Every year, arbitration salaries are projected for the coming year by MLB Trade Rumors based on the algorithm put together 15 years ago by Matt Swartz. As those of you who read the morning links post know, this year’s projections dropped last night.

The Rangers currently have nine players on their 40 man roster who are arbitration-eligible. Those players, along with their projected 2026 salaries, are as follows:

There don’t appear to be any particularly difficult decisions here. Adolis Garcia and Jonah Heim are the two relatively expensive guys, and each of them has now had two straight disappointing offensive seasons. The Rangers are almost certainly going to go through the arbitration process with either of them, given the projected salaries.

It is possible that the Rangers can do with one or both of them what they did with Dane Dunning and Josh Sborz last year — negotiate a one year salary in advance of the non-tender deadline that involves a pay cut from 2025. The maximum amount a player who is arbitration-eligible can have his salary reduced without being non-tendered or otherwise released first, even by agreement, is 20%. For Adolis Garcia, who made $9.25M in 2025, that would be $7.4M. For Jonah Heim, who made $4.575M in 2025, that amount would be $3.66M.

The chances of Garcia returning would seem to be remote. The Rangers are not going to be looking to run it back again, and the two spots where it would seem most likely that the team would look to upgrade — or at least make a change — would be right field and first base. You could theoretically argue for bringing Garcia back as the short side of a platoon with Evan Carter or Joc Pederson, but I don’t think that’s a great fit, and I think the Rangers would probably opt for a clean break rather than having Garcia return as a role player, even assuming Garcia were willing to take the paycut required.

Heim is a tougher call. The Rangers signed Kyle Higashioka last offseason to a 2 year, $13.5 million deal to split time with Heim. Higashioka had a better year than Heim — despite his slow start, he put up a 102 OPS+, a tad better than his 101 OPS+ in 2024 — but he also struggled to stay healthy. Higashioka only started 68 games behind the plate in 2025, and has never started more than 77 games at catcher in a season. At his age — he turns 36 in April — its unlikely Higashioka is going to start handling the lion’s share of the starts behind the plate in 2026.

There’s a dearth of starting caliber catchers on the free agent market this offseason. J.T. Realmuto is the best of the group, though he’s coming off the worst offensive season of his career and still isn’t likely to be cheap. Danny Jansen made $8.5 million in 2025 and is likely looking at something similar for 2026. After that, you’ve mostly got guys you’d prefer to have as a backup, not a starter.

So the Rangers have to ask themselves, do they try to work out a deal to keep Heim around, figuring that he’s at least durable and a known commodity? Or do they decide to make a change, and explore the trade market as well as the free agent market to find someone who can start 90-100 games at catcher in 2026?

The other player almost certainly non-tendered is Josh Sborz. His arbitration salary is low, but he didn’t pitch well in 2024, didn’t pitch in the majors at all in 2025, and is an NRI candidate at this point.

Its worth noting that all three of the potential non-tenders have at least five years of service time, so they’d be free agent after 2026 even if you kept them. You don’t have the upside of having team control remaining if they do bounce back in 2026.

The other six players seem likely to be tendered. Jacob Webb was signed by the Rangers as a non-tender last offseason to a $1.25M base plus incentives. Webb pitched well enough — 3.00 ERA, 3.08 xERA — and was durable enough that he’s probably worth hanging onto, especially given how many holes the Rangers will have to fill in their pen. Sam Haggerty, signed as an NRI, had issues staying healthy, but the Rangers need righty bench bat to platoon with Carter or Pederson, and he’s good enough at that role, and cheap enough, that bringing him back at $1M and change makes sense.

Jake Burger wasn’t productive and couldn’t stay healthy, but he’s still cheap, and will have two years of team control remaining after 2026. Josh Jung’s inability to stay on the field is frustrating, but he’s still very cheap.

Of course, that doesn’t mean every one of these guys will be back next year. I’ve been expecting Ezequiel Duran to be traded just about every offseason since the Rangers acquired him. The Rangers could see Jung as someone who has more value being moved for another piece. Jake Burger could be traded yet again.

The non-tender deadline is November 22, so in roughly six weeks, we will know one way or the other.