The Seattle Mariners are among four MLB teams waiting to find out who their first playoff opponent will be.

Morosi: Why Tigers pose bigger threat to Seattle Mariners in ALDS

After winning the American League West and earning the AL’s No. 2 seed, the M’s received a bye into the AL Division Series. They’ll face the winner of the best-of-three wild card series matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers.

The Mariners fared equally as well against both teams in the regular season, going 4-2 against each. And the Guardians and Tigers finished just one game apart in the standings, with Cleveland surging to the AL Central title while the Tigers collapsed and finished in second place after leading by as many as 11 games in September. However, Detroit ended up taking Game 1 of the series 2-1 on Tuesday.

During a conversation with Seattle Sports’ Wyman and Bob the day before the series began, M’s analyst and former MLB pitcher Ryan Rowland-Smith shared is thoughts on who would be the tougher matchup for Seattle in the ALDS.

Initially, Rowland-Smith thought the Tigers would be the tougher opponent. Cleveland’s poor offense, which ranks bottom three in MLB in many major categories, was a big reason why. But he can’t ignore just how hot Cleveland was as it posted an MLB-best 20-7 record in September, and the way they did it.

“First of all, they’ve been surging,” Rowland-Smith said. “They’ve been doing it with pitching.”

More specifically, Cleveland’s bullpen was stellar all season. It was tied for the least amount of home runs surrendered in MLB at 50 and ranked third with a 3.44 ERA.

“I don’t want a situation where you’re down a couple of runs and then you run into that bullpen to finish off with (closer) Cade Smith, who’s just been electric lately with that (splitter),” Rowland-Smith said.

Rowland-Smith: Polanco will be Seattle Mariners’ X-factor in playoffs

Another factor Rowland-Smith considered is how each team would be able to line up its starting pitching after the wild card series. One of the major problems Detroit could present is the chance of facing reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal twice in a series, but the Tigers may not have that option if they were to reach the ALDS. At the very least, Skubal would have to throw on short rest.

“You’ve got Skubal that (pitched) Game 1 of this wild card series (on Tuesday), and therefore he’s not going to be ready (for) Game 1 (of the ALDS) or potentially Game 2, either,” Rowland-Smith said. “So all of a sudden, you’ve got a situation where you can get to their two, three and four starters – Casey Mize or (Jack) Flaherty behind (Skubal). Man, you can handle that.”

Rowland-Smith also isn’t all that concerned about a Tigers bullpen that was 17th in baseball with a 4.05 ERA and was second-to-last with a 20.1% strikeout rate.

“I’m telling you right now, you can beat up that bullpen and get into that bullpen,” he said. “And when I say beat it up, the back end’s gonna pitch every night, I get it. But when you get those extra looks, man, you’ve gotta be a really good arm out of that bullpen, you gotta have something extra special when you’re facing a lineup couple times and the same pockets of the lineup.”

“I think if you can get to a situation where you go to Detroit … and you don’t (face) Skubal Game 1, I definitely think they match up better against the Detroit Tigers,” Rowland-Smith added.

Hear the full conversation at this link or in the audio player near the top of this story. Listen to Wyman and Bob weekdays from 2-7 p.m. or find the podcast on the Seattle Sports app. 

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