In what has been one of the strangest, most unpredictable and pleasantly surprising Seattle Mariners seasons in team history, the only thing left to expect from the postseason is the unexpected.

Seattle Mariners prospect Colt Emerson has day to remember in scrimmage

I strongly believe they will be the better team in both the ALDS and (if they get there) the ALCS. But as we know, the team that is hottest, that executes and that takes advantage of key moments tends to advance. So what will the Mariners have to do to reach that fall classic?

I don’t know!

In fact, I’d be surprised if anyone does. But here are three things I think will need to happen in order to win the seven games necessary to claim the pennant. (Yes, this is only about the American League because everything could be different against a National League opponent.)

1. The starting pitching needs to be what it’s supposed to be.

Honestly, there is a decent argument to be made that this could be numbers one, two and three. It is that important.

For the last few years, we’ve said the Mariners were built for October. The sheer strength and depth of their rotation should give them an advantage in a longer series where they can throw a near ace every single night. But in order for that to work, the pitchers need to look more like they have in previous seasons than for much of this one.

The Mariners finished the season 13th in starter ERA, a number that looks a whole lot uglier away from the run suppression of T-Mobile Park. It is also behind four of their five potential AL opponents (with only the Blue Jays faring worse). We all know they are capable of a lot more.

Watching the first two days of the postseason, you can see what happens when teams get premier pitching versus when they don’t. Top-tier starters are going even deeper into games than usual, whereas everyone else is getting an extra-quick hook and relying on the bullpen early and often. The Mariners’ biggest weakness is the non-leverage portion of their ‘pen, so keeping those guys on the bench would seem to be a major advantage.

Only one Mariners starter averaged at least six innings per start this season, and he (Bryan Woo) is a complete unknown after straining his pec in his last start of the season. Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert and George Kirby all finished the season somewhere between 5 and 5.2 innings per start. The starters getting the team into the seventh inning would be huge.

Mariners Notebook: Bryan Woo’s status; scrimmage notes

2. Hitting with runners in scoring position.

My good friend and partner Brock Huard is obsessed with this stat, and for good reason. Seven of the top 10 teams in OPS with runners in scoring position made the postseason, as did nine of the top 14 teams in batting average with RISP. Detroit lost Game 2 in Cleveland on Wednesday because it went 1 for 15 with RISP, while the Guardians were 2 for 3.

We can debate the value of bunting, stealing and moving runners, but it is largely irrelevant if you can’t drive in runs. And the Mariners struggled with it this season. They finished 19th in MLB with a .736 OPS with RISP and 26th in batting average at just .235. Those numbers simply aren’t going to cut it in the playoffs.

Fortunately, those numbers include four months of a roster that was inferior to the current edition and one month where they were figuring out how to make the new lineup work. But there are players to watch in these situations.

Jorge Polanco led the team with a .337 batting average with RISP, followed by J.P. Crawford (.289), Dominic Canzone (.265), Julio Rodríguez (.246) and Cal Raleigh (.237). Meanwhile, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles, Josh Naylor (surprisingly) and Eugenio Suarez were all below .208. I think we can see who we want up in those spots.

3. Everything else!

Yeah, this is a cop-out answer. Sorry. But there are just so many things that can change a series.

Does the leverage relief hold leads? Is the defense solid throughout? Can they bash their way to some big leads to take the pressure off? Can they execute in those situations that do call for moving a runner over or a sac fly with a runner on third? Can they use their speed to put pressure on opposing pitchers without running into precious outs?

Some, or all, of those will end up playing a major factor in the coming weeks. Which ones? Well, as we said, this season has been unpredictable, so who knows?

More on the Seattle Mariners

• Three reasons the Seattle Mariners are built for a deep October run
• Times for Mariners’ first two ALDS games announced
• Why Hyphen sees Guardians as tougher ALDS test for M’s
• Morosi: Why Tigers pose bigger threat to Mariners in ALDS
• Ferguson gives Seattle Mariners a valuable chess piece in playoffs