Say what you want about the history of the Seattle Mariners, but the franchise has never lost a winner-take-all postseason game. They’ll put that on the line at home against the Detroit Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS tonight.
George Kirby to start Game 5 with all hands on deck for Mariners
You are probably familiar with the history. Perhaps you have even heard that they came back to win a decisive Game 5 in 1995 with their current hitting guru (some guy named Edgar Martinez) coming up with a clutch double to score a little known center fielder named Ken Griffey Jr. all the way from first base.
A few years later, the 2001 Mariners needed five games to dispatch with Cleveland before eventually falling in the ALCS to the Yankees.
They hadn’t won the division since that historic season… at least not until this year. And now they have another chance to win a decisive fifth game at home.
I’ll admit, it’s a little frustrating that this game needs to be played at all. The Mariners have a more talented team than Detroit. They scored more runs than the Tigers did this season and the depth of their rotation more than balances out the elite advantage Tarik Skubal provides. They beat the Tigers four times in six tries during the regular season, and that was before they really created their offensive juggernaut at the trade deadline. If these two teams played 162 times, I think the Mariners would win 85-90 times.
But they are only going to play one more time.
Hyphen’s keys for Mariners to beat Skubal again
Mariners manager Dan Wilson said in February that he saw the season as a series of 162 battles. The implication was that the team would go after every win, even while recognizing that the season is a six-month marathon. But some battles are more decisive than others and, at the risk of overdoing the analogy and assigning too much importance to a sporting event, Game 5 is the equivalent of D-Day or the Battle of the Bulge. The first a major turning point in World War II, the latter the final moment that buried the German hopes. In short, these are the ones you have to win.
And to do so, you have to plan and play accordingly.
Baseball seasons are long, complicated affairs with an infinite number of decisions to be made. Among them, teams weigh the pros and cons of aggressiveness versus safety, the importance of each individual moment or game versus the long-term effects into the future, and the need for steadiness and stability versus applying the numbers to take advantage of the best matchups.
Those decisions are hard and they involve a tremendous amount of balance. And while there will certainly be difficult decisions in this deciding duel, it should be at least a little easier to lean into a simple process to make them.
In short, the philosophy is: there is no tomorrow. There is no more need to balance. Make the best decision for right now and worry about later… well, later.
George Kirby will start this game for the Mariners. But how far should he go? That depends on how he pitches and when he runs into trouble. The leash should be short. The trust, which Dan has stressed throughout the last seven months, needs to be weighed against the potential downsides of ignoring the numbers or worry about what might happen later in the game.
With all hands on deck, finding, predicting and choosing the right matchups will be an even greater premium.
The 2025 postseason has seen managers take a bifurcated approach to starting pitching. With some exceptions, the top pitchers (like Skubal, Boston’s Garrett Crochet, Philadelphia’s Cristopher Sanchez and the Dodgers’ Tyler Glasnow) have gone deeper into games. Some have even been able to work through the lineup a second or third time. But those not in that top category have been treated differently.
Other pitchers, even some successful pitchers having good nights, have been pulled before trouble can arise. For example, Matthew Boyd is the best starter on the Cubs this season. He started Game 1 of the wild card round, Game 1 of the NLDS and Game 4 of the NLDS (an elimination game for the Cubs). In those starts, he lasted just 4.1 innings (in which he gave up just one run), 0.2 innings (in which he got shelled) and 4.2 innings (in which he gave up no runs). That tells one story, but the postseason is littered with them.
Heading into Game 5, the Mariners have to know their plan, and know what can make them deviate from it.
Kirby has dominated opponents the second time through the order. In fact, his numbers this season have actually been better the second time through than the first. That tells me that when he is off, we tend to know right away. If he’s off, Luis Castillo should be ready to go Friday.
But Kirby’s numbers plummet the third time he faces a lineup. Like, his OPS against goes up by some .340 points. He goes from dominant ace to journeyman tomato can. And if you factor in the potential of facing Kerry Carpenter, who has owned Kirby in his career and in this series, the possibility of Kirby getting a third trip through the Tigers’ lineup should be viewed with extreme caution.
The Mariners are the more talented team in this series. If they can get into the most advantageous matchups and situations, they can bury the Tigers, even with the prospect of facing Skubal once again. They will need to play clean. They will need to do the things they do well. They need to run and be aggressive. They need to work counts and get to the bullpen. They’ll need to hit the ball out of the park. And they’ll need to execute their pitches in key spots.
But they can do it. And if they do, we will have a story and a memory to last a lifetime.
More Seattle Mariners ALDS coverage
• Could Arozarena’s big-game pedigree emerge for M’s in Game 5?
• Drayer: Mariners confident in their resiliency ahead of Game 5
• Who’s to say the Mariners can’t beat Tarik Skubal again?
• What stands out to Jon Morosi as ALDS goes to a Game 5
• What to know as Seattle Mariners head to deciding ALDS Game 5
