The Pittsburgh Pirates (15-31) visit the Philadelphia Phillies (27-18) on Sunday afternoon for the final game of their 3-game series at Citizens Bank Park. First pitch is scheduled for 1:35 p.m. ET. Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s MLB odds around the Pirates vs. Phillies odds and make our expert MLB picks and predictions for the best bets.

Season series: Phillies lead 2-0

Pittsburgh has dropped back-to-back games in Philadrelphia (8-4 Friday and 5-2 Saturday) and has lost 4 of its last 5 games. They lost Saturday as a +275 road underdog. RF Bryan Reynolds collected the Pirates only 2 RBIs on a 2-run home run in the top of the ninth inning to avoid a shutout.

Philadelphia has 3 of its last 4 games after covering Saturday as a -311 home favorite. 2B Bryson Stott had a solo home run and 3 RBIs.

Pirates at Phillies projected starters

RHP Paul Skenes vs. RHP Mick Abel

Skenes (3-4, 2.63 ERA) makes his 10th start. He has a 1.01 WHIP, 2.5 BB/9 and 8.7 K/9 in 54 2/3 innings.

Last start: No-decision, 6 IP, 1 ER, 6 H, 3 BB, 6 K in a 4-3 road loss against New York Mets MondaySunday will be his first career appearance against Philadelphia

Abel (5-2, 2.53 ERA) makes his first career start. He has a 1.21 WHIP, 3.7 BB/9 and 9.9 K/9 in 46 1/3 innings in AAA.

Makes MLB debut after being called up from AAA Lehigh Valley IronPigsWas the Phillies’ 15th pick in the 2020 MLB draftTaking the place of RHP Aaron Nola, who was recently placed on the IL (ankle)

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Pirates at Phillies odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Saturday at 10:12 p.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Pirates -115 (bet $100 to win $115) | Phillies -105 (bet $105 to win $100)Run line (RL)/Against the spread (ATS): Pirates -1.5 (+145) | Phillies +1.5 (-180)Over/Under (O/U): 8 (O: -105 | U: -115)Pirates at Phillies picks and predictionsPrediction

Pirates 4, Phillies 3

BET PIRATES (-115).

While the Pirates are just 3-7 over their last 10 games, Skenes will be the difference maker on Sunday. He has allowed 3 or fewer earned runs in all but 1 of his 9 starts and has a 2.63 ERA, which ranks 16th-best in the MLB. His 1.01 WHIP ranks 13th in the MLB, which points to his ability to keep runners off the base paths.

With Abel makinghis career debut for the Phillies, the Pirates will be presented with one of the few times this season where they hold the advantage. The away team has scored 4 or more runs in 2 of its last 3 games.

PASS.

The moneyline has the best value for the Pirates.

BET UNDER 8 (-115).

As stated above, Skenes does a phenomenal job of limiting runs and base runners. Opposing teams have scored 3 or fewer runs in each of the last 8 games he has started. The Pirates, as a whole, have hit the Under in 9 of their last 10 games while scoring 3 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 games and allowing 4 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10 contests.

The Phillies have avoided the Over in 7 of their last 10 while allowing 4 or fewer runs in 7 of their last 10.

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