Garion Thorne details his top home run props for Monday’s NLDS slate, including bets for Will Smith and Andrew Vaughn.
Home runs. Long balls. Bleacher reachers. Whatever you want to call them, people love watching and betting on home run props during baseball games. So much so, we’ve got a whole article dedicated to just that.
On Monday, it’s the National League’s time to shine, as we get a Game 2 in Milwaukee and a Game 2 in Philadelphia. In search of a couple home run props? Here are my favorites on the DraftKings Sportsbook: Will Smith and Andrew Vaughn.
Top Home Run Props on DraftKings Sportsbook
Though Will Smith didn’t start Game 1 of the NLDS, he eventually found himself on the field, getting in two at-bats. To me, that’s a pretty clear sign that the All-Star will be available to start tonight’s Game 2. Smith was limited to just 436 plate appearances in the regular season due to injury, but the backstop posted career-highs in slugging percentage (.497), wOBA (.389) and wRC+ (153) for a (mostly) full campaign. Smith also ranked in the 94th percentile of the league in expected wOBA (.386). Specific to this evening’s matchup, Smith has never really had all that much success against Jesus Luzardo. However, since the beginning of 2022, the 30-year-old is in possession of a .221 ISO and a 134 wRC+ versus southpaws. Smith’s .505 expected slugging percentage within the split in 2025 also ranked second on the Dodgers to only Shohei Ohtani (+249).
Andrew Vaughn 1+ Home Run (+418)
The fact that Andrew Vaughn crushes left-handed pitching isn’t new — it just seems like he needed out of Chicago to re-find that dormant skill. Formerly the No. 3 overall pick in the 2019 MLB Draft, Vaughn posted a 154 wRC+ across 141 plate appearance versus southpaws in his rookie campaign in 2021. He then hit .307 off lefties in 2022. I can not overstate how much Vaughn was dubbed a “lefty smasher” in DFS and betting communities. That version of Vaughn has been back ever since the first baseman was traded to Milwaukee, with Vaughn posting a team-high .641 expected slugging percentage off LHPs during the regular season. Now he’ll get to face-off with Shota Imanaga, who simply can not keep the ball in the park as of late. For 2025 as a whole, Imanaga surrendered 2.22 home runs per nine to opposing RHBs. Over only his final six starts of the regular season, Imanaga conceded a jaw-dropping 3.12 home runs per nine to all opponents. Woof. Manny Machado tagged Imanaga in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series. I could certainly see Vaughn doing the same tonight.