The Cubs forced Game 5 with their win on Thursday night, and now look to come back from a 0-2 series deficit in the NLDS. To do so, they’ll have to defeat the Brewers at American Family Field for their third straight elimination-game victory.
The first two games in Milwaukee saw Craig Counsell‘s starting pitchers last a total of 3.1 innings. Matthew Boyd crumbled after a critical error by Nico Hoerner, and Shōta Imanaga followed that up two days later by allowing two crucial home runs. Jameson Taillon and Boyd both did well at Wrigley Field, continuing the Cubs’ excellence at home. But as they travel north for a winner-take-all Game 5, everyone seems torn on who should start.
Although Aaron Civale or Cade Horton (slim chance) could be in play, the best odds are on Imanaga or Colin Rea. The former threw only 46 pitches on Monday and would be on regular rest. Home runs have been a major problem him, as he’s allowed three in just 6.2 postseason innings after giving up 20 in his last 12 regular-season starts. That’s been the Cubs’ downfall in two of their three playoff losses, so tempting fate by giving him the ball again has many people concerned.
Rea recorded 3.1 scoreless innings in Game 2, acting as the mop-up arm to preserve the bullpen. He posted a 3.95 ERA with 127 strikeouts in 159.1 innings during the regular season, and he finished the season on a high note. The righty had a 2.63 ERA in September, closing things with an outing against the Reds in which he struck out 11 batters and a seven-K scoreless start against the Cardinals.
One other possibility to see some action, even though starting is a longshot, is Ben Brown. He has stood out when he faces the Brewers and threw two scoreless innings in Game 1, but hasn’t pitched since. The Cubs put Brown on the roster to get strikeouts, and this may be the perfect opportunity to deploy him.
If we’re going off recent performance, Rea seems like the clear choice. He’s been an underrated member of the pitching staff, and taking the mound in a big game against his former team would be a fun revenge story. Imanaga could be used later in the game as the situation dictates, but having him start against a team that just destroyed him doesn’t make sense.
Given the way home runs have defined this series, not to mention their increased importance in postseason success overall, the Cubs need someone on the mound who can limit the longball. In addition to his big games late in the season, Rea has allowed just one homer over his last 12 appearances (61.2 IP). This is by far the biggest game of Counsell’s Cubs tenure, and his decision on who starts it could determine which team moves on to face the Dodgers.