Locks

MLB (0.5 Unit) Zach Littell Over 2.5 Earned Runs (+105; Odds via DraftKings): 8:08 PM CT on ESPN

Littell has mostly done solid work for the Reds since they acquired him from the Rays, but I think he’s walking into a buzzsaw tonight. Last night the Dodgers looked like a team that had heard too much about how this isn’t their year, and took it out on the best starter Cincinnati has. The Dodgers are built to crush righthanded pitching, leading baseball in runs scored against righties, while also ranking top-5 in OPS, weighted on-base average, and weighted runs created. If they’re still hot from last night and motivated to make a statement, they should jump on Littell and pay off this plus-money price.

 

MLB (0.75 Unit) Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-110; Odds via DraftKings): 8:08 PM CT on ESPN

There were times this summer when Yamamoto was struggling in a way that looked like he wouldn’t be a reliable starter for October. But he buttoned things up at the right time, coming into this game red hot and nearly untouchable. In Yamamoto’s past 5 starts he has pitched to an incredible 0.79 ERA and 0.65 WHIP, while also going over this outs prop in 6 of his past 7 overall. The big key for me is that LA knows their weakness is the bullpen, so they’ll want to maximize innings from a good starter and not give the Reds much hope of a late comeback. That should persuade Dave Roberts to let his starter go deep in this game like he did last night, and send Yamamoto over this outs prop.

 

Degenerates

No degenerates today.

 

 

Past 7 days Tiny Tracker: 29-26 (+5.81 Units) – Recommend: Tail With Caution

Tiny Nick has been writing betting picks for Zone Coverage since 2020. Every day he will offer his Locks and Degenerate picks. Locks are what he’s most confident in, while Degenerates are entertaining but riskier picks.