The Phillies are taking an unconventional approach to an elimination game.
Rob Thomson will hand the ball to Aaron Nola. The 11-year veteran had a forgettable 2025 regular season, posting a 6.01 ERA in 17 starts.
This will be just the third time in major-league history that a team has turned to a starter with a 6-plus ERA (minimum 50 regular-season innings) in a postseason elimination game.
The Phillies’ skipper will lean on the trust factor.
“He’s more comfortable starting,” Thomson said Tuesday. “Nola’s pitched some really big games for us over the last couple of years.”
It’s a gutsy move. Many believe it should be Ranger Suárez for Game 3. The southpaw has made eight starts and two relief outings in the postseason and has been stellar — a 1.43 ERA in 37 ⅔ innings with 40 strikeouts.
“I trust them both, don’t get me wrong,” Thomson said.
After starting lefties Cristopher Sánchez and Jesús Luzardo in Games 1 and 2, the Phils will likely force Dodgers manager Dave Roberts to construct a different lineup against the right-hander Nola.
Contrary to popular belief, the numbers do justify Nola getting the start over Suárez.
Against all the hitters on L.A.’s NLDS roster, Nola has been the far more effective pitcher in his career. Dodgers batters are slashing just .220/.267/.378 in 246 at-bats. That line jumps to .326/.375/.535 against Suárez.
Even with the favorable lefty-vs.-righty matchups (including switch-hitter Tommy Edman), lefties are just 24-for-127 (.189) against Nola. In the less favorable lefty-lefty matchups against Suárez (excluding Edman), they’re hitting .308 (8-for-28).
And Nola did, in fact, finish his injury-riddled season on a high note. In his final start, he fired a season-high eight innings, allowing just two hits and one earned run while striking out nine — an encouraging sign ahead of his biggest outing of the year.
Aaron Nola not only battled his tail off on the mound on Friday, he had to battle through his teammates farting during his postgame comments. All around, he was fantastic against the Twins.
“His last start was phenomenal,” Thomson said. “That’s the Nola we’ve seen before, and I’m banking on that’s what we’re going to get.”
Tonight, it’s not necessarily one or the other, because Thomson has already committed to bringing Suárez in out of the bullpen.
“You’re going to see Ranger,” Thomson said. “I’d be shocked if you don’t. I’d regret having either one of those guys not pitching in this series.”
And Suárez is no stranger to pitching in that role. He’s made 70 appearances in his career (regular season and postseason), pitching to a 2.87 ERA. His last outing in the bullpen, though? The 2022 World Series.
This move could also help the Phillies bridge the gap and avoid their struggling middle relief. From innings six through eight in the regular season, Phillies relievers posted a 4.50 ERA — the fourth-highest mark in the National League. Suárez seems to be a much safer option.
When the Phillies looked to have extreme rotation depth earlier this season, moving Suárez to the bullpen was already a conversation.
Back in June, the lefty emphasized that he was “open to do whatever it takes to help this team win.”
Now, the Phillies are desperate for a victory. A 96-win ballclub with the second-highest payroll in the National League getting swept in the opening round of the playoffs would be a tough pill to swallow — especially with their longest-tenured player making the start.