Tyler Kinley is good and the Atlanta Braves should pick up his $5 million club option without even thinking about it. That’s it — that’s the article.
However, I know y’all enjoy coming to blog sites such as this one so you can get more than just a social media-sized take so let’s go ahead and expand on that take, shall we? So, in the midst of what initially seemed like a pretty strange trade deadline from Alex Anthopoulos and the Braves, Atlanta ended up in a weird spot where they weren’t selling off guys like Marcell Ozuna and/or Raisel Iglesias (mainly because a market never really materialized for those two) but were instead proceeding to get their plans for improving 2026’s squad underway early.
One of those guys who should be in the plans for 2026 is Tyler Kinley. Atlanta was able to rescue him from Colorado in exchange for Austin Smith and nearly from the moment he put on a Braves uniform, Kinley became one of the top arms in Atlanta’s bullpen at a time when they desperately needed help in that department. They still need help there (as evidenced by AA stating that that would be one of the positions “in the discussion” for improvement during this offseason) but at least they won’t have to look far when it comes to finding some initial help. Kinley’s initial stint with the Braves went about as well as everybody could’ve hoped for and again, bringing him back on the club option should really be a no-brainer.
Kinley finished his season with the Braves with 24 appearances, 25 innings pitched with an ERA of 0.72 (and an ERA- of 17, which is just wild), a FIP of 2.74 (68 FIP-, which is still great but more normal-looking) and 0.6 fWAR for the Braves, alone. For comparison’s sake, Kinley’s ERA with Colorado was all the way up at 5.66 (118 ERA-) and his FIP was at 4.18 (96 FIP-). Now granted, “Pitcher’s stats improve after leaving Colorado” is up there with “Dog chases car” when it comes to breaking news these days but at the same time, a change in scenery/pitching environment does not fully explain a guy cutting his ERA- down by a full 101 points by simply moving from Denver to Cobb County.
BRISTOL, TN – AUGUST 03: Tyler Kinley #45 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the 2025 MLB Speedway Classic presented by BulidSubmarines.com between the Atlanta Braves and the Cincinnati Reds at Bristol Motor Speedway on Sunday, August 3, 2025 in Bristol, Tennessee. (Photo by Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images) MLB Photos via Getty Images
While that’s certainly a factor, another factor could be that Kinley is back to where he was in 2022 before he ended up having to undergo surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon in his throwing elbow. The Rockies gave him a contract extension following a season where he looked to be on track to becoming something of an elite reliever. Before he had gone under the knife in June 2022, Kinley had pitched 24 innings over 25 appearances and sported a 0.75 ERA (16 ERA- which is, again, absurd) and a 1.74 FIP (42 FIP-). Again, that’s a relatively short sample size but you have to remember that he was doing that with his home park being Coors Field. The Rockies clearly felt like they had a gem of a reliever on their hands as evidenced by the fact that they handed him the contract extension after his injury.
Unfortunately it didn’t go well as Kinley fell victim to the usual trap of having to spend most of his time after the surgery rehabbing instead of fully focusing on improving as a pitcher and as such, both 2023 and 2024 ended up being lost seasons for him. Still, he was able to recover in 2025 with the Rockies to the point where Colorado was pretty publicly excited about what he could bring to the table ahead of this season. Here’s Thomas Harding of MLB.com talking about it:
Kinley has used the fastball 37.3 percent of the time and dropped his slider frequency to 29.4 percent this spring. The featured offering is a curveball — barely used in the past — that he’s throwing at a clip of 21.6 percent, with eye-catching effectiveness. And he’s using his changeup 11.8 percent of the time. His two-seam sinking fastball that he used for eight pitches last year has stayed in his pocket.
The 34-year-old Kinley has the same face, but hitters are going to have to deal with a new man behind it.
“It’s so refreshing,” Kinley said. “You feel empowered. You feel like this is new. They haven’t seen this yet, so you’re eager to use it, put it to the test. So far it’s been good.”
While he was unable to really harness it to its full potential while he was in Colorado, Kinley’s curveball ended up becoming an incredibly tough weapon for hitters to deal with once he got to the end of the season with the Braves. According to Statcast, Kinley’s curveball ended up having an opposing batting average of .054 against it, with an xBA of .106, an xWOBA of .147, a whiff percentage of near 45 percent and a Put Away percentage of 27.2 percent. Kinley’s curveball was an absolute nightmare for opposing hitters last season and while he did cut down on using it compared to how he was utilizing it during spring training, when he did break it out, it was mystifying to opposing batters.
ATLANTA, GEORGIA – SEPTEMBER 13: Tyler Kinley #45 of the Atlanta Braves pitches during the ninth inning against the Houston Astros at Truist Park on September 13, 2025 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Todd Kirkland/Getty Images) Getty Images
With that lethal curveball added to his arsenal, Kinley’s breaking stuff became elite in 2025. Kinley’s Run Value (via Statcast) on breaking pitches was in the 99th percentile this past season — folks, that’s what you want. That was as high as he’d finished in that department since the COVID-shortened season of 2020, which is when his breaking stuff landed him in the 91st percentile when it came to Run Value. He’s never going to blow anybody away with his heater but at the same time, he doesn’t really need to use it when he’s so good at commanding his slider as his primary pitch while using the curveball as a bit of an occasional death scythe. The potential for Kinley to eventually put it all together in order to become an effective reliever was always there — it just so happens that the Braves were the ones who were able to benefit from both the change of scenery and Kinley getting both healthy enough and confident enough in his stuff to truly deploy it in devastating fashion.
I’m not going to sit here and say that future success for Tyler Kinley with the Braves is a slam dunk — after all, relievers are still very volatile ballplayers and one season’s success tends to be just that: One season’s success. He’ll also be heading into his age-35 season next year and as we all know, the further players get from that age-30 milestone, the less and less likely it is for sustained success to happen. With that being said, Kinley has had a track record of being extremely effective in short bursts over the course of his career and he was also able to benefit from being completely healthy for the first time in a handful of years here in 2025. There are reasons to think that this could be the peak for Kinley but there’s also reason to believe that he’s still got plenty left in the tank as his career progresses.
Either way, I’m hoping that the Braves won’t overthink this and just give Kinley the $5 million and let him cook in their bullpen next season. Considering that the Rockies figured that he could’ve been a high-leverage guy for them as he signed that contract extension, I think this would be the perfect place for Kinley to realize his goals of being the top guy in a bullpen. This could end up being a very astute move on the part of Atlanta to bring him in when they did and it would be 100 percent worth the price tag if Kinley picks up in 2026 where he left off with Atlanta in 2025 and continues to be an extremely tough customer for opposing hitters to deal with going forward.