SEATTLE — Free Press sports writer Evan Petzold breaks down the best-of-five ALDS in the 2025 MLB playoffs between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners, beginning Saturday at T-Mobile Park.
The managers: Tigers — A.J. Hinch (964-868 career; 349-416 with Tigers; 34-26 in postseason; 6-4 with Tigers in postseason); Mariners — Dan Wilson (111-85 career and with Mariners; 0-0 in postseason).
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Regular-season series: Mariners, 4-2.
Top three players: Tigers — LHP Tarik Skubal, LF Riley Greene, DH Kerry Carpenter; Mariners — C Cal Raleigh, CF Julio Rodríguez, RHP Bryan Woo.
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Key matchupsThe A.J. Hinch advantage
Detroit Tigers manager A.J. Hinch (14) walks off the field after a pitching change against Cleveland Guardians during the fourth inning of Game 2 of AL wild-card series at Progressive Field in Cleveland, Ohio on Wednesday, Oct. 1, 2025.
The managerial matchup is lopsided.
A.J. Hinch will run circles, managerially speaking, around Dan Wilson, giving the Tigers a massive advantage in the ALDS. Not only is Hinch one of the best managers in baseball, but he is an elite tactician who squeezes every ounce out of his roster. Only a few managers, such as the Tampa Bay Rays’ Kevin Cash and the Kansas City Royals’ Matt Quatraro, can keep up with him in the chess match. For most, Hinch is usually two or three moves ahead. For Wilson, it might feel like Hinch is a dozen moves ahead.
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Wilson took over as Mariners manager in August 2024 after Scott Servais was fired. At the time, Wilson had no managerial experience beyond brief fill-ins in the minor leagues. Players in the Mariners’ clubhouse respect his leadership, in part because he played 14 MLB seasons as a catcher, but his in-game decisions have drawn plenty of criticism. The reality is, Wilson has been learning strategy on the fly for the past 14 months — and it shows.
Meanwhile, Hinch is a savant when it comes to in-game decisions.
Hinch has experience on his side, managing 1,832 games in 12 seasons compared to Wilson’s 196 games in two seasons. Additionally, Hinch has led teams to the postseason six times, including two trips to the World Series — and Game 7 in both World Series. For Wilson, this is his first October experience.
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Bryan Woo and Mariners rotation
Seattle Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo (22) pitches against the Texas Rangers during the first inning at Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
Is Bryan Woo healthy?
The Mariners will start right-hander George Kirby (vs. right-hander Troy Melton) in Game 1, followed by right-hander Luis Castillo (vs. left-hander Tarik Skubal) in Game 2. The Mariners’ All-Star starter is lined up for Game 3, but it’s uncertain whether Woo will be on the ALDS roster as he recovers from inflammation in his pectoral muscle.
It’s trending toward Woo being active — a boost that would only strengthen an already dominant rotation.
From 2023-25, Mariners starters ranked No. 1 in MLB with a 3.74 ERA. These five arms deserve the credit: Woo (3.21 ERA), Logan Gilbert (3.46 ERA), Castillo (3.50), Kirby (3.63) and Bryce Miller (4.01). Four of them are locked in for the ALDS. If Woo is ready, all five will be available.
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The Mariners won seven of Woo’s final nine starts during the regular season. The 25-year-old right-hander logged a 2.94 ERA with 36 walks and 198 strikeouts across 186⅔ innings in 30 starts, but he hasn’t pitched since departing his Sept. 19 start early with the pec issue.
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Best AL roster? Mariners
Seattle Mariners catcher Cal Raleigh celebrates after hitting a solo home run during the eighth inning against the Colorado Rockies at T-Mobile Park.
Here are the six AL teams in the postseason, in order of seeding: The Toronto Blue Jays, the Mariners, the Cleveland Guardians, the New York Yankees, the Boston Red Sox and the Tigers. Of those, the Mariners have the best October roster.
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The rotation is full of young arms with Cy Young potential, the bullpen is anchored by star closer Andrés Muñoz and complemented by three other high-leverage relievers with sub-3.00 ERAs and the offense is led by catcher Cal Raleigh and outfielder Julio Rodríguez, both projected to finish top-10 in MVP voting.
Raleigh hit .247 with 60 home runs, 97 walks and 188 strikeouts in 159 games; Rodríguez hit .267 with 32 homers, 44 walks and 152 strikeouts in 160 games. If Yankees superstar Aaron Judge didn’t exist, Raleigh would be the 2025 AL MVP winner.
The offense is deeper than two star players.
Don’t forget about Randy Arozarena, J.P. Crawford, Jorge Polanco, Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez, among others. It’s no surprise the Mariners ranked as the No. 2 offense in MLB during the regular season, trailing only the Yankees. For comparison, the Tigers’ offense ranked 12th.
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Prediction
The Mariners enter October with the AL’s most complete roster — an elite rotation led by Woo, a dominant bullpen anchored by Muñoz and a top-tier offense powered by Raleigh and Rodriguez. The Tigers, however, hold one clear edge: Hinch is a far better manager than Wilson. To advance, the Tigers need to maximize Skubal, who is lined up for Game 2 and a potential Game 5. If the Tigers steal Game 1 behind the rookie Melton for a 1-0 lead and ride Skubal to a 2-0 lead, the path to the ALCS against the Blue Jays or Yankees becomes wide open. The pick: Tigers in 4.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
Listen to our weekly Tigers show “Days of Roar” every Monday afternoon on Apple, Spotify or wherever you listen to podcasts.
This article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: What decides Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners ALDS playoffs series?