Should Detroit Tigers worry about Cleveland Guardians in AL Central?
On “Days of Roar,” Cleveland Guardians beat writer Paul Hoynes checks in about the Detroit Tigers in the AL Central race with two weeks remaining.
The Detroit Tigers still have the best record in the American League Central.
That is a fact.
Manager A.J. Hinch went out of his way to remind everyone that the Tigers — not the Cleveland Guardians — remain in first place with six games remaining in the 2025 season, even as the baseball world talks about the Guardians stealing the division.
The standings say first place; the play on the field says collapse.
“We’re going to wake up tomorrow in first place,” Hinch said Sunday, Sept. 21, after a 6-2 loss to the Atlanta Braves, the Tigers’ sixth in a row, “with our destiny controlled by us against a team that’s been as hot as you can get in baseball, and we get to play them in a three-game series. Sign me up.”
The stage is set for the series between rivals that is all but guaranteed to determine the AL Central champion: The Tigers and Guardians are ready to clash in three games from Tuesday-Thursday at Progressive Field in Cleveland.
Entering Tuesday, the Tigers (85-71) have a one-game lead over the Guardians (84-72) in the AL Central, but the Guardians have a 6-4 record in the 13-game season series, which is used to determine the tiebreaker.
Here’s an example: If the Tigers win two of their final six games, the Guardians need to win just three of their six to repeat as AL Central champions.
“This isn’t what we expected,” said first baseman Spencer Torkelson, hitting .284 with an .824 OPS in 18 games in September, “but this is as real as it gets in the regular season.”
The Tigers are collapsing.
The Guardians are climbing.
Not only have the Tigers lost nine of 10 games (including three to the Guardians), but they’ve also dropped 18 of 25, part of a 28-37 record since July 7 – immediately following a three-game sweep of the Guardians in Cleveland on July 4-6. The Guardians, meanwhile, have won 10 of 11 and 15 of 17, building a 44-24 record over that same span.
“I feel like we’re trying our best to find solutions and not just complain about what is going on,” said Hinch, who has watched the Guardians surge from 15½ games back on July 8 – their low point in the division – to one game back entering Tuesday’s series opener (6:40 p.m., FanDuel Sports Network Detroit). “I continue to say that we control all of this, and we do, but obviously, we need to find results and solutions, not just identify the issues.”
The Tigers’ collapse has been a 65-game team effort. Since July 7, the starters have a 4.76 ERA, the relievers a 4.65 ERA and the offense has averaged 4.42 runs per game.
The Guardians’ climb has been a 68-game team effort. Since July 7, the starters own a 3.61 ERA, the relievers a 2.96 ERA and the offense has averaged 4.47 runs per game.
“The opportunity is still in front of us,” said right-hander Casey Mize, who isn’t scheduled to start until Friday against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park in Boston. “As bad as it’s been, we’re going to have two tough series, but it’s still in front of us. We can flip the switch and make it happen.”
Right now, the Guardians are the better team on the field, even though the Tigers remain the better team in the standings. The Tigers, however, have the chess piece that could sway the upcoming three-game series: left-hander Tarik Skubal.
Skubal — the 2024 AL Cy Young winner and the 2025 Cy Young favorite — is set to start Tuesday’s series opener against the Guardians. He is also lined up to start Sunday in the final game of the season against the Red Sox. The 28-year-old owns an AL-leading 2.23 ERA with 30 walks and 233 strikeouts across 189â…“ innings in 30 starts.
Once again, the Tigers need Skubal to save them.
A win from their ace could flip the momentum in the biggest series of the season.
“We can handle it because we have a good team,” Hinch said. “The only thing we can do is play the schedule, and we’ve been talking about that. I know everyone has to be tired of the same answers, and we’re tired of the same results. Exciting week of baseball ahead and the biggest challenge this team has faced.”
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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