Zach Thompson gives you a preview, prediction and pick for tonight’s Game 4 between the Toronto Blue Jays and the New York Yankees.

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to move to the ALCS with a win on Wednesday night in the Bronx, while the Yankees will look to avoid elimination for the second straight game and force the ALDS back to Toronto for a deciding Game 5 on Friday night in Toronto.

Game 4 is scheduled for 7:08 p.m. ET this Wednesday as the third game of the four potential elimination games on the scoreboard.

The Blue Jays won the AL East on the last day of the regular season and enjoyed a bye in the Wild Card Series, while the Yankees took three games to eliminate the Red Sox last week. In the deciding game they got a masterpiece from rookie Cam Schlittler, who gets the ball again in Game 4 on Wednesday. The Blue Jays will counter with a bullpen game led by Louis Varland.
The Yankees are heavy home favorites at -180 on the Moneyline, with the run total for the game set at 8.5. Let’s preview this Wednesday night matchup with the help of some odds and lines on DraftKings Sportsbook.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 4 prediction, preview

Toronto has been mashing in this series, scoring 29 runs in three games, but the Yankees out-slugged them in Game 3 on Tuesday, 9-6, forcing this matchup on Wednesday. Schlittler pitched the game of his life against the Red Sox last week, but he looked much more hittable against the Jays in the regular season. He went 0-1 in his two starts against them, giving up 12 hits on six runs in 6 ⅔ innings with five strikeouts. Vladimir Guerrero, who I highlighted in my MLB DFS Picks for Wednesday went 4-for-5 against Schlittler, while Addison Barger went 2-for-4 with two RBI and a walk. George Springer went 1-for-2 with two walks.

Schlittler was solid during the regular season, going 4-3 with a 2.96 ERA in 14 starts, but he took it to another level with a 12-strikeout masterpiece against the Red Sox, allowing only five hits in eight shutout innings. He did finish the regular season strong as well with back-to-back excellent outings against the Orioles, allowing a total of one run over 12 ⅓ innings with 15 strikeouts in those two games.

The Blue Jays were one of the best teams in the majors this year at strikeout suppression, with an MLB-low 17.8% K% on the year and an average of only 6.8 strikeouts per game. It’ll be fascinating to see if Schlittler can come close to duplicating his success from his last outing.

The Yankees will have a much easier task against the Blue Jays bullpen led by Varland. Varland went 4-3 in his 74 games for the Twins and Jays, but he only served as opener one other time. He probably won’t be around for long, especially after pitching in each of the three games of the ALDS so far. He was tagged with the loss in Game 3 after serving up a three-run homer to Aaron Judge in the fourth inning.

After the game on Tuesday, manager John Schneider said “Everyone is available tomorrow.” Lefty Eric Lauer and righty Yariel Rodríguez could be the core of long relief, but the Jays can also mix in plenty of other options and piece the innings together. The Jays’ bullpen has been excellent, but it’s a tall order to ask them to keep the Yankees in check at home after their offense awoke on Tuesday with nine runs on 12 hits and home runs off the bats of Judge and Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Blue Jays vs. Yankees Game 3 pick, best bet

Best Bet: Vladimir Guerrero 2+ Total Bases (+111)

Guerrero is on fire at the plate and is completely locked in. He is 8-for-13 in the series with a home run in each of the first three games. He has a total of 17 total bases in three games for an average of 5.7 total bases per game. I love playing this as a ladder on Wednesday night and am fine with 4+ total bases at +283 or even 5+ at +566 if you’re looking for a longshot to mix in. Guerrero is 4-for-5 with a 0% whiff rate against Schlittler in their past meetings, but all four hits have been singles, which is why I’m sticking with 2+ total bases as my best bet of the game.

Strong Lean: Over 8.5 runs total runs (-108)

The three games in this series have had totals of 11, 20, and 15 runs. During the regular season, seven of the last 10 games between these two teams had at least nine runs scored. I don’t think Schlittler can be as good again, and the Blue Jays have the disciplined approach that should get him out of the game earlier as well. Since I also don’t trust Toronto’s bullpen, I think the over is a strong play.