Analyzing Detroit Tigers win vs Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of ALDS
Evan Petzold and Jeff Seidel break down the Detroit Tigers’ 9-3 win over the Seattle Mariners in Game 4 of the ALDS on Wednesday, Oct. 8, 2025.
SEATTLE — Rain won’t stop Game 5 of the ALDS.
The Detroit Tigers won’t have a rain delay or a postponement for their winner-take-all showdown against the Seattle Mariners on Friday, Oct. 10, at T-Mobile Park, but the weather will decide whether the roof is open or closed.
The game is scheduled to begin at 8:08 p.m.
“T-Mobile is legendary for the feeling that it invokes in players and coaches and whoever is out there,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said before Friday’s game. “This is an electric place, and this is an electric fanbase. Our guys really do feed off that energy.”
As of 7:30 p.m., the roof remains closed at T-Mobile Park because it had been raining — and there’s rain in the forecast for 9-10 p.m. Left-hander Tarik Skubal is starting for the Tigers, opposed by Mariners right-hander George Kirby.
For ballparks with retractable roofs, MLB commissioner Rob Manfred — or another designated official — makes all decisions regarding the roof during the postseason, in consultation with the home team and the umpire crew chief. (During the regular season, the home team is responsible for deciding whether or not to begin the game with the roof open or closed.)
In 2025, the Mariners played 10 home games with the roof closed during the regular season, posting a 5-5 record — a .500 winning percentage. In their 71 other home games, the Mariners went 46-25 — a .648 winning percentage.
Both teams are better on offense without a roof.
It’s only a 10-game sample, but the Mariners hit .182 with a .602 OPS with the roof closed at T-Mobile Park. With the roof open, the Mariners hit .235 with a .715 OPS in their other 71 home games.
Meanwhile, the Tigers hit .214 with a .624 OPS in 17 games under a roof in 2025, spanning all MLB ballparks, compared to hitting .250 with a .742 OPS in their other 145 games.
T-Mobile Park is a pitcher-friendly ballpark regardless, but offense gets even worse when the roof is closed.
From 2023-25, T-Mobile Park produced a park factor of 83 for run-scoring with the roof open – 100 is league average – and a park factor of 77 with the roof closed.
Contact Evan Petzold at epetzold@freepress.com or follow him @EvanPetzold.
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