CINCINNATI (WKRC) – The Cincinnati Reds finished last season 83-79 and returned to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, but there are still plenty of questions left to answer following a season in which the team finished in third place in the National League Central Division.
At the forefront: the roster is a bit in flux. There are several key free agents — which includes pitchers Nick Martinez and Emilio Pagan, outfielder Austin Hays, designated hitter Miguel Andujar, and late-season acquisition in starter Zack Littell — and there is some expected roster upheaval.
There are also 14 Reds players up for raises as part of MLB arbitration. This lets players with three to six years of service negotiate pay with their teams. If no deal is reached by mid-January, a three-person panel chooses either the player’s or team’s proposed salary—no middle ground.
Matt Swartz created a model more than a decade ago to project salaries for arbitration eligible players taking into account several factors — position, role, stats, playing time, etc.– and he is typically one of the most accurate. Here are his listed numbers for Reds players, via MLBTradeRumors. Service time figures in years, listed in parentheses below, are official and then the projected arbitration salary:
Brady Singer (5.156): $11.9MMSantiago Espinal (5.149): $2.9MMGavin Lux (5.114): $5MMTyler Stephenson (5.056): $6.4MMIan Gibaut (4.077): $1.5MMSam Moll (4.023): $1.2MMNick Lodolo (4.000): $4.3MMGraham Ashcraft (3.130): $1.4MMTJ Friedl (3.112): $4.9MMTony Santillan (3.099): $2.4MMSpencer Steer (3.035): $4.5MMWill Benson (3.003): $1.7MMMatt McLain (2.140): $2.6MMBrandon Williamson (2.139): $800K
The Reds payroll was $136 million this past season, per spotrac.com. That ranked No. 24 out of 30 MLB teams. Expect that number to increase heading into the 2026 season. But the question is… by how much?