With Justin Steele sustaining an early-season injury and Cade Horton suffering a poorly-timed one last week, the current state of the Chicago Cubs’ pitching staff is not engendering a ton of confidence. Despite this, Tuesday’s 3-1 victory over the San Diego Padres in the playoff opener might have given us a sneak peek into how, exactly, Craig Counsell plans on using what he has… at least to get through the wild card round. 

There was much talk prior to the series beginning about the Padres’ struggles against left-handed pitchers. As a team, they had a 96 wRC+ against lefties this season, according to FanGraphs. This means they were four percent worse than league average. Against righties, they had a 105 wRC+. That might not seem like a huge disparity, but in a three-game series, every single tiny little edge matters. 

With Matthew Boyd, a lefty, starting for the North siders, the Padres still decided to roll out a lineup with five left-handed hitters:

Considering both O’Hearn and Cronenworth have performed very well against southpaws, this might not look like too bad of a decision. Swap in their career platoon splits, though, and a clear picture is painted:

Player

wRC+ vs. LHP

wRC+ vs. RHP

Fernando Tatis Jr. – R

137

136

Luis Arraez – L

90

126

Manny Machado – R

128

121

Jackson Merrill – L

81

142

Xander Bogaerts – R

128

111

Ryan O’Hearn – L

78

108

Gavin Sheets – L

56

103

Jake Cronenworth – L

94

116

Freddy Fermin – R

87

90

Mike Shildt is practically telling Craig Counsell how to deploy his bullpen here: right-handers against the top of the order, left-handers against the bottom of the order. There is not a single hitter that has hit above average for their career against lefties in the 6-9 spots. 

Surprising nobody, this is exactly what Craig Counsell did! Matthew Boyd was removed after exactly two turns through the order, with one out and a runner on first in the top of the fifth. Boyd, it should be noted, was actually decently effective the third time through the order this season. Despite this, it seemed premeditated that Boyd was going to come out once the lineup turned over a third time. 

It makes a good bit of sense, too. With 13 outs to go, and the top of the order coming up, it aligned all too well for Craig Counsell to use his trusted, leverage arms to get through the remainder of the game. Daniel Palencia took hitters 1-5, then the lefty Drew Pomeranz came in for hitters 6-8. Andrew Kittredge, a righty, came in to retire Fermin, Tatis, and Arraez, and then Keller closed things out against 3-5 in the order. Not a single runner reached base, and in the process, the Cubs grabbed the lead and walked out of Wrigley Field with a win. The only thing that I was surprised to see was Palencia facing Merrill, but he sure made me look silly. How good was he?

The question, then, is whether Mike Shildt will do anything different with his lineup in Game 2. The top five in the lineup figure to remain the same. The Cubs have announced Andrew Kittredge as their starter, and I’d imagine he’ll only face Tatis, Arraez, and Machado, with Shota Imanaga figuring to follow to face the lefties thereafter.

The more I looked over their options, I don’t know what other choice Shildt has. Nobody is worried about a platoon advantage, or disadvantage, for Freddy Fermin, so he won’t break those lefties up. What options await on the bench?

Campusano, McCoy, and Johnson have combined for 137 MLB plate appearances, so I don’t think the Padres want to rely on them. Martin Maldonado has been one of the worst hitters in baseball this century. That leaves Iglesias, who could play for Cronenworth or O’Hearn, but still, with a 92 wRC+ against lefties, we’re not exactly talking about a world class hitter here. They’re really missing the presence of Ramon Laureano, who hit lefties incredibly well this year. 

Knowing Kittredge is starting, the Padres could move one of Merrill, O’Hearn, Sheets, or Cronenworth up so that they get to face a righty, but that bumps Tatis or Machado, their two best overall hitters, down in the lineup, which would also be a win for the Cubs. The Padres have no perfect solution here. 

In Game 1, Craig Counsell had a clear plan and it worked to perfection. Will the Padres try to counter it at all in Game 2? Or will they simply keep rolling with the group they believe is their best overall lineup?