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OF Trevor Larnach
Age on Opening Day 2026: 29
Service Time: Four years, 14 days
2023 Salary: $733,650
2024 Salary: $740,000
2025 Salary: $2.1 million
2026 MLB Trade Rumor Estimate: $4.7 million
Background: When the Minnesota Twins selected Larnach out of Oregon State University with the 20th overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, they believed they were adding a cornerstone bat to their future lineup. Larnach had just helped lead the Beavers to a College World Series championship, showcasing his polished left-handed swing and advanced approach at the plate. By the time he debuted in 2021, he was one of the organization’s most highly regarded prospects, a consensus top-100 player in baseball who projected to hit for both average and power.
His early big-league years, however, have been a roller coaster. Over his first four seasons in the majors, Larnach hit .236/.323/.403 (.726) with a 102 OPS+, showing flashes of the middle-of-the-order bat the Twins envisioned but never sustaining that success for long stretches. There were times when his power and patience carried the offense, but just as often, he’d drift into prolonged slumps where he struggled to make consistent contact.
For a player whose defense has graded as below average in the corner outfield, being merely a slightly above-average hitter wasn’t enough to cement his place as an everyday regular. Still, his 2024 season offered hope. Larnach was worth $11.6 million in value that year, according to FanGraphs, posting 1.4 fWAR with a 116 OPS+ in 112 games. He looked like he had finally turned the corner. But then came 2025, and with it, another regression.
Across 142 games, Larnach hit .250/.323/.404 (.727) with a 99 OPS+, and his defense dipped further to -4 Outs Above Average. He still hit the ball hard, ranking in the 70th percentile in Average Exit Velocity and above the 60th percentile in Hard Hit%, Squared Up%, and Walk Rate. The Twins tried to protect him by limiting exposure to left-handed pitching, giving him just over 100 plate appearances against southpaws, but he still posted an OPS 150 points lower in those matchups. However, the overall results didn’t match the quality of contact. FanGraphs valued his overall contribution at $1.8 million this season.
2025 Stats: 142 G, 567Â PA, .250/.323/.404 (.727), 17 HR, 24 2B, 1 3B, 60 RBI, 9.3 BB%, 21.5 K%
Twins Depth at His Position (Corner Outfield)
Matt Wallner – 40-man roster
Austin Martin – 40-man roster
James Outman – 40-man roster
Carson McCusker – 40-man roster
Alan Roden – 40-man roster
Emmanuel Rodriguez – 40-man roster
Triple-A: Walker Jenkins, Gabriel Gonzalez, Kala’i Rosario, Kyler Fedko
Double-A: Hendry Mendez, Maddux Houghton, Kyle Hess
Summary: The corner outfield is one of the deepest areas in the organization. With Rodriguez and Jenkins both projected as future franchise-building blocks, the Twins may soon have to make tough roster calls. Several other players already occupy 40-man spots, meaning Larnach could become expendable if the team needs space for younger, higher-upside talent.
Why the Twins Should Offer Him Arbitration
There’s still a compelling case for keeping Larnach around. The front office, led by Derek Falvey, clearly saw long-term potential when they invested a first-round pick in him. Sometimes, front offices are reluctant to cut ties with players they developed and believed in.
More importantly, Larnach has shown that he can be an above-average offensive contributor when things click. During the second half of 2024, while the Twins’ season was unraveling, he was one of the lone bright spots by slashing .272/.368/.443 (.811) with six home runs and nine doubles. That kind of production over a full season would make him a clear everyday player, and the Twins could reasonably hope he finds that form again.
At 28 years old, there’s still time for Larnach to carve out a steady MLB role, even if it’s as a platoon bat or bench contributor with pop from the left side.
Why the Twins Should Non-Tender Him
But this front office will also have to make financially motivated decisions this winter. The Twins are expected to trim payroll after a disappointing 92-loss season, and Larnach’s projected arbitration salary could make him a casualty. According to MLB Trade Rumors, he’s in line for the third-highest arbitration salary on the roster behind Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan.
When weighed against his uneven production and defensive shortcomings, the value may not be there. The Twins also have multiple younger and cheaper outfield options who can fill similar roles. Add in the looming arrivals of Jenkins and Rodriguez, and it becomes harder to justify Larnach’s cost when the team has bigger holes elsewhere, particularly in the infield and pitching staff.
If the Twins want to free up resources for offseason additions, non-tendering Larnach could be an unfortunate but practical move.
ProjectionÂ
Currently, it seems more likely that Larnach will be non-tendered this winter. The Twins’ outfield logjam and financial constraints make him a natural roster casualty. Still, the front office has shown patience with homegrown talent before. If Falvey and company believe Larnach can rediscover his 2024 form, they might give him one final opportunity to prove he belongs.
Whether that chance comes in Minnesota (or somewhere else) remains to be seen.
What should the Twins do with Larnach? Is he an easy DFA decision? Leave a comment and start the discussion.Â