the Tigers start out having lost the division to the Cleveland Guardians, and have to play their AL Central rivals on the road to start their journey.

Still, with Tarik Skubal, Detroit has a clear ace to follow as the playoffs get underway. And if the Tigers’ offense can get back to the form that helped build that 14-game lead — they were sixth in slugging percentage as a team before the All-Star break — this team could be dangerous.

10: San Diego Padres

When Padres general manager A.J. Preller swung a Deadline Day move for relief pitcher Mason Miller — sending the organization’s best prospect to the Athletics in the move — it was for exactly this moment. While San Diego’s starting rotation has suffered from some inconsistency after Nick Pivetta, the Padres have arguably the best bullpen in baseball.

To wit, during the last week of the season, the Padres rolled out six different relief pitchers who hit 98 mph or more on the radar gun.

Beyond the starting pitching, the biggest question facing San Diego might be their lack of power, which could play a role in October. The Padres hit just 152 home runs this season, ranking 28th in the majors and last among all playoff teams.

9: Cleveland Guardians

The Cleveland Guardians are not supposed to be here. They were 15.5 games out of first in the AL Central in early July, traded one of their best arms in Shane Bieber at the deadline, and lost nine of ten games in August.

Yet here they are, in the dance as the AL Central champions.

Their story is one of a comeback for the ages, the biggest deficit overcome to win the division in MLB history. But if they are going to keep this momentum going, it will start with pitching and defense. The Guardians’ starting rotation, spearheaded by Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee, held opposing offenses in check during their historic comeback. Combine that with one of the best bullpens in the majors, and you have the pitching to win in October.

The fear is that their offense reverts to a pre-Autumn form. While the Guardians posted a team batting average of .242 and a team slugging percentage of .411 in September, those were wild improvements over their season marks of .226 and .373, respectively.

Both of those numbers ranked the Guardians 29th in the majors.

8: Boston Red Sox

After they traded Rafael Devers in June, few expected the Boston Red Sox to be here.

Yet here they are, ready to make life miserable for their bitter rivals as the playoffs begin.

Boston has both the starting pitching and the bullpen arms to pose a problem in October. Ace Garrett Crochet has posted an 18-5 record with an ERA of 2.59 and a WHIP of 1.03, numbers that typically earn you a Cy Young, at least when you aren’t putting those up against what Tarik Skubal has done. With Brayan Bello, Boston has another arm in the rotation that could stand out in a three-game set, but losing Lucas Giolito for the upcoming series with New York to an elbow issue could loom large.

At the back of their pitching staff, they have a one-two combination in Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman that puts games away once they are called on.

What could hold Boston back is a lack of one more impact bat in their lineup, making the injury to star rookie Roman Anthony all the more tough on the Red Sox. Boston was 44-27 when Anthony was in the lineup, and 45-46 when he was not. From July 1 through Sept. 2, the day Anthony suffered his oblique injury, the Red Sox ranked sixth in the majors in runs scored and eighth in wRC+.

Since he has yet to resume baseball activities, they’ll need to go deep into October to get him back.

7: Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are back in the playoffs, but the path to their first playoff win since 2017 got a little tougher with news that starting pitcher Cade Horton will be out for at least the Wild Card round with a rib fracture.

That puts extra pressure on their starting rotation, and lefties Matthew Boyd and Shota Imanaga, as the postseason begins.

Offensively, over the first half of the season, the Cubs were one of the most dangerous lineups in the game. They posted a slugging percentage of .446 (second only to the Yankees) and an OPS of .771 (fourth in the majors) ahead of the All-Star break. Those numbers dipped over the second half of the season, but if the bats come alive, the Cubs can make some noise.

Having one of the best defenses in the game might also help.

6: Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays enter the playoffs as the top seed in the American League and winners of the AL East, meaning the road to the World Series runs through the Rogers Centre in the AL.

Still, the Blue Jays have some questions to answer as the playoffs begin.

One is the offense without Bo Bichette, who suffered a knee sprain earlier this month and has not been cleared to return to running. With the Blue Jays having a bye, there is time to get him back, but the offense lacked some pop down the stretch without him in the lineup.

Then there is pitching. Toronto’s team ERA of 4.19 was in the bottom half of the league, and the worst of any playoff team.

If the offense can stabilize, and Kevin Gausman and trade-deadline addition Shane Bieber bring their A games, the Blue Jays will be a problem in the Divisional Series for their upcoming opponents. If not, however, it could be a cold winter in Toronto.

5: Los Angeles Dodgers

The defending World Series champions have a few things going for them as the playoffs begin. They are as healthy as they’ve been for the postseason in recent memory, they have a starting rotation that gives Dave Roberts plenty of options to begin games, and they have Shohei Ohtani, one of the best players in the majors.

But there are two big questions. First is the bullpen, which emerged as a big problem for this team down the stretch. The last time a Dodgers starting pitcher was credited with a loss came back on September 4, but Los Angeles went 14-7 over that stretch.

All seven losses were credited to either Tanner Scott or Blake Treinen out of the bullpen.

That group might look different in October. Clayton Kershaw volunteered for bullpen duty down the stretch, according to Robers, and likely moves to the bullpen along with Emmet Sheehan for the postseason. Still, bullpens matter a great deal in the playoffs, and that is a glaring question the Dodgers need to answer in the postseason.

4: New York Yankees

The New York Yankees can absolutely mash.

Yes, Aaron Judge’s 53 home runs lead the way, but even if you remove those, the Yankees belted 221 home runs, which would be good enough for seventh in the majors. When you can do that after removing an MVP candidate, you have a lineup that can win in October.

As a team, the Yankees led the majors in both slugging percentage and OPS. Their run differential of +164 was second only to the Milwaukee Brewers. Between Max Fried and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees have two premier starting pitchers to lead the rotation.

A potential Achilles’ heel could be their bullpen, but even that group looked solid down the stretch.

Put it all together, and you have a group that could bring that 28th title to New York.

3: Seattle Mariners

Speaking of MVP candidates …

The debate over Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge can wait for another day, but the Mariners catcher is one big part of a huge story in Seattle. Raleigh belted 60 home runs this season, a new mark for the position.

But Seattle’s lineup is more than Raleigh, as the Mariners can count on production from Julio Rodriguez, and Randy Arozarena, and Eugenio Suarez, and Josh Naylor, and Jorge Polanco, and Dom Canzone, and J.P. Crawford, and …

This is an offense that posted an OPS of .806 in September, best in the American League, so they’re entering the postseason red-hot.

As for pitching? The Mariners might have the best rotation in the playoffs, and when you factor in a bullpen featuring Matt Brash and Andres Munoz at the back end, this is a team that can win in October.

These are the reasons that FanGraphs lists the Mariners as the team with the best odds to win it all.

2: Philadelphia Phillies

While the Philadelphia Phillies came up one game short of the Milwaukee Brewers in the race for MLB’s best record, this group has a tremendous chance to bring home the franchise’s first title since Charlie Manuel’s bunch in 2008.

Led by Kyle Schwarber — more “force of nature” than hitter at this point in the season — the Philadelphia lineup can rake. And they’ve been scorching-hot over the second half, leading the majors with a team slugging percentage of .471 since the All-Star break. They’re also expecting Trea Turner back, the shortstop who put together perhaps his best season yet and sets the table for Schwarber, Bryce Harper, and company.

Factor in a rotation that is led by upstart Cristopher Sánchez (who went 13-5 this year with a WHIP of 1.06) and a bullpen with Jhoan Duran to close things out, and you have a true contender.

1: Milwaukee Brewers

The biggest strength the Milwaukee Brewers have entering the postseason?

It might just be the lack of a glaring weakness.

Milwaukee enters the playoffs with a 97-65 record, best in the majors. The road to the World Series runs through the Brewers, who pitch well, play defense even better, and stole a National League-best 164 bases this season.

If you want to push things a bit, perhaps the Brewers lack the power bats that often dominate October. Milwaukee finished the season with 166 home runs, ranking 22nd in the majors.

The last team that finished outside the top nine in home runs and reached the World Series? The Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023. The last team to finish outside the top nine in home runs and win the whole thing?

The 2019 Washington Nationals.

MLB’s 12 Playoff teams, ranked by their 2025 World Series chances

Tags: