Japanese pitcher Roki Sasaki will officially be posted by the Chiba Lotte Marines, his team in Nippon Professional Baseball, during next week’s Winter Meetings according to a new report from ESPN. Once posted, Sasaki can begin negotiating with Major League Baseball teams — the first step in the talented pitcher’s arrival in the United States.
Jeff Passan reports that when Sasaki’s posting window opens, the pitcher will have 45 days to sign with any MLB team.
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are considered the favorites to sign Sasaki within the industry. At 23 years old, Sasaki might be the best available pitcher in this year’s market.
When he was 20, Sasaki threw a 19-strikeout perfect game for the Marines in 2022. In his next start, he threw eight more perfect innings in a row. In the 2023 World Baseball Classic, his fastball sat 100 mph.
Last season, Sasaki went 10-5 with a 2.35 ERA in 18 starts for Chiba Lotte, with 129 strikeouts in 111 innings.
Under the posting system agreed to by MLB and NPB, Sasaki does not have enough playing experience with the Marines to qualify as a professional international free agent. Any player who is younger than 25, or has not played as a professional in NPB for a minimum of six seasons, is subject to international bonus pool money restrictions even if they’re among the best pro players in their homeland.
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Therefore, Sasaki is being classified as an “amateur” by MLB. His signing bonus is limited to whatever amount a team can offer within its international amateur bonus pool allotment.
For that reason, don’t expect Sasaki to sign until a new international amateur signing period begins on Jan. 15. On that date, teams’ bonus pools will increase to the $5.1 to $7.6 million range as it currently stands.
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Teams can also trade for additional international amateur bonus money in the meantime, but not enough to measurably change Sasaki’s earning potential.
ESPN’s Buster Olney, speaking on the Baseball Tonight podcast, said the industry consensus isn’t just overwhelming about where Sasaki will sign; it’s unanimous.
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“In theory he could play for any one of the 30 teams because he’s not going to get a big free agent deal the way (Yoshinobu) Yamamoto did last winter. He’s going to wind up taking a very minimal deal the way Shohei Ohtani did,” Olney said of Sasaki. “I had a conversation with executives about this. Thirty out of 30 teams believe he’s going to the Dodgers. That’s the reality, right? But we don’t really know what’s in his heart. You won’t really know until he actually is having these conversations.”
The Winter Meetings begin Monday in Dallas, Texas.
More to come on this story from Newsweek Sports.