Dale Zanine-Imagn Images
The world has changed in a lot of ways over the last dozen years, some good, and some… not. One thing that doesn’t change, however, is the status of Freddie Freeman at or near the top of the first base dogpile.
If at any point over the last decade you made a list of baseball’s top first basemen and didn’t include Freeman, you hopefully crumpled your list and started over again. Freeman will celebrate the 15th anniversary of his 2010 major league debut with the Braves later this year, and more than 2,000 hits and 350 homers later, he’s likely just rounding out the text on his bronze Hall of Fame plaque.
Back in 2014 and 2015, the Braves made the decision to do a full rebuild, the most significant teardown of their roster since the late 1980s. Brian McCann, Andrelton Simmons, B.J. and Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, and Dan Uggla were out, but when it came to their star first baseman, they took the opposite approach. Atlanta doubled down on Freeman, extending him on an eight-year, $135 million contract that secured his services until after the 2021 season. Here’s what the ZiPS projection had for him at the time:
ZiPS Projection – Freddie Freeman (Pre-2014)
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
OPS+
WAR
2014
.291
.369
.484
574
89
167
32
2
25
104
68
137
2
131
3.4
2015
.287
.370
.484
568
89
163
33
2
25
104
71
140
2
131
3.3
2016
.286
.372
.489
569
90
163
33
2
26
104
74
142
2
133
3.5
2017
.284
.373
.491
566
91
161
32
2
27
105
76
145
3
134
3.6
2018
.282
.373
.489
564
91
159
32
2
27
105
78
146
3
133
3.5
2019
.280
.371
.477
558
89
156
31
2
25
101
78
141
3
130
3.2
2020
.280
.370
.477
553
87
155
30
2
25
100
75
133
3
130
3.1
2021
.279
.367
.465
542
83
151
28
2
23
94
72
127
3
126
2.7
Suffice it to say, the investment in Freeman was a wise one. ZiPS thought the contract was reasonable at the time, projecting him for 26.4 WAR for the length of the extension, and the algorithm would have offered him a deal worth $154 million. He was even better than that, amassing 35.4 over the next eight seasons. Freeman was none the worse for wear by the time the Braves were good again, and he remained the centerpiece of the offense, hitting .306/.398/.532, for a wRC+ of 142 and 16.7 WAR from 2018 through 2021, a stretch that included an MVP award in the shortened 2020 season and a World Series title in the final year.
Negotiations with Freeman on another extension didn’t pan out as anyone expected. Four days after the lockout ended, with Freeman still a free agent, the Braves traded for Matt Olson and signed him to an eight-year, $168 million extension. At the time, I thought it looked like a reasonable deal. After all, Olson was coming off a monster season of his own in 2021, and was 4 1/2 years younger than Freeman, who signed with the Dodgers later that week. Here’s how the two players have performed so far with their new teams:
Freddie Freeman vs. Matt Olson, 2022-2025
Player
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
wRC+
WAR
Freeman
.317
.401
.532
1903
351
604
151
7
81
324
248
344
45
156
20.7
Olson
.254
.349
.504
1975
314
501
114
4
124
361
279
548
1
132
13.3
From the results, you’d think Olson was the one entering his mid-30s, not Freeman. Olson has hit more homers, but in most other ways, Freeman has remained the superior first baseman.
However, we’re not here to adjudicate past debates over which first baseman Atlanta should’ve picked, but to marvel at Freeman’s agelessness. In 2025, he’s off to a blazing hot start, hitting .366/.431/.714 over the first quarter of the season, for a Judgeian wRC+ of 210. If he doesn’t make his ninth All-Star team this July, I’m in favor of a full congressional investigation. Freeman hasn’t had quite the dizzying highs of two other contemporary Hall of Fame-bound first basemen, Albert Pujols and Miguel Cabrera, but his skill set has been far more enduring than theirs. By 35, Pujols was just hanging on as a middling first baseman, and Cabrera’s last year as a decent starter came at age 33. Yet Freeman remains exactly who he’s always been: a solid first baseman with power just below the elites, excellent plate discipline, and the ability to line a gapper as easily as he crushes a homer. He also maintains a high batting average in an environment where few else can.
Among players FanGraphs categorizes as first basemen, Freeman was just out of the top 20 in career WAR through his age-31 season, his last with Atlanta. But in only three-plus seasons since then, he’s already been one of the better first basemen ever from age 32 onward.
Elite First Basemen Through Age 31
Name
G
PA
HR
AVG
OBP
SLG
wRC+
WAR
wRC+ (Age 32+)
WAR (Age 32+)
Jimmie Foxx
1834
7853
464
.337
.439
.640
163
90.6
125
10.8
Lou Gehrig
1538
6847
348
.344
.444
.643
175
84.5
162
31.4
Stan Musial
1524
6746
227
.346
.431
.579
172
81.4
141
45.0
Albert Pujols
1705
7433
445
.328
.420
.617
167
81.3
108
8.6
Miguel Cabrera
1819
7811
390
.320
.396
.564
152
60.9
113
7.9
Jeff Bagwell
1317
5800
263
.304
.416
.545
158
56.9
135
23.3
Dick Allen
1363
5769
287
.299
.386
.553
163
55.1
126
6.2
Frank Thomas
1371
6092
301
.320
.440
.573
166
53.8
136
18.2
Eddie Murray
1659
7109
305
.296
.372
.502
139
53.2
112
18.8
Roger Connor
1083
4781
66
.324
.388
.491
152
52.5
132
33.7
Harry Heilmann
1574
6642
121
.339
.406
.506
141
50.2
145
18.4
Dan Brouthers
980
4454
81
.345
.408
.535
162
49.9
148
29.6
Keith Hernandez
1572
6452
115
.301
.390
.445
134
48.7
121
10.7
Hank Greenberg
1049
4670
249
.325
.418
.622
153
47.2
152
13.4
Willie McCovey
1374
5219
313
.283
.380
.550
158
47.0
130
20.4
George Sisler
1198
5258
69
.353
.396
.498
141
46.6
96
5.5
Jim Thome
1377
5723
334
.287
.414
.567
150
45.8
137
23.2
John Olerud
1555
6390
186
.299
.404
.477
134
45.0
121
12.3
Todd Helton
1279
5427
271
.337
.433
.607
147
44.3
112
10.7
Orlando Cepeda
1699
6973
306
.299
.351
.505
134
43.4
120
7.0
Harmon Killebrew
1433
5889
380
.264
.375
.537
147
43.3
135
22.7
Johnny Mize
996
4189
184
.331
.413
.588
167
43.2
140
24.9
Ed Konetchy
1576
6572
55
.279
.349
.404
122
42.6
109
6.7
Freddie Freeman
1565
6660
271
.295
.384
.509
138
42.5
156
20.7
Jake Beckley
1461
6491
72
.307
.365
.454
119
42.3
119
18.9
This group of top first basemen through their age-31 seasons averaged an additional 17.8 WAR for the rest of their careers. Freeman currently ranks ninth among this group in WAR Age 32+, and if the ZiPS rest-of-season projection is correct, he’ll climb to sixth by the end of this season. This seems an opportune moment to project the rest of Freeman’s career, based on data through Tuesday’s games.
ZiPS Projection – Freddie Freeman
Year
BA
OBP
SLG
AB
R
H
2B
3B
HR
RBI
BB
SO
SB
wRC+
WAR
RoS 2025
.305
.389
.520
414
72
126
28
2
19
74
53
77
7
153
3.9
2026
.302
.385
.513
564
97
170
40
2
25
97
71
106
9
148
4.7
2027
.291
.375
.486
502
82
146
34
2
20
82
63
97
7
138
3.5
2028
.283
.365
.464
453
70
128
30
2
16
69
55
91
5
130
2.5
2029
.270
.353
.435
400
59
108
25
1
13
57
48
84
4
119
1.6
2030
.259
.343
.410
351
49
91
21
1
10
47
41
79
3
110
0.9
2031
.252
.335
.390
290
38
73
17
1
7
36
33
69
2
102
0.4
2032
.252
.332
.394
238
30
60
14
1
6
28
26
57
2
102
0.2
Rest of Career
.281
.364
.462
3212
497
902
209
12
116
490
390
660
40
129
17.7
Career to Date
.301
.388
.514
7670
1320
2308
518
32
352
1265
1024
1656
98
143
63.2
Total Career
.295
.381
.499
10882
1817
3210
727
44
468
1755
1414
2316
138
139
80.9
If Freeman were to reach 80.9 WAR, that would be enough to rank him sixth among first basemen for his career, and one of the five ahead of him is Stan Musial, whom JAWS classifies as a right fielder. ZiPS now projects Freeman with a 61% chance of eclipsing 3,000 hits, the best odds of any active player, and a 36% probability of hitting 500 homers. By JAWS, ZiPS would put him in a dead heat with the current sixth-place first baseman, Jeff Bagwell. The question really shouldn’t be whether or not Freeman is a future Hall of Famer, but whether he’d pass the proverbial bus test right now. For me, he does. Also, why is our standard imagined demise for mid-career Hall of Famers a fatal run-in with mass transit?
Time always ends up the winner in the end. But Freeman is currently fighting time to a draw for longer than most greats.