Detroit Tigers win vs Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of AL wild card
Evan Petzold breaks down the Detroit Tigers’ 6-3 win vs the Cleveland Guardians in Game 3 of the AL wild-card series on Thursday, Oct. 2, 2025.
After a playoff series just dripping with history and rivalry and … Midwest-ness — for those keeping track, the Detroit Tigers are now ahead in their 125-season rivalry with the Guardians, 1,118 wins to 1,117 wins (see you next year, Cleveland) — we’re left to pivot to an ALDS against the Seattle Mariners, who are making just the sixth playoff appearance in their 49 seasons.
Oh, there’s some shared history between the teams. The M’s were the first visitors to Comerica Park, back on a wintry day — in the way only mid-April can be in Detroit — back in 2000.
The Tigers won that one, 5-2, despite M’s catcher Dan Wilson going 3-for-4. Future Tiger Freddy Garcia giving up five runs in six innings probably helped Detroit’s cause a bit. Also in the lineup for Seattle: future Tiger Carlos Guillén — not to be confused with the Tigers’ current translator — and Mike Cameron, father of future Tiger Daz Cameron, just in case you weren’t feeling old enough.
Fast forward a bit, and Wilson is the Mariners’ manager, and the Tigers have the overall edge in the series, 234-215 (with one tie). Along the way, 66 players have suited up for both the Tigers and Mariners — everyone from Tigers great Willie Horton to Mariners great … uhhh (did we mention Carlos Guillén?) to, this season, Eugenio Suárez for the M’s and Paul Sewald and Will Vest for the Tigers.
Those three could play a big part in the best-of-five ALDS that starts Saturday (8:38 p.m., FS1) in Seattle. Let’s take a look at how the teams stack up, position by position, with a spot in the ALCS — somewhere the Tigers haven’t been since 2013 and the Mariners haven’t been since 2001 — on the line.
C: Dillon Dingler vs. Cal Raleigh
It’s a Dingler vs. a Dumper in a matchup that sounds dirtier than it is, though both have filthy fielding skills (Dingler finished second in the AL in caught-stealing percentage 31.7% this year; Raleigh finished third in the AL last year) and could be Gold Glove finalists. At the plate, the Tigers catcher had a breakout season, hitting .278 with 13 homers — though only one came in September. (On the bright side, Dingler walked three times in three games against the Guardians — more than he did in March and April combined. Progress!) But the M’s catcher, aka “Big Dumper,” had a monster season in which his All-Star Home Run Derby win is merely an afterthought — after Raleigh pounded 54 homers in Atlanta to become the first catcher with a Derby title, he launched 22 second-half regular-season dingers to become the fourth AL player with 60 homers in a season. Edge: Mariners.
1B: Spencer Torkelson vs. Josh Naylor
Just nine of Torkelson’s 31 homers came after July 24. That’s the same amount Naylor the Elder — the Tigers just vanquished Naylor the Younger along with the Guardians — hit after joining the M’s that day. Of course, Naylor the Elder (or “the Mississauga Masher,” to his fellow Canadians) also has 19 steals (and zero caught-stealings) as a Mariner, bringing him to 20 homers and 30 steals this season. Naylor the Elder is also just the 20th first baseman in MLB history with a 20-homer, 20-steal … but just the fourth to play in the American League in said season. (The “fourth American Leaguer” thing will not be a recurring thing, we promise.) Edge: Mariners.
2B Gleyber Torres vs. Jorge Polanco
Both these fellas struggled to get paid in the free agent market, with Torres settling for a one-year deal in hopes of earning a $100 million contract this offseason, while Polanco took a $3.5 million pay cut to re-sign in Seattle. Torres went on to make the AL All-Star team, but since the start of September, he’s been one of the AL’s worst-hitting second basemen, with a .209 average, two homers and 10 RBIs in the final month. Polanco, though? Merely the AL’s best-hitting second baseman over that span, with a .329/.380/.634 slash line. Edge: Mariners.
3B: Zach McKinstry vs. Eugenio Suárez
If Colt Keith is healthy and ready to return for the Tigers, this matchup gets closer … but it still goes to an ex-Tigers prospect-turned-50-homer slugger in Suárez (though he only had 49 this year with the M’s and Arizona Diamondbacks). A Tigers trade target in July, Suárez returned to Seattle (where he spent the 2022-23 seasons) at the deadline; in September, he posted a .700 OPS the hard way — .250 on-base, .450 slugging — so even when he’s struggling, there’s power there. McKinstry, meanwhile, outperformed Suárez last month with a .714 OPS — but it wasn’t particularly scenic, either: .288/.426. Edge: Mariners.
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SS: Javier Báez vs. J.P. Crawford
We compared him to Wile E. Coyote, plummeting to the bottom of a canyon, in our last scouting report. He responded by going 5-for-13 against the Guardians in arguably the Tigers’ Most Valuable Performance at the place. (We’re legally and spiritually banned from picking an M.V.P. in a three-game series.) He also still did not walk, bringing his total of walks since his All-Star Game start to … one. To be fair, Crawford also did not draw a walk this week. He didn’t play a game, with the M’s getting a first-round bye, but that seems like nitpicking after he crushed an .822 OPS in September. Edge: Mariners.
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LF: Riley Greene vs. Randy Arozarena
Greene made the AL All-Star team while hitting .258 with 36 home runs, 111 RBIs and 201 strikeouts — becoming the first Tiger with more than 200 strikeouts. Arozarena made the AL All-Star team while hitting .238 with 27 home runs, 76 RBIs and 191 strikeouts — becoming the fourth … Mariner with more than 190 strikeouts. (He also stole 31 bases while getting caught just six times, but that’s more of a note for Dillon Dingler.) Edge: Tigers (barely).
CF: Parker Meadows vs. Julio Rodríguez
Rodríguez had 18 homers and 13 steals after the All-Star break to finish with 32 and 30, respectively — making him the second player in MLB history with two 30-30 seasons before turning 25. (It’s also his fourth 20-20 season in four tries … the fourth American Leaguer with that many at that age.) Edge: Mariners.
RF: Wenceel Pérez vs. Victor Robles
The M’s trotted out a new right fielder in Wednesday’s public intrasquad scrimmage, but we’re pretty sure he won’t be suiting up in the ALDS: Hall of Famer Ichiro Suzuki manned the outfield, though he didn’t take any at-bats. Those should go to Robles, who was feeling good enough to dominate the Salmon Race after going 0-for-9 in his final four games of the regular season. Pérez, meanwhile, has the edge in pretty much every statistical category, trailing only in bats thrown at opposing pitchers. Edge: Tigers.
DH: Kerry Carpenter vs. Dominic Canzone
Canzone, who’ll be 28 years and 48 days old on Saturday, was a teammate of Dillon Dingler’s at Ohio State in 2018 and 2019 and posted a .308/.355/.524 slash line (with 10 homers) in 201 plate appearances against right-handers this season. Carpenter, who’ll be 28 years and 32 days old on Saturday, is a teammate of Dingler’s this season and posted a .257/.300/.512 slash line (with 23 homers) in 401 plate appearances against righties this season. Edge: Mariners.
Bench
Nobody went to their bench more often than the Tigers, who got a .723 OPS — fifth in the AL out of their league-leading 210 plate appearances by pinch hitters. The Mariners came in fourth in pinch-hit PAs (168) but only ninth in OPS (.567). Still, watch out for backup catcher Mitch Garver, who feasted on the Tigers in his days with the Minnesota Twins. Edge: Tigers.
Rotation
To paraphrase one notable Woo: To be the man, you’ve gotta beat the man, and if the Tigers can get the series to five games, they get to pitch Seattle University alumnus Tarik Skubal — pretty much the man on the mound over the past 2½ years — twice (in Seattle, no less). How Casey Mize fared in a likely Game 3 start might be the key to getting to Game 5; the M’s went scoreless with one hit over 5⅔ innings against him in April, and scored six runs on six hits against him in July.
As for another notable Woo, the M’s are being pretty tight-lipped about their plans for All-Star ace Bryan Woo (who missed the Tigers entirely this year but blanked them in seven innings in 2024) as he recovers from a strained pectoral muscle suffered Sept. 19 (leading to the classic call-and-response: Woo? Pec!) Then again, having right-hander Logan Gilbert, who has 19 strikeouts against the Tigers in 10⅓ innings this season, is a pretty good fallback plan. Edge: Even.
Bullpen
With five runs in the final four innings Thursday, the Tigers knocked out arguably the best bullpen in the American League. Their reward? The second-best bullpen, at least in terms of giving up walks and home runs over the final two months of the regular season; M’s relievers, led by All-Star closer Andrés Muñoz, posted a 3.57 FIP from Aug. 1 on, behind only Cleveland’s 2.89. Tigers relievers over the same span? 4.62, second-worst in the AL. Edge: Mariners.
Manager: A.J. Hinch vs. Dan Wilson
A.J. Hinch is coming off a third-place finish in the Manager of the Year and seems likely to draw votes again, though, September collapse yadda yadda yadda. Dan Wilson, meanwhile, is in his first full season as a manager — after going 21-13 last season — and really hasn’t been talked up that much, despite a career .566 winning percentage that ranks No. 1 among all Mariners managers. (Then again, that may be more of a reflection of the franchise’s sorry history.) Edge: Tigers.
Prediction
Just counting the categories, we get the Mariners with an 8-4 edge (with one tie) — which seems about what you’d expect from the AL’s No. 2 seed vs. the No. 6 seed. Then again, the teams finished just three wins apart, with the Mariners’ plus -72 run differential just edging the Tigers’ plus-67.
It’s still a short series, and Tarik Skubal dominates in Game 2; the Tigers ride the vibes of the Comerica Park crowd for a Game 3 win, to get within a win of the ALCS. But for the second straight year, the Tigers fall. At least there won’t be a grand slam in Game 5. We think. The pick: Mariners in 5.
Ryan Ford is deputy sports editor for the Free Press and has been with Freep Sports since January 2006. Contact him at rford@freepress.com or follow him on X (which used to be Twitter, y’know?) @theford and on BlueSky at @theford.bsky.social.