A partial tear of the patella tendon. All good to go by spring training? Able to play but compromised? Starting the season on the IL for a month? Two? We just don’t know because every body is different and not every “partial tear” is identical.
So the A’s have to do a certain amount of guesswork — albeit educated guesses based on medical feedback — on whether they have an every day RF all season or … do they need to be prepared to be without Lawrence Butler for a period of time and if so how does this inform their off-season?
The A’s outfield appears to have two other mainstays anchoring LF and CF at least on paper: Tyler Soderstrom and Denzel Clarke will play so long as their bodies allow. From there it’s anybody’s guess where the A’s are thinking.
The other outfielders who saw big league time in 2025 are JJ Bleday, Colby Thomas, and Carlos Cortes.
It has been popular to presume or propose that Bleday be trade fodder this off-season — with Butler in the mix he is a third LH hitting outfielder and at best a 4th OFer overall and his 2025 season left much to be desired both at the plate and in the field.
And yet, as a “bounce back” and “change of scenery” candidate with 4 years of contract control remaining and still only 27, Bleday might have some appeal for a team looking to improve a weak hitting outfield.
The question here is: given that Bleday is also a LH hitting COFer (please say that 100 times so you’re not tempted to let him butcher CF ever again), will the A’s be less inclined to deal him this winter?
Blogfather Sez: Deal Bleday for whatever you can get, as Cortes would be the better insurance policy/4th OFer of the two anyway. Butler’s situation should not impact Bleday’s standing in any way — there are better fits to be found for back up as needed and even if Bleday has more good seasons in him most likely they will not happen with Sacramento.
On the surface, Cortes looks like a gem: .309/.323/.543 (132 wRC+) in 42 games. In reality, his .347 BABIP portends regression and his 3.0% BB rate was not impressive — though he did have quite a few sensational PAs along the way.
You would think Butler’s uncertain recovery would at least solidify a spot on the 40 man roster for the LH batting Cortes.
Blogfather Sez: Don’t expect Cortes to pick up where he left off batting over .300 and slugging over .500, but he has enough good qualities that as a LH hitting COFer he is a worthy insurance policy as a 4th/5th OFer who can man RF for a stretch early in the season if need be.
Thomas is a RH batter and as such is the least comparable to Butler. Adding to the points against Colby are that he has extremely strong platoon splits (in his big league sample, against LHP he hit .246/.304/.590, 136 wRC+ and against RHP he hit .203/.226/.237, 23 wRC+) so he does not really profile as an every day starter right now.
Blogfather Sez: I’m not terribly high on Thomas in general, as he doesn’t adjust his swing, K’d 37.1% of the time, was putrid against RHP, and didn’t impress me much on defense either. His situation, as a RH hitting 4th OFer type, doesn’t really intersect with Butler in any way. So whether he starts at AAA or as a ‘weak side platoon’ 4th OFer, the A’s need different contingencies for Butler than Thomas provides anyway.
There are a couple interesting minor league OFers close to the big leagues, but both are RH batters: Junior Perez and Henry Bolte. Perez profiles more as an understudy to Denzel Clarke and Bolte will not be ready for the big leagues the first part of the season anyway.
Blogfather Sez: Unless the A’s are secretly really high on Perez’ ability to join the big leagues in April and make a positive impact — unlikely given how volatile and streaky his 2025 season was — in all likelihood there is no one at AAA who is pushing for a starting OF job to start the season.
So do the A’s factor Butler’s recovery in or do they focus solely on pitching, 2B/3B, the areas well known to be in need of attention?
Here’s where you might see not a LH hitting COFer targeted in trade but rather the less sexy but sometimes rewarding scouring of the “someone’s trash” that can become “your treasure”.
The benefit is that you can invite someone to spring training or sign them to a minor league deal without giving up prospects, or committing appreciable money. And when you’re not necessarily looking for a full time player — maybe a fill in or back up plan — that approach makes a lot of sense.
Now what does that yield? Often it’s a Conner Capel. It can certainly land you a Carlos Cortes. You can get lucky (Farhan Zaidi’s manifesto would argue it wasn’t luck) and get Brandon Moss to anchor the lineup for 3 years.
Unless the A’s know, or strongly fear, that Butler will be out well into the season, look for the team not to focus on the outfield in significant trades or free agent pursuits, but instead to look at making some NRIs (non roster invitees) that might not be high profile names with a track record of success, but who could be “sneakily good” if things roll a certain way.
Often these are older players with a spotty track record, players who were once promising but whose age and lack of success have bumped them off the 40 man roster in favor of a younger buck. (This describes Moss’ situation pretty well as he wound up coming into his own with the A’s at age 28.)
If you have any preferred targets who fit this demographic, please throw them into the comments and we will see if the A’s might take a flier on one or more of them.
Of course in a perfect world, Butler makes a speedy and full recovery and plays in 150 games in 2026. We just know that it’s far from a perfect world.