The Texas Rangers have missed the postseason in each of the last two seasons after their World Series run. They’ll now proceed into the offseason with a to-do list to buck that trend.
Their free agency decisions — both internal and external — will help determine that. We’ll break down the club’s pitching outlook this week. Today’s topic: starters, specifically their own that’ll hit the market after the World Series wraps.
Overview: The Rangers fielded baseball’s best rotation last season and will return the co-ace committee of right-handers Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi. But, outside of second-year right-hander Jack Leiter, the back half of the staff remains in flux with a host of veterans bound for free agency.
The quartet of right-hander Merrill Kelly, right-hander Jon Gray, right-hander Tyler Mahle and left-hander Patrick Corbin will be free to sign with any team upon conclusion of the postseason. The Rangers will almost certainly need a veteran presence behind the three returners. It’s just a matter of how much they’re ready to pay in order to secure that.
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The big fish: Kelly. The Rangers dealt a trio of prospects to the Arizona Diamondbacks at July’s trade deadline with the hope that right-hander Merrill Kelly could fortify their rotation for a playoff push.
Kelly, a candid veteran who once shut Texas down in a World Series game at Globe Life Field, largely did his part and allowed three or fewer runs in 8 of the 10 starts he made for the Rangers after the deadline. The story of these Rangers, of course, was that the lackluster offense didn’t carry its necessary load.
The 36-year-old is expected to earn an average annual salary of $15 million per year according to Spotrac. His career track record (a 3.77 ERA in more than 1,000 innings) would provide the Rangers as good of a third option as any rotation in baseball features behind deGrom and Eovaldi. The contract he could draw on the open market, though, may be diametrically opposed with the club’s plan to slim payroll and its need to refine an offense that kept it out of the postseason in the first place.
The middle man: Mahle. He was on the injured list more than he wasn’t in his two years with the Rangers and hasn’t made more than 16 starts in any any of his last three seasons.
That’s not the best pitch for Mahle’s services. Here’s what is: the 30-year-old was off to a career-best start before shoulder fatigue cost him half of the season. Mahle yielded a 2.34 ERA in his first 14 starts before he hit the injured list and allowed just one run in two September starts once he returned.
Mahle, like Kelly, is a more-than-serviceable third or fourth rotation option if healthy. The keyword is healthy. Mahle signed with the Rangers in the midst of Tommy John surgery recovery and dealt with multiple shoulder issues in his two-year tenure with the team. That makes his potential contract — which Spotract projects to be worth $5.5 million per season — difficult to project.
He’s worth consideration for a return if the Rangers can land him on a team-friendly or favorable deal. That may change if another team believes his 16-start sample size last season is worth a larger, longer-term contract.
The value pick: Corbin. The Rangers signed the 36-year-old in the last week of spring training and parlayed that into 30 starts.
Corbin is realistically a fifth starter that can guarantee innings and durability above all else. He was one of just 43 pitchers in baseball last season who started 30 or more games and his 200 starts since the 2019 season are the second-most among all pitchers in that span.
There’s value in certainty and the Rangers, who as of now may need to lean on rookie right-handers Kumar Rocker and Jose Corniell next season, could use that in the rotation. But Corbin’s value last season was partly earmarked by the league-minimum contract he was signed to. The Rangers will need to determine how much, if at all, they want to exceed that by. Corbin will need to determine if he wants to return to a rotation where he’ll be the fifth option and liable to a bullpen move if deemed necessary.
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