The Red Sox’ season is over, even if Major League Baseball’s postseason is just heating up. That means it’s a good time to look back at our staff predictions from late March — and assess how we did.
As always, this exercise is a humbling one. Even two Red Sox beat writers, a Red Sox columnist and a general sports columnist at a major publication make mistakes. We got some things right, though, too. So how did we do?
AMERICAN LEAGUE PLAYOFF PICTURE:
DIVISION WINNERS:
COTILLO: Yankees, Royals, Rangers
MASON: Orioles, Royals, Rangers
MCADAM: Yankees, Royals, Rangers
SMITH: Yankees, Tigers, Rangers
VAUTOUR: Yankees, Tigers, Rangers
WILD-CARD TEAMS:
COTILLO: Red Sox, Astros, Blue Jays
MASON: Red Sox, Mariners, Yankees
MCADAM: Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners
SMITH: Red Sox, Mariners, Orioles
VAUTOUR: Red Sox, Twins, Royals
ALCS:
COTILLO: Rangers over Royals in 6 games
MASON: Rangers over Orioles in 7 games
MCADAM: Rangers over Red Sox in 6 games
SMITH: Rangers over Red Sox in 6 games
VAUTOUR: Rangers over Tigers in 6 games
HOW WE DID: Needless to say, the group was a little too bullish on a Rangers club that could never fully put it together and finished exactly at .500 at 81-81. Not only are they not headed to the World Series, but they didn’t make the playoffs, either.
The postseason picks were a little better, even if all five of us went 0-for-3 on division winners. Smith led the pack by getting four of the six postseason teams correct, albeit in the wrong order. The rest of us went 3-for-6. No one believed Cleveland would get in. Cotillo was the only Toronto believer. Everyone thought the Red Sox would be a wild card team, and they were.
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AL EAST FINISHING ORDER:
COTILLO: Yankees, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Orioles, Rays
MASON: Orioles, Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays
MCADAM: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays
SMITH: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays, Rays
VAUTOUR: Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Rays, Blue Jays
HOW WE DID: Not great. The AL East-winning Blue Jays got zero votes for first place and were cast as basement-dwellers by most of the group. We all had the Red Sox second, not third. Mason was way off with that Baltimore pick. The O’s, of course, won just 75 games.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE PLAYOFF PICTURE:
DIVISION WINNERS:
COTILLO: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
MASON: Phillies, Reds, Dodgers
MCADAM: Phillies, Cubs, Dodgers
SMITH: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
VAUTOUR: Braves, Cubs, Dodgers
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WILD-CARD TEAMS:
COTILLO: Mets, Diamondbacks, Padres
MASON: Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves
MCADAM: Diamondbacks, Mets, Braves
SMITH: Phillies, Mets, Diamondbacks
VAUTOUR: Phillies, Mets, Padres
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NLCS:
COTILLO: Dodgers over Mets in 6 games
MASON: Dodgers over Phillies in 7 games
MCADAM: Phillies over Dodgers in 7 games
SMITH: Dodgers over Phillies in 6 games
VAUTOUR: Braves over Phillies in 7 games
HOW WE DID: Three of us have one of our World Series picks alive with the Dodgers beating the Phillies and returning to the NLCS. The other we thought would be there… well, they won’t be.
The National League was more chalky than the American League, so the picks look a little better. No one had the Brewers winning the Central, but we were a perfect 5-for-5 on the Dodgers and both Mason and McAdam had two of the three divisional picks correct with the third team sneaking in as a Wild Card.
None of us believed in the Brewers, who won 97 games. The Mets’ collapse cost our picks dearly. Vautour led the pack with four correct postseason picks. The other four of us had three each.
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WORLD SERIES:
COTILLO: Dodgers over Rangers in 6 games
MASON: Rangers over Dodgers in 7 games
MCADAM: Phillies over Rangers in 6 games
SMITH: Dodgers over Rangers in 6 games
VAUTOUR: Rangers over Braves in 7 games
HOW WE DID: The beat guys (Cotillo and Smith) still have a chance at a correct World Series pick if the Dodgers repeat. Of course, the opponent won’t be correct. Vautour’s World Series would pit an 81-win team against a 76-win club. Nails.
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AMERICAN LEAGUE AWARDS:
AL MVP:
COTILLO: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
MASON: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
MCADAM: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
SMITH: Bobby Witt Jr., Royals
VAUTOUR: Aaron Judge, Yankees
HOW WE DID: It’s Judge vs. Cal Raleigh for the AL MVP, so Vautour has a chance at getting that one right despite being completely chalky with his prediction. Witt had another stellar year, so he wasn’t a bad pick either. But it’s a two-horse race.
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AL CY YOUNG:
COTILLO: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
MASON: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
MCADAM: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
SMITH: Garrett Crochet, Red Sox
VAUTOUR: Tarik Skubal, Tigers
HOW WE DID: Genius-level stuff here from the group, who went 5-for-5 pegging the two candidates to win this award.
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AL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
COTILLO: Roman Anthony, Red Sox
MASON: Roman Anthony, Red Sox
MCADAM: Jackson Jobe, Tigers
SMITH: Jasson Domínguez, Yankees
VAUTOUR: Kristian Campbell, Red Sox
HOW WE DID: Anthony will receive votes and likely finish in the top three, so that’s not a bad pick from Cotillo or Mason. Jobe’s candidacy ended in June when he had Tommy John surgery. Domínguez had an OK year but nothing close to what Anthony or either Athletics rookie (Nick Kurtz and Jacob Wilson) did. Campbell, of course, didn’t play in the majors after mid-June. That pick looked much better in late April.
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NATIONAL LEAGUE AWARDS:
NL MVP:
COTILLO: Francisco Lindor, Mets
MASON: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
MCADAM: Elly De La Cruz, Reds
SMITH: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers
VAUTOUR: Juan Soto, Mets
HOW WE DID: This is a lesson for all. Pick Ohtani every year, or lose. Mason and Smith should win this one handily. Soto will find himself on the ballot. Lindor, too. De La Cruz’s Reds made the postseason despite a good, not great, season from him.
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NL CY YOUNG:
COTILLO: Dylan Cease, Padres
MASON: Paul Skenes, Pirates
MCADAM: Sandy Alcantara, Marlins
SMITH: Paul Skenes, Pirates
VAUTOUR: Corbin Burnes, Diamondbacks
HOW WE DID: The National League dominance from Mason and Smith continues. Skenes is the easy pick here and both of them nailed it. Cease didn’t have a great year. Alcantara had a 5.36 ERA. Burnes’ first year in Arizona was a disaster as he had Tommy John in June.
NL ROOKIE OF THE YEAR:
COTILLO: Matt Shaw, Cubs
MASON: Bubba Chandler, Pirates
MCADAM: Matt Shaw, Cubs
SMITH: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
VAUTOUR: Roki Sasaki, Dodgers
HOW WE DID: We were all over the place on this one and no one will likely be right. Cotillo and McAdam had the same team as the presumptive favorite, Cade Horton, but not the right player. Chandler didn’t debut until late August. Sasaki has been a postseason revelation for the Dodgers but was limited to just 36 ⅓ innings in the regular season.
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RED SOX PREDICTIONS:
RED SOX RECORD / PLACE IN AL EAST:
COTILLO: 87-75 / 2nd
MASON: 89-73 / 2nd
MCADAM: 90-72 / 2nd
SMITH: 89-73 / 2nd
VAUTOUR: 88-74 / 2nd
HOW WE DID: Right on the money, if you look at the record and not the place in the AL East. The Red Sox finished third, not second, but they were exactly in the ballpark of where we thought they’d be. Mason and Smith, again, were on the money by correctly predicting 89 wins. Cotillo was off by two, Vautour and McAdam by one.
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RED SOX MVP:
COTILLO: Triston Casas
MASON: Alex Bregman
MCADAM: Garrett Crochet
SMITH: Rafael Devers
VAUTOUR: Triston Casas
HOW WE DID: McAdam wins this round with Crochet, Trevor Story and even Roman Anthony likely at the top of the list for this award. Cotillo was way off, as was Smith, though no one could have envisioned that Devers would be traded in mid-June. Bregman had a case but the injury, then second-half struggles, eliminated him.
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RED SOX PITCHER OF THE YEAR:
COTILLO: Garrett Crochet
MASON: Garrett Crochet
MCADAM: Garrett Crochet
SMITH: Garrett Crochet
VAUTOUR: Garrett Crochet
HOW WE DID: Ding, ding, ding. A perfect 5-for-5. You could make a case for Aroldis Chapman, too.
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THREE RED SOX PREDICTIONS, INCLUDING A BOLD ONE:
COTILLO: While Aroldis Chapman is the Opening Day closer, Garrett Whitlock leads the team in saves; neither Ceddanne Rafaela or Masataka Yoshida are on the roster by July 1; Boston acquires a catcher at the deadline, potentially Philadelphia’s J.T. Realmuto (bold)
MASON: Alex Bregman wins a Gold Glove at third base; Garrett Crochet makes 25 starts and goes 160 innings but does not win the Cy Young; Triston Casas is traded by the end of the calendar year (bold)
MCADAM: The closer in August and September is not currently on the roster; Tanner Houck is a major disappointment in 2025; Ceddanne Rafaela is going to have a monster season and be the most improved player on the club (bold)
SMITH: Triston Casas hits 30+ homers and makes the All-Star Game; Tanner Houck regresses but Brayan Bello takes a major step forward; Marcelo Mayer will get a chance to play second base in the majors and replace Kristian Campbell at some point (bold)
VAUTOUR: The saves leader is not currently on the roster; Ceddanne Rafaela makes the All-Star team; Garrett Crochet starts the All-Star Game for the AL (bold)
HOW WE DID: Pretty horrible, honestly.
Cotillo was way off on Chapman and Rafaela, though technically correct on Yoshida (kinda). There was no catcher trade but Carlos Narváez did emerge as the guy over Connor Wong.
Mason would have had a chance on Bregman if he had stayed healthy. He’ll likely be correct on Crochet. The Casas pick still has time to be proven right but it’s hard to trade a guy coming off a catastrophic knee injury.
McAdam also missed on Chapman, who the group didn’t have much belief in. The Houck call was spot-on as the righty struggled, then had Tommy John. Rafaela looked the part offensively for a couple weeks but ultimately struggled too much to consider as “most improved.”
Smith, like Cotillo, was big on Casas and proven wrong. The Houck/Bello pick was a good one. Mayer did play second base, but not for very long. He did replace Campbell at one point.
Vautour continued the excellent streak of Chapman doubt with a dud, then another with Rafaela making the All-Star team (he did not). Crochet could have had a case to start the All-Star Game but once again, came in second to Skubal.
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