Analyzing MLB Wild Card postseason matchups
Bob Nightengale breaks down each of the four Wild Card matchups to kick off the 2025 MLB postseason.
The Chicago Cubs and San Diego Padres begin the National League wild card series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday, Sept. 30, with both teams hoping to grab a crucial lead in the best-of-three set.
The Cubs (92-70) won the NL’s top wild card spot to earn home-field advantage against the Padres (90-72), who are making consecutive postseason appearances for just the second time in franchise history. The two teams haven’t met since April, splitting the six matchups early in the season.
“What’s really cool is through the ups and downs of the season, our belief has not wavered, our belief of where we stand in the overall calculus in this league and whatnot and who we are,” Cubs Game 1 starter Matthew Boyd told reporters.
Said Padres third baseman Manny Machado: “We’ll try to reach our goal, which is to bring the championship to the city of San Diego. We have a group of guys that can do it, and now we’ve just got to go out there and do it.”
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It has been a smokeshow from Palencia in his 1.2 innings of work. Despite facing the heart of the Padres’ lineup in the sixth, Palencia was able to set both Machado and Merrill down on strikes. Bogaerts gave a fastball a nice ride to deep center, but it was ultimately caught.
Cubs hold their 2-1 lead into the bottom of the sixth.
Well, that tie game didn’t last long. Right after Suzuki, Pivetta surrendered another home run to catcher Carson Kelly and suddenly the Cubs have turned this game on its ear.
The second homer also prompted Padres’ manager Mike Shildt to get the bullpen going. Pivetta remains on the mound, but a few more mistakes may force the team to bring in a reliever. It’s 2-1 Cubs.
After four strong innings from Nick Pivetta, the veteran finally showed some cracks when Seiya Suzuki took him deep to lead off the bottom of the fifth. Though Pivetta has only surrendered two baserunners, the game is tied at 1 apiece.
After Padres’ catcher Freddy Fermin singled with one out, bringing up the top of the Padres’ lineup, Cubs manager Craig Counsell had seen enough. Already, he is turning to his bullpen, specifically Danny Palencia, who will get the luxury of facing Fernando Tatis and Luis Arraez as he tries to hold this one-run deficit.
After surrendering a single to Nico Hoerner in the first inning, Pivetta has coasted since, setting down 11 straight Cubs to round out the fourth inning. Still, despite Pivetta’s excellence, the Padres have not given him much run support. Though they have threatened, the Friars have not been able to bring in runners from scoring position.
Into the fifth, it remains 1-0.
The middle of that Padres lineup gave Boyd trouble once again. After Manny Machado walked to lead off the inning, Bogaerts would move him to third just two batters later with a single to center field. There were runners on the corners with only one out for Ryan O’Hearn.
Back in the second inning, O’Hearn had already been robbed of a hit after shortstop Dansby Swanson made a diving stop to hold Bogaerts at third base. This time, O’Hearn lifted a lazy fly ball to shallow center field and Swanson raced back, making an excellent over-the-shoulder catch to hold Machado at third. Two at-bats, and twice O’Hearn has been robbed by Swanson.
Swanson’s great glove kept another run from scoring, keeping the game at just 1-0 heading into the bottom of the fourth.
After a rough second, Matthew Boyd bounced back to go three-up, three-down in the third, including striking out Luis Arraez, a very rare sight.
The Cubs return to the dugout still trailing by one.
The Cubs were looking to get a run of their own after the Padres kicked off the scoring in the top of the second. However, Nick Pivetta was dealing, striking out two Cubs in a perfect second. It remains 1-0 heading into the third.
After Bogaerts reached third with no outs, it looked like the Padres were set for a 2-0 lead. However, a great diving stop from Dansby Swanson held Bogaerts at third. That was followed up with a popout to third and a groundout to short.
Somehow, the Padres only managed one run in the inning. Still, they head into the bottom of the second up 1-0.
Merrill led off the top of the second inning with a bloop double down the right field line. And it didn’t take long for the Padres to bring him home. Xander Bogaerts followed Merrill up with a double of his own into the left center gap. The throw into second got away from the Cubs as well, allowing Bogaerts to reach third. There are no outs in the inning, the Padres have already scored, and Bogaerts is just 90 feet away from scoring.
Michael Busch gave a Pivetta fastball a ride out to deep center, but Jackson Merrill was able to catch the ball at the warning track. The Cubs then got the first baserunner of the game after Nico Hoerner smoked a ground ball through the 34 hole. However, that was as far as he’d get as both Ian Happ and Kyle Tucker would go down without much issue from Pivetta. It remains scoreless as we head to the second inning.
The Padres’ daunted top-three in Tatis, Arraez, and Machado went down quietly in the top of the first. Manny Machado had the best opportunity to reach base, ripping a line drive straight at Cubs third baseman Matt Shaw, who was able to pick it out of the air.
It’s tied at zero heading into the bottom of the first.
What time is Cubs vs Padres game?
First pitch is scheduled for 3:08 p.m. ET at Wrigley Field.
Cubs vs Padres TV channel, live stream
Tuesday’s game is airing on ABC and can be streamed with Fubo.
Watch Cubs vs. Padres in MLB playoffs
The Cubs and Padres went 3-3 against one another this year. The teams played only two series head-to-head this season, with the Cubs winning the first series 2-1 and the Padres winning the next series 2-1 just a week later.
Across those six games, both teams scored exactly 25 runs. This could be as evenly matched a playoff series as we’ll see all year.
Padres: Nick Pivetta (13-5, 2.87 ERA)
Pivetta’s postseason experience is limited to three games with the 2021 Red Sox, where he earned a solid 2.63 ERA.
Pivetta made two starts against the Cubs back in April, with one great start and another troubling start. In his first start which took place at Wrigley Field, Pivetta only lasted three innings, surrendering three earned runs on six hits. In his next start though, Pivetta played well in front of his home crowd, tossing six innings of one-run ball, only allowing four hits and a walk, while striking out six.
Cubs: Matthew Boyd (14-8, 3.21 ERA)
Boyd has struggled recently, posting an ERA over 5 over his last 11 starts. It was a far cry from the 2.20 ERA we saw from him in the first half of the season as Boyd earned his first All-Star bid.
That said, Boyd has a lot of factors going his way. Most notably, he was spectacular in the postseason for Cleveland a season ago, posting a 0.77 ERA across three games. He played a pivotal role in helping Cleveland reach the ALCS. Furthermore, Boyd pitched very well against the Padres earlier this year, surrendering only two runs across 11.1 innings in two starts against the Friars this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (R) RFLuis Arraez (L) 1BManny Machado (R) 3BJackson Merrill (L) CFXander Bogaerts (R) SSRyan O’Hearn (L) DHGavin Sheets (L) LFJake Cronenworth (L) 2BFreddy Fermin (R) CMichael Busch (L) 1BNico Hoerner (R) 2BIan Happ (S) LFKyle Tucker (L) DHSeiya Suzuki (R) RFCarson Kelly (R) CPete Crow-Armstrong (L) CFDansby Swanson (R) SSMatt Shaw (R) 3B
USA TODAY Sports’ MLB experts are split on the best-of-three wild card series between Chicago and San Diego:
Bob Nightengale: Cubs in 3Gabe Lacques: Padres in 2Jesse Yomtov: Padres in 2