LOS ANGELES — This era of Phillies baseball has, if nothing else, been governed by the unpredictable.
And not just because you’d have predicted after the special 2022 postseason run that we wouldn’t be sitting here three postseasons later still waiting for a world championship to materialize.
At every turn, the Phillies have seemed to play out the exact opposite of the expectations.
A shortfall of stars in October in 2022? Go out and get another one in 2023 in Trea Turner, then regress a round in the postseason. Then another the next year.
A bullpen failure in 2023? Build a bulletproof bullpen that featured two All-Stars in 2024, acquire another at the deadline, then see it implode in 2024.
A hunger all season to get to Red October, to have players and management and everyone with access to a stable internet connection in the Delaware Valley trumpet how great the atmosphere at Citizens Bank Park is, then to lose five of the last six games in supposedly hospitable environs.
And for 2025, a postseason that the Phillies broached with the trepidation of missing All-Star ace Zack Wheeler, in which the starting pitching the remaining Phillies produced was outstanding yet still helped them survive just four games against the Dodgers.
So with that as the lens, what seemingly unorthodox viewpoint might be the right one to attack this offseason? Perhaps it’s by turning to someone who doesn’t seem to be in the team’s future plans.
Nick Castellanos sat at his locker in the corner of the visitor’s clubhouse at Dodger Stadium and didn’t shirk questions Thursday night.
He spoke with paternal care about how he raced in from right field to put his arm around Orion Kerkering as the reliever left the field after committing the game-ending error in the 11th inning of Game 4.
He indulged the media about some of his view of why the Phillies, while progressing from a Wild Card and a World Series trip in 2022 have regressed to 96 wins and consecutive National League East titles with matching first-round NLDS exits.
“I do know that we’ve had four chances to win a World Series, and we were the closest in 2022 and then we fell shorter, and then we fell shorter, and then we finished the exact same as last year,” Castellanos said. “It’s unfortunate, because I think that we have the most talented team in baseball. We did not play up to what we’re capable of.”
The Phillies have gotten to this point through consistency, in approach, in manager, in lineup construction. And in doing so, they’ve authored reminiscent playoff exists each of the last three years, with bullpen implosions, AWOL power hitters and no-shows in the clutch.
There are a lot of positive things to retain, but retaining all of them to attempt to do the same things in the postseason once again, that informs the Groundhog Day feeling to the locker room Thursday night.
Things must change, and they come at the risk of losing ground from the positives that have been built.
But this core has clearly hit its ceiling, and it doesn’t involve a parade down Broad Street. So if that is the goal, then an executive with a Hall of Fame resume in Dave Dombrowski has to make bold choices again.
Does that mean moving on from Rob Thomson?
The Phillies may not reach the postseason without his steady hand so consistently, but they may win a world championship with him, a tautology worth of Dombrowski’s salary.
Does that mean spending big on Kyle Schwarber or J.T. Realmuto, both veterans on the wrong side of 30 coming off strong years, or finding the next version of them in their 20s?
Does the uncertainty over Wheeler move the needle on how much they might be willing to pay Ranger Suarez?
Or is a larger roster refurbishment required?
There’s an irony in Castellanos supplying the valuable insight, given that he may have played his last game as a Phillie.
His production fell this year, and his defensive flaws became even more glaring, that he became a part-time player, a role he initially bristled at, with one year and $20 million left on his five-year deal. But Castellanos had three RBIs in the playoffs, including the only one of Game 4, which entitles him to some latitude.
Castellanos used it judiciously, pointing the lens at himself and the ways he could be better, first. But he also articulated a guiding principle that could be useful for the group at-large.
“The regular season is not the postseason,” he said. “Me now being in the playoffs six times or whatever, they’re two completely different animals. The season is one thing. Your talent can get you to the playoffs, but once you’re in the tournament, it’s completely different. And I think that as a whole organization, once we get into the tournament, we’ve regressed over the last four years.”
Stopping that regression requires action. Action requires boldness.
The Phillies, given their recent run of championship-less success, have something to lose in that risk. But after another October cratering, the appetite to take those risks should be bigger.
Contact Matthew De George at mdegeorge@delcotimes.com.